TinGull

HAHAHAHA!!!! thats awesome!!!

Happy February! Yesterday we saw some good buying post FOMC announcement. When there’s good buying, there has to be also some good selling to those buyers. Who were the sellers? We’ll wait for the next couple days to pan out and see. Our TPO count shows 295/112 in favor of the sellers. Our numbers are as follows for ER2: VAH: 803.3 POC: 798.9 VAL: 795.1 As you can, a very very wide value area. Price has traded outside value yesterday afternoon, only to come crashing back down into value within the last 30 minutes of trading to end only slightly above the value area. That, I think, is something to keep an eye on. Also, the fact that all other indices are trading up right now, but the russell is in the red is also something to note. A lot of times the Russell leads things, so keep a close eye there. While we have a chance to open into value, we might look for potential short setups being so far away from the bottom of this range we’ve been in. Short at VAH IF we open inside of value would be a nice play. If we open outside of value and very close to the VAH, an opening TICK play could be in effect. Watch for positive ticks on the russell and price to start to make a little run for it and jump on. With the value area as wide as it is, I’d definitely look to the POC as an area of support/resistance today. Price will need a place to rest inside the value area, and I think that is a likely spot. As I said, we’re at the top of a range: I’ll be weary of longs until we get a close above that 807 level. We couldn’t even close above all time highs yesterday. Definitely something to watch.

HA! When I wanted to ask a girl to the prom, I requested the help of the 8Ball...and boy was it wrong. Became the laughing stock of my high school! HA!!! Damn 8balls....

I like the SOH method...Sit On Hands

James, for what it's worth...look at my bars...looks very similar. Looks you hit a winner here That big divergence coming into VAH on the ER2...money in the BANK!

The final day of January, and a Fed Day Should be fun! The ER saw some seriously choppy action yesterday lending us a pretty mild looking profile. Our levels are as follows: VAH - 801.5 POC - 799.3 VAL - 798.1 This gives us a VERY small value area of 3.40. Price right now is inside of value, but we have a steady stream of news to contend with this morning. IF we end up opening inside of value, I would look to short the VAH and possibly long the VAL...with the consideration that we are still near these "critical mass" levels of 800-805. IF ER was to break 805, then I'll be looking long. Remember too, that ER loves the POC. So, always keep that in mind. Our POC for today also likes up with the high of 1/29, POC from 1/16 which was also the high of 1/25. So...we did break that, but are trading right there as of this moment. The TPO count for yesterday favored sellers by a small amount. 164/147. Always good to keep in mind what other time frame investor had control of the day going into the new day. Key areas: 800.00 remains key. POC is there, many highs from previous days...big round number...it's key. We do have a naked POC from the 26th below us at 786.2. Price usually likes to gravitate to those naked POC's, so watch for that level coming in the next short while.

Glad to have you back aboard the analysis train Great stuff!

Anytime. Hopefully get another one up today to further add fuel to this fire

no worries. For MP and ER...ER is married and FAITHFUL to Market Profile. As far as daily pivots, I'll look at some charts and let you know this morning in the chat room. Im just getting ready for the day right now. But I can say that ER2 respects all levels of MP from the VAL-POC-VAH. All of those levels you need to watch for, where YM tended to follow VAL-VAH only. And the special situations apply very well to the Russell too. Some reallly nice MP stuff goes down with the Russell.

Hi wsam...yup, it's a Market Profile analysis thread. I assume you were poking fun at the analysis with your magic 8 ball remark?

Excellent Robert!!! Breakthroughs are the most fun part of trading for me

For those that have access to the Russell2000 TICK, this makes for a very interesting setup on the ER2. It combines the TICK of the R2K with the 34ema on a 233tick chart. CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO ER2TickHook.mov

