MidKnight

Nice work all round for the year bathrobe. I was puzzled why you would want to watch the nikkei during USA hours. The CME contract is pretty pathetic IMHO and is really nothing more than an after hours market for the main Nikkei out of Osaka. Or, maybe you are meaning to extend your trading hours beyond just the USA session. I've traded the nikkei daily for a couple of years..it's a pretty low volatility market, but has great volumes if you use the Osaka contracts. With kind regards, MK

Hi Cory, Use the demo account as if it is a real account. None of this because it was in demo I traded it like X but in reality I would have done Y. Use it like its real, then there is no question at all that you are not fooling yourself with hindsight postmortems saying a different outcome would have happened if it was real. I'm not trying to be mean here, but I've done exactly what you are doing here and it wasn't helpful to my development.... With kind regards, MK

I was using esignal for various asian futures and found it no issue for me. The speed was fine. How fast do you need it?

Hi Gabe, that is about right, but as you trade size with IB the comms cost is quite small as a ratio of the size. The other key difference I have noticed with IB spreads vs Oanda (probably true for any bucket shop) is around reports the spread only widens for a fraction of a second rather than the 1 minute sort of area with Oanda. I compared this directly at the last NFP report. With kind regards, MK

Hi Thales, I agree fixed scales of a constant range are ideal for developing an eye/feel rather than being a program to trade. I've used a few charting packages over the years and they all seem to allow constant scaling. Ensign, Neoticker, Sierra, to name a few. I tried Sierra some years ago as well and didn't like it much then, but more recently I tried it again and I'm pretty pleased with it. It's fast, small memory footprint and trading from the chart is nice. For automated studies, I think neoticker is the best though. Lawrence Chan (a long time systems trader) has put huge effort into making neoticker stand out in the programming side of trading. With kind regards, MK PS: I hope you are feeling better now and business as usual next week!

The markets are imperfect. I am imperfect. Can I assume I am so good that a single entry and exit are perfect enough? Maybe. Can I accept the volatility of my equity curve and the risk of ruin with a single entry/exit approach? If I accept I am imperfect, maybe I can smooth out the volatility in my equity curve, reduce the risk of ruin and manage risk more effectively (risk from an overall style point of view) by allowing myself both multiple entries and exits. I accept my imperfection and do not need to squeeze out every point on a trade. My goal is to make money trading, not perfectly enter at the low and perfectly exit at the high. I accept the market is imperfect, after all, it is made up of many imperfect people. The market is grey, not black and white. That is my point of view, I'm not trying to change anyone who is into all in/out type of trading. With kind regards, MK

Hi John, It's going to be as this is pretty much one of the most volatile regular reports released in currency land aside from maybe interest rates. The number was a big surprise too, so that helps exaggerate things With kind regards, MK

Hi Cory, I do approx 2 times the spread from the price I want to execute in. I don't bother with the 1 tick part - just level +2 times spread. With kind regards, MK

Get some solid rest Thales. Wishing you a speedy recovery - MK

Whoa, hold on there pardner. The only thing I have done differently (except for have so many losers) was apply it to many markets. Which, btw, was not even stressed as such a big deal until we examined my string of losses last week. Lets be fair about that, OK.

Good Morning Thales, I don't have charts open at the moment and I'm getting ready to head out for my regular Wednesday morning volunteer work so I am short on time. I'm not sure how my reply comes across an bitter and I'm sorry if you think I am being unfair towards you. I don't see it in my replies, but the written word can be interpreted in many ways.... I was just answering your question here. Yes, I probably missed your point there, and you also missed mine. The same range you highlighted on the EU chart is also evident on the GU chart. I was asking why you didn't mark the same range as an opportunity on the GU chart. I know your called stop entries were different than this range and I'm asking why - that is all. With kind regards, MK

