wjrusnak

I wanted to take the time here to analyze what I found to be a lesson in flexibility. DBPheonix has written in a number of threads about this very subject and I didn't realize this was a perfect example until I didn't take a short at certain levels today. In the above chart, I did not add the 8435 level until this evening. This level would most likely have gave me a better indication to take a short had I been aware of its presence. Anyway, I took the break of 8495. In trade #1, I would have closed the trade for ~+15 profit had I been aware of 8470, as indicated above (instead of my target of 60). Trade #2 and #3 were according to plan and #3 was closed simply due to the fact that it just wouldn't push any lower before 4:15pm. Also, I think for both situations (short and long), I exemplified the importance of "looking left" as I read in one of the Wyckoff threads earlier. Had I done this in both situations, I probably would have had a more successful day. I'm finding some difficulties in marking levels. I don't want my charts to look like a striped shirt, but today that almost would have helped. Above you can see that I was dead on about 8420 and had I been there in the morning I would have had a good shot for a long. As for those upper levels though, I had a bit of trouble identifying them and it definitely threw off my judgment. Flexibility (do I need to stretch...yoga)? [cheezy...]

Better Day. At least made up for my losses and came out with a bit of profit for the day. Trades were pretty straight forward and as described below, one was a regrettable trade (logging it helps to prevent future occurrences).

And I'll add these last two trades here... a break-even and another stop. Sticking to the plan was the key today, with exception of the misses above. Possibly today's issue was sticking with the trend. The trades I took were definitely counter-trend in a few cases. The ones I missed were all with the trend. Something for me to ponder...

I followed my rules today on all entries, so I wasn't entirely disappointed in this day, but it ended up at -11 YM points (2 stop-outs and 1 break-even). What I was disappointed in were the red circles that I have painted below. These trades are ones that met my qualifications (especially since they were with the overall trend), but I failed to take them. The middle circle was especially disappointing since I had no reason not to take that trade since I took the short (that was stopped to the tick) a few minutes before it. These three opportunities were missed due to fear and hesitation. As mentioned in the CouldWouldaShoulda thread yesterday, I would be the first to admit when I was psychologically unable to make trades. Here were three examples in one day.

I assure you that the distractions are simply a byproduct of this not being "full time" for myself yet and because of the summer season. Remember I am a full time student applying to medical school at the moment. Though, I am aware that I share the same fear of even taking a trade (due to the recent over trading), but that is very expected and I'll work through it. So, I am not lying to myself or anyone. Believe me, I'll be the first to admit when I psychologically fail to make a trade. Noted and I believe you're probably right. We do have our fair share of technical market speak in the room, but it comes with much "chit chat". You know what I mean...

I am probably going to be crowned king of this thread. I waited like a hawk, following the YM to the high of the day. I already had my plan set "if it hits the high of day, and retests... I'm making it a go". It hit the high of the day... it retested... I was on my laptop with the chat room open... I checked the chart... and here is my post! (Generally I have my laptop hooked up to another monitor to give me dual screens... not today ) Realistically I would have caught 30 of those YM points according to my exit strategy. Combining my two CWS trades for the past two days: ~$250. Solution (as DB requested): Eliminate my distractions or at least don't completely cover my entire chart with another screen... so obvious right?

No. I'm done with eating.

Here is my CWS for the day. I didn't get to my computer screen until about 12:15 p.m. EST (after Organic Chem Lab). I noticed this set up on the YM happening around the last swing low on the 60 min chart, so I continued to focus on the setup and drew up my supply lines from earlier in the morning (on a 1m chart). I saw the weak break below the low of the session and was anticipating a set up at 8627. Even though this trade was counter-trend, it was appealing because of that weakness. My entry would have been 8629-8631 with a stop of just below the low of the day at 8624-8625. The entry would have had to be quick (as seen in the 3 tick chart). I realize that the market rallied later in the day, but a true realistic exit for myself would have been after the second failure around ~8660 at about 1:30 p.m. EST. Even then, this would have been a terribly long trade. So why didn't I take this? Prior to the test of the supply line around 12:30 p.m. EST I decided to get some lunch. I came back about 6 minutes later and price was already jetting toward the supply line. Now it becomes a CWS. -- Bill

Only one trade today, which ended up at break even (+1YM point). As you see in the 60 min chart the YM was following a nice down channel in which it was right at the top. In addition to that, it was the top of an up channel (on 1min chart) as well as sitting at 8694, which I had marked as a point of R. After price failed at 8692 on my 3 tick chart, I entered 8690.00 and my stop was initially at 86.94. I moved the stop to b/e after price moved in my favor for about 7-8 ticks. Soon after my stop was hit and then the enormous afternoon rally began, which ran through the R (8750) I had marked on my chart. The final line, drawn at 8820, was put there after the fact, so it wasn't a prior level of R that I was looking at. Fortunately, I sat tight and watched the rally, not attempting my usual "short and stop-out" the entire way up.