The plan getting fairly routine as of late. The ER2 is not wanting to break to new highs or lows and we just range. We hit the VAH on the monthly profile yesterday and bounced right back down. Amazing sometimes how Market Profile shows you what will happen. As for the trading day…once again ER2 formed one of its extremes (the low of the day) in the first 30 minutes. It’s nearing 84% of the time that ER is hitting an extreme in the first hour of trade. The profile was a fat one again. Buyers did have strength over the sellers at 121/205 TPOs. Notice, though, that ER2 is near the top of a downtrend line on the monthly volume profile: The bottom of this wedge could easily get hit tomorrow or the next day, and it’s going to get into make it or break it time for the Russell. Values for todays trading: VAH - 798.5 POC - 797.3 VAL - 794.3 With just a 4 point value area, we could see price move from the top to the bottom or vice versa. It’s a pretty small value area. Today we had a 5 point VA, and we stayed above it all day long. Good day for the bulls. Price right now (Monday evening) is trading inside of value. IF we are to open up inside of value, I would look at shorts around VAH. This coincides with the ominous 800 level. I would also look to long the VAL around 794. Now…if we start heading down hard, I won’t take that short. I will most likely look for a retracement to the POC or VAL. With the markets looking for a higher open as of now (pre news) we are outside of value to the upside. A play that *could* work is going long off VAH. I want to see a break of 800 first, as I feel there are going to be some sellers in this 800-805 area. Only time will tell right now. Overall, the rest of this week will be interesting. Lots of data for the markets to digest and a Fed day wednesday. Those are always messy. Best of luck!

Thanks mat. I use InvestorR/T for my charting. And bummer about your internet!!

There's a NYSE TICK, Nasdaq TICK and the Russell TICK, too. Not all data vendors have the Russell TICK, but all should have NYSE and Nasdaq. I'm not sure what it is for Tradestation, but for dtn the Nasdaq is nastick.z

No problem at all Robert. Hopefully I'll be able to make a bunch more with my trades soon... nick...the symbol I use with dtniq is JTRT.Z.

Here is a video showing how we broke afternoon support and I shorted the breakdown, and then covered at breakeven because I thought we were reversing in no mans land. What I wasn't watching was the Russell TICK. It had made fresh lows when I shorted. That's a perfect entry! Hopefully someone can learn from my mistakes. I did end up getting in and taking 2 points, though. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=586&stc=1&d=1170099558 ER2TickLows.mov

Let’s look at what happened on Friday. We sold off right through VAL on ER2 and hit that pivotal support level around 781. That was our low for the day. We continued to auction higher and higher throughout the remainder of the day, but failed to do a “value cruise†to the VAH of Thursday. Is that a lack of buying momentum? Seems it to me. The ER usually cruises through value areas without much problem. So…that was a little red flag to me. We made a lower value placement on Friday, as well, and sellers did outnumber buyers on the TPO count by 238/183. One interesting thing to note is that our TPO counts on 1/19 and 1/23 when we were at these levels before signaled buyers were controlling the markets down there. The TPO counts were 160/156 (pretty much even) and then 119/221 before we auctioned higher the subsequent days to get to the 800 level. As you can see, we’re in a serious range. Any break below 770 or above 810 is gonna be a major signal. Also…our monthly volume profile is also showing these levels as the monthly VAH and VAL. While we’re up at 790ish right now, I’d be watching out coming into 794 (monthly POC and high volume node) and the 797-800 area. This range we have been trading in is getting tighter and tighter. I feel like soon we are going to see a breakout. So, my trading levels for tomorrow are as follows: Looking for shorting opportunities above 800. Watch for chop around 794. Don’t get caught up in potential whipsaw action at this high volume node. If we open above 790, watch for a long opportunity there (VAH from Friday) but be very cautious coming into that 794 area. Might be good to take a point or 2 and get out unless there is clear direction through that area. If we open inside of value, looking to short around 790 area. Our value area consists of VAH at 789, POC at 786.2 and VAL at 784.00. 6 points of value is something the ER could clear no problem on a “value cruiseâ€Â. IF we happen to open up outside of VAH and come back into value, this is a good play to watch. We could drop at least to 786, offering a nice profit of around 3.5 points.

Thanks for your input. There are quite a few of us here who use Market Profile successfully day after day. When you say "other than for determining support/resistance levels"...that's exactly what Market Profile is for.

Does anyone know where to get program trading values for the ER2 premium? Thanks!

things seem all good here

wsam, I absolutely agree. Thanks to my wonderful girl I shut my door at 4:15 and am not allowed to look at charts until 8am the next morning On the weekends I just poke around this forum, but that's all for trading stuff now. My mornings are spent doing my market research, not my mornings, nights, and weekends (and dreams)... It's nice to have "office hours" and dedicate a work schedule to my "job". No need to get over-consumed by it all.

Sounds like I know what you've got brewing..... If I knew easy language I'd be all about helping.

Thanks, I would love to know what you mean by Market Profile being "dicey"? I haven't found that to be the case at all. Chris

Thanks brown, I appreciate the feedback