It would have taken me considerably longer to see it as a range than you have marked above - probably not until 2 bars after the box low. I'm not suggesting that what you marked is when you noticed it, just commenting on when I may have started to consider it was in a tight range. Yes, I think so. I am interested in knowing why you did not see the same 'opportunity' on GU? It would have yielded a stop out to the upside and probably a small stop out from the downside. I only ask because I know GU is one of your pairs that you are watching and you no doubt have watched it form that pattern tonight except you don't seem interested in the same 'opportunity'. With kind regards, MK

Hi Gabe, I'm still around, but I just don't have a need in posting my short comings day after day. I'm sorry to disappoint the posters at TL that only like to comment when a person is in pain. Congratulations on a solid days trade. With kind regards, MK

I'd be curious to know how you were adjusting your stop loss after each add. Actually, now that I re-read your post about entering at 1.65429, it doesn't mention where your stop loss was. Could you expand on how you initially placed your stop when the market is running away from you and how you altered that stop on each successive add? Thanks. With kind regards, MK

Or the people on the minus side are not posting....

Hi, I don't recall this exactly, but whatever....I think I've always posted any results from this exploration in average pips per trade (accounting for partial exits over the entire position). I may have commented on the Thales Family Trading Co % gains, but not dollars. Anyways, it is with regret that I posted my struggles here and should have known better than to do so in public on the Internet. The exploration has been somewhat beneficial though, so maybe a case of no pain, no gain. With kind regards, MK

Hi Thales, Thanks for taking the time to look over those trades, have a think about them, and annotate your thoughts on a chart. I understand very well that under the hood, so to speak, a discretionary method is a complex if/then decision tree of which the trader is usually not aware of. So I can see why some of your comments are in conflict. I hope you can see though that simply applying the breakout of a trend, or the 1-2-3 reversal type on their own is of very little merit. I think there was only 1 of those 7 trades that you agreed with, yet all those trades were breakout plays. You are filtering them, but just not aware of it. As I've said several times in this thread, the breakouts of pivots (with the trend or the 1-2-3s) is just an execution trigger. What makes it work for you is that you are right about the markets near term movement - it isn't that you take every pivot break. And that is fine - it is a discretionary method and I'm a big fan of discretion because once experience accumulates (an eye or feel is developed) it ends up feeding on itself and just gets better and better over time. With regards to the GJ longs you suggested - yeah sure, I could drop down to a 1min chart and look at the PA within that. Dropping down in time frame looking for a PA reason to put on a trade can always be done. Your post suggesting those longs was on the 15m though, so that is what I based my response on. I know from my own experiences that when I start dropping down in time frame, then I'm looking for a reason, any reason to put a trade on, no matter how small. I already have a strong feel for where the market may go, so I'm just looking for any excuse to get in. That to me is how your GJ longs look. You had a strong notion that prices may go higher and you were looking for the slightest reason to get in. Looking back through this thread you can find many trades where you do that with less obvious trades that are a result of you dropping down in time frame either mentally or maybe you actually have smaller time frame charts open. It's a hallmark of a highly competent trader IMHO. The reason these 7 trades didn't work out has everything to do with applying the right entry with the wrong context. Thanks again for looking over these. With kind regards, MK PS: Yes my data comes from IBs IDEALPRO network - it's an ECN thingie. Some of market makers are IB FX but it is not limited to that - UBS, Citigroup. Credit Suisse are a few of the other liquidity providers. I realize IB data can easily varry from one feed to another. Only 1 out of 7 wasn't bad I thought