Generally I watch the setup on 1m and get ready to enter by watching a 1 tick. I'll consider posting "zoomed" areas of my entries. You're right. This was a macroscaled generalization of the day. I failed to consider the fact that the down trend was fairly weak. In that light, I was trading counter-trend and trying to justify the trades. In reality, I missed the reversal to the up side and was trying to catch the next reversal to the downside. In this case, only for the dotted points of R. It shows up more clearly on my screen, but yes they are troublesome. I should probably just switch to the white background/black price theme for ease of viewing. Anyway, thanks for the input. This is what I need. -- Bill

I decided to get this thing going. If you aren't familiar with myself or my strategy, I'll give a brief summary. I've been trading for a little over a year now and have been sitting at break-even status. With stocks and futures, I've gained a nice amount of money, gave it back, gained it back, and gave it back... you get the idea. I've been through many of the indicator strategies and read more trading material than any of my assigned reading for school this year. In retrospect, I am blessed to be at break-even, as I still remain learner of this market. Honestly though, no matter what strategy you choose, most of the trading comes down to your psychology anyway. Even though I really only started trading futures according to price action and Wyckoff principles beginning this year, my training started last summer when I was mindlessly picking stocks that "seemed like good companies". In that light, I've progressed immensely. Believe me. Why the log then? This is part of the psychology part. Being able to day-trade has led me down another treacherous path. I find myself over-thinking, becoming fearful of losses, and most deadly, over-reacting. All of this leads to over-trading, more stop outs that one could imagine, and cutting profits so short that I am sometimes barely a scalper. Once you lose faith in your entry, you'll exit at any profitable chance, even if that is $10, only to find that had you trusted your stop, you'd have made your week in profits. Anyway, I'm sure you'll get a feeling of what I'm going through as you observe my charts. I'm going to post individual charts with as much detail as possible in order for the reader to understand why I placed a trade. That is the ultimate goal here: to define the "why" of the trade and to be accountable for it. And so we begin... (RED ARROW = SELL; WHITE ARROW = BUY) Even though this trade went sour, I am fully satisfied with my judgment here. 1480 was an interesting level in the past few days, so I expected a reaction there. Both of these trades are decent after reviewing. 8780 was also an area of interest (basing this off larger TF charts), so I again expected some reaction here. When there was hesitation at previous intraday resistance, I decided to take the short. That second trade would have been extremely hard to catch, so I really just missed it and that's all I can so about it. Any insight is greatly appreciated. Especially from those who are on this price action/Wyckoff path with myself. -- Bill

A case for DOW 9000. This analysis is very narrow, as I'm focusing only on the DOW, but similar setups are emerging in the other indexes as well. A couple things that I notice: On June 1st, the DOW officially broke the bear channel set in place for the past couple of months, which one can deduce as a sign of strength and with that I placed a new demand line. In addition to that, it broke the midpoint of the congestion of the October lows. The next swing is set at 9000. The peculiar thing about this last push up is the seemingly weak break of the springboard and the decreasing volume of this entire move. Even so, it held the top of the springboard, which again is a sign of strength. With the weak volume (lacking buyers and sellers) it may be difficult to get past 9000. The latest play would have been a long at 8600 (in some stock or the future) and looking to take some off at 9000. This is what lead me to the observation of that price point. In any case, I feel that we should see some excitement near that range, especially if it turns out to be a "top". And of course if that is the situation...we may expect an overshot of buying panic, which will "screw up" these lovely levels entirely. Input and discussion is welcomed. -- Bill

You need at least $5000 in the account for a non-IRA account. As far as what you need per contract for a particular instrument, below is a link to the initial margin requirement for each. One example is for the ES: you would need 25% of $4500, so $1125 per contract. This is much higher than say Ampfutures, who requires that you put up $400 per contract. http://www.tradestation.com/LW_Reports/report.pdf

I found that mini crude (QM) and the euro future (6E) can be hit or miss as far as liquidity, but those are the two that I watch after hours.

Interesting spot for the DOW wouldn't you say?

Needed a break from studying, so I decided to draw on charts...

Nice catch. That supply line is illustrating exactly what I was talking about. I strayed away from posting the NQ since it was so bullish as you've shown here (and you seem to have demonstrated it well). Also if you check out XLF (the financial ETF), it should hit its next swing high in about 2 more points at ~13. All of this in mind, it just seems like a lot of things are setting up as potential Resistance to this rally. I've been bearish since 1300, so I feel that I have to get it right soon lol. And if you can notice from my trading, I am very good at jumping the gun only moments before the move... and then missing it

Friday night and here I am looking at Daily charts. Just thought I would share. I never really examine the YM or ES charts like I do with the NQ, but this is what I came up with. The YM successfully broke through 7500 and even found support there. Now it is slowing its rally in the congestion from the earlier part of the year. Considering that, 9000 doesn't look impossible, but these levels will probably provide some sort of trouble. The same break through exists for the ES and it also found support. Now, just as the YM, its right back into the congestion area, but more interesting is the R just recently hit at the 870 area. This seems crucial for the ES. Breaking this could mean back up to maybe 950 or so. Overall, this has been one of the most steady and long-lived rallies we've seen since the drop. Anyone else have an opinion? I know TOG feels that we will be moving up yet and by the looks of these charts, it definitely looks possible if we get through this congestion. Anyway, see you guys Monday.

Hey Theodocious. I have been using Tradestation for a while and most recently I started using NinjaTrader with the Zen-fire feed and AMPFutures as my broker. Here's what I know: Tradestation: Comm: 4.70 round-turn for the eminis (S&P and NQ); not sure if you're trading larger things also Platform: Free if you make 10 trades a month (shouldn't be too hard ) Data: You have to pay like $1 ea. for NYSE, NASDAQ, etc. stocks, but this is nothing. The only fees I didn't like were the fees on futures data: $10 or $15 for the CME data and like $10 more for CBOT (all emini); Standard full CME data is more (maybe like $50 a month) All said and done, I didn't mind Tradestation as a broker. The platform isn't bad either once you get used to it. BOTTOM LINE: FREE (with 10 trades a month); Data $15-65/month (depending on your needs); 4.70 round-turn Ninja with AMP: Comm: 4.80 round-turn for eminis Data: Free Platform: Free unless you want to upgrade to the "real" version which includes automation, the ninja script stuff, and OCO orders, etc. This will cost you $60 a month or I think a larger one-time fee. Overall I do like the platform, but its semi-inconvenient not to be able to automate stops. If you have the cash I'd definitely recommend the paid version. Only problem I'm having is that zenfire will not give you the TICKQ for nasdaq or any other exchange since its not a futures data. Otherwise I do love ninja for order entry. And I still have Tradestation so I'm also getting the TICKQ on my other screen. BOTTOM LINE: FREE (unless you upgrade to $60/mo. version); 4.80 round-turn Hope that helps a little. -- Bill EDIT: Both brokers have historic and tick data. Tradestation does not have anything smaller than 1 minute for time though (No seconds charts if you would need that, but the 3-tick chart is working just fine for that)

Gotta post my levels! Anyway, I'm looking at ~ 1300, 1320, 1340, 1360; apparently we as a market love 20 point ranges lately. Another break high, but again... only ~20 points higher than the last? Even though weak, I still have to agree with ToG that we are continuing bull steam ahead. I stated in chat around cash close, when we were at 60, that we would open under 30 tomorrow morning. Looking at overnight so far, I'm only 10 points away from being right and receiving $20 from ToG (he doesn't know we have that bet -- but I owe nothing if I'm wrong ) EDIT: Something else to keep in mind: "Early morning earnings reports from Citigroup and General Electric, and an update on GM's restructuring, are the key hurdles for stocks Friday." -- CNBC

Alright, Firewalker. This is what I'm looking at on the slightly longer term NQ. Much of me wants to become bearish, but I have a tendency to jump the gun on my calls. Knowing that, I'll continue to wait. If anything we can say that we are losing bull steam here. The last high of 1340 was only 10 points higher than the previous high at 1330. I still have ~1300 as the middle of my second box, but like you said, it is more like 1295. So far this has been a boring week: 1344 to 1294; 50 points to work with throughout the entire session... The news and the rest of the bulls are calling this the expected pullback. Guess we'll have to wait and see. EDIT: It seems like we are also breaking that top supply line here in the overnight session. Time to test 40 again it looks like.

Speaking in terms of Wyckoff then, I would not touch this thing long yet. Path of least resistance lies with the trend it is most certainly a down trend. One method of trying to catch a reversal would most likely have to be done in a smaller time frame, where you can view the intraday support and test of support. Stops would no doubt be tighter and a trader would be looking for R at the trend line or at ~20. If one wanted more proof, he could wait for the break of the trend line and attempt the breakout, or maybe even wait for a pull back after the break out. On the contrary, the trader could simply short this depending on the strength of R at 20 or the trend line. It just doesn't seem like there would be as much to profit from a short though, unless you increased your position, and that would seem like suicide against a 3x leveraged ETF. In essence, for my style and comfort zone, I would be looking to wait...

I never suggested a long term buy, as I generally close my stock positions days or a few weeks after I open them. And I am well aware that this thing can go to zero, which is why I said it could be setting up for a nice trade. They key word being trade. I appreciate your opinion though. It is amazing that these short ETFs have made such a hype in the past few months. And you're right, shorting shorts just sounds insane... -- Bill

FAZ anyone? I'm not suggesting a buy here, I just would like to discuss some of the risk/reward. I hope I'm not alone in thinking that the financial sector is not going straight up from now on and will dip back down to test lows. This as well as other ETFs seems disproportional to what has happened with the actual index. Even if the S&P never tests its lows again, I would assume there must exist a down side potential, thus boosting this ETF once again. Anyway, from >100 to 10 in less than a month. Looks like it could be a good setup soon. R/R: If the markets test bottoms again, you could easily make a factor of 10 on your money (1:10). Just seems like a great choice for an ETF. Let me know what you guys think. -- Bill

