MidKnight

I'm just sitting here frustrated that I got pipped on that GU trade and then suckered into a long on GJ. Pretty consistent with the majority of my breakout attempts in the past. I thought I'd run some numbers against my 13 trades since starting this exploration last week. 46% winners average R of winners 0.81 average R of losers 0.55 PF of 1.26 A pretty fine line with a disappointing and frustrating introduction to the style. I know that 13 trades isn't statistically significant, but its starting ballpark figures. I'll be updating these on a weekly basis as a crude but objective measure of performance and hopefully improvement over the course of this exploration. With kind regards, MK

Well that was fast. Stopped out for 27 pip loss.

Once the cable trade was stopped out, I could see the cable crosses setting up a first LH/HL for reversal. Set the orders on GJ.

Stopped out at even with a MFE of about 30. I'm just not able to get any follow through. Only 1 out of 12 trades has actually followed through so far.

Stop moved to BE..........................

I've taken a (sim) short position on what is starting to look like a very minor probe. With kind regards, MK

Serious? LOL Never heard of it myself, but it has a catchy name - and that counts for something! With kind regards, MK

Good call man. With my nightvision hindsight goggles on Yeah, I can see a first HL if one was desperate for a reason to get on board to the long side. But like you, it's not obvious to me and I probably wouldn't have been interested in trading it. I personally have difficulty seeing anything clear on GJ or EJ from the 240m chart at the moment. It's too narrow a range for too long, and it's getting narrower. These things can explode :helloooo: The AJ looks more clear to me on the 240m chart. All my best, MK

After the market really struggling to go lower, I moved the stop to +9 and went to bed. I see it went lower to within 10pips of main target and then hit my trailing stop. Average gain was 12pips yielding 0.43R. Of the 11 trades tried so far, I have only had 1 that just exceeded 2R. Most of my winners are less than 1R. Feels not very ideal. Had I been awake, I don't think the result would have changed much. I can't really fault how I managed the trade idea. I did feel that price would come back up to test the breakdown point (where I entered), but I thought that would be after it went to my main target. So far, my feel is to focus more on the first LH or HL as initial positions and use the subsequent breaks with the momentum as adding locations, maybe even based on the bigger TF. I would like to be able to ride the 240m moves but use the 15m to manage (add/decrease) the position. I've been studying this and it looks great with my hindsight goggles on, but one needs to be patient and accept that they can get lots of base hits for a week or two until the main move actually happens. Might be hard to deal with on a psychological basis. Thanks Thales. The idea didn't work out so hot though. I'll be back tonight though

Just on the concept of the three indians thing (or maybe also known as 3 thrusts), I trade that type of thing a fair a bit on indexes, but I also require a sizeable move as the criteria for it. I find that is more reliable if it is coming after strong momentum, rather than before any momentum has really manifested. A lot of fast moves start out as creepers. With kind regards, MK

Chart says it all...............................

Hi guys & dolls, Just a theory I'm entertaining for the next little while, USD/CAD could be going lower and continue to at least the next zone I have marked on this 240m chart. Here is the idea I'll be trading if it happens.

Stopped out for a 20pip loss.

USD/CAD could be good....Bigger picture (240m), I see it pulling back and just touching the edge of the decent consolidation it smashed through yesterday. Worth a shot I think. With kind regards, MK

Nice one forrest. For some reason the pound moved good. Euro barely budged. So much for slow moving :P

Took a loser of 14 pips from this short. All my best, MK

Hi guys, I'm not going to trade this one, but I see it is an either/or situation now that it has left that chopzone. The long version is like my prior gbp/jpy trade but in reverse. The short version is....well....continuation after breaking lower. With kind regards, MK

EUR/USD may have broken down out of that chopzone made in the R from my prior post.

Hey, I just saw Thales eur/usd chart. It seems pretty similar to my last usd/cad post. So by Thales preference, it seems that my entry area (blue line) would be premature....

Really really solid drop on usd/cad yesterday. A part of me would like to look for a long on a 15m break of 1.0575 area because it is at support after a large large drop and could at least bounce back to test the recent congestion in the 1.0600/50 area, but the other part of me sees this is part of a bigger down move in which I should ultimately be going short. I'm in conflict, and this is where trading simple price action and looking at multiple time frames puts me into conflict.

Just to add to the forex and tick data thing.....a tick in forex is only a bid change and to my knowledge it is not an actual transaction. This is how it used to be 5 years ago. Maybe it has changed somewhat if your feed is from an ecn, I don't know about that though. I'd steer clear of tick charts on FX personally. Currently eur/usd and eur/jpy are at significant resistance. Can it break? They both traveled up into the R area like a bat out of hell. I'm keeping my eyes open for 'obvious' shorts, but also want to keep my mind open to the idea that it may break higher.

Ok ok, I'll stop with the endless stream of queries. I don't know why, but for some reason I feel like an idiot for taking the trade and was just trying to make sure it didn't happen again - or at least not very often. Thanks for the replies.

Thanks for the reply. I'm not really looking for a rule as about 1 year ago I stopped searching for the inflexibility of absolute rules in the markets. But I thought you had some clearly defined and objective rules. This was an assumption on my part because I couldn't see how else you could have taught your daughter....my apologies for the incorrect assumption. With kind regards, MK

Hi Thales, So why is the short gbp/jpy not digging into resistance? At the time of entry to me, it looked like obvious R, but for some reason I don't know of, you don't seem to think so.... With kind regards, MK

Hi Gabe, That has been a problem for me every time I have added more 'things' to watch. I end up getting shaken out of so many good trade ideas all because I'm trying to reduce my uncertainty. At one stage in my life, I was a commercial pilot and think this ingrained my need to try and get certainty....It's been large, ongoing issue with my trading that is slowly being chipped away at. I'm not saying trying to get better information isn't a good idea at all, but maybe track it and see if the added information being used is helpful overall vs unhelpful. Have a great weekend. With kind regards, MK