Hi Cory, Thanks for taking the time to comment. I must admit to being a little offended in reading it though (but I know that wasn't your intent). You are suggesting that I haven't or do not study the historical charts - of course I have been. The last 4 weeks exploring this have been no different than all my prior weeks since trading. Exploring various ideas (for the last 4 weeks, strictly this Thales stuff) through historical study of some sort and also exposing myself to real-time markets. I'd easily do a 10 hour day during the market week and a good 4-6 hours each day over the weekend. Yeah sure, I can see lots of winning opportunities as well when I look at historical charts. If that is the case and then the real-time study is showing a massive mismatch that is a strong sign of severe hindsight bias. So far, this has been my experience, and I'm sharing the experience for everyone to see. I was hesitant to post those 7 trades because I know that with hindsight, people will be posting comments like, "c'mon man, that was obviously long, why would you want to go short there?". The comments will likely communicate all the reasons why the trade should not be taken and probably none of the reasons why the trade should have been taken, thus implying the absolute invalidity of the trade idea. I'm not saying you are doing this in your comments, I'm just typing this thought up as an attachment to my reply to you. With kind regards, MK

Hiya Thales, As I saw it at that time, this was a H-L-LH into the the late resistance from Friday. Based on your questions, I have one for you of which I will ask after answering yours. 1) No, I don't see why you were so aggressive on the first long. Even after you posted it I remember saying to myself that I thought that was an aggressive entry and I didn't really see it. At the time of your first entry, yes, it could have been a false break below Friday's low but I still saw it as an aggressive stance (which is fine of course!). The second one I could see as taking, maybe....but it isn't what I would have called an obvious trade, especially with the R from late Friday just overhead. If I only noticed the second one and wasn't in from somewhere near the assumed false break after the open, then I would have felt too late getting on the long side as this would have been in the middle of a fairly tight range (tight for GJ) and would have preferred to play the edges of that range. The first obvious trade I saw based on the type of trades posted in this thread came at the short that I took. 2) I can't answer this question properly because my hit rate with this style is so terribly low that most of my entries are losers. Because of that, no, I wouldn't have reversed. Because of the lack of skill, it permeates into the rest of the trade management encompassing everything from moving stops, pulling the rip cord, exiting close enough to PT etc. I'm sure you can see why - with such a low percent of winning trades (winning decisions), each decision made has a better chance of being the opposite to what is done. Now my question to you is why were you not concerned about the R overhead - if you were concerned, then you would have been looking for any reason to get short. But you don't seem to be and are even saying it isn't obvious. I've seen you post countless trade ideas with less of a reason to enter (like your two longs right here). Obviously as it turned out, your ideas were right and mine was wrong, but I just can't see why.

Sure, at your leisure. With kind regards, MK

Hi John, You won't find an ideal time frame unfortunately. As volatility changes, so does the ideal time frame. Increasing volatility has the effect of speeding up time and a volatility reduction has the opposite effect. The joy of trading, nothing is static. With kind regards, MK

Hi Thales, I can dig them up if you think its beneficial. Will take a little time, but I'll do that after lunch.

Hi Thales, You are telling me that you do not see the entry on my post here? http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-170.html#post81833 You are filtering out these trades in some way that you must be unaware of. These entries that we talk about, the H-L-LH type thing is nothing more than entry trigger with perhaps a minor execution edge. It is not a complete setup IMHO. Taking every one of these trades will put one in the net loser category unless there is something else that completes this entry trigger as a setup. For you Thales, that comes from a rich integration of context. And like so many great traders it is highly subjective and the trader is unaware of all the inputs into what a setup really means to them. Such is the sign of the greats, and such is the sign of something difficult to replicate by others - especially without face to face hands on experience. I'm still around here, but I don't see the point in posting my charts with this entry trigger anymore as it has become beyond an embarrassment. Thanks for the kind wishes, I wish you and your family the same. And because I'm a bit of a hippie at heart, I'll throw in some flower-power, peace, love, and happiness too With kind regards, MK

Stopped out for the full stop of -16.5 pips. 7 losses in a row, this is the most I've had in years with every trade for the week being a loss. On all of them, I've bought/sold the high/low of a false break.

Hello all, I'm going to put more words into my trade posts because I feel that simply marking the blue, red, green lines is insufficient to explain why to take the trade. The actual entry on this technique is trivial, but the reasons why to take that entry are not. I'm taking this short because I see that we have tested the R zone twice more last night and can see how price could go down to at least the 1.4920 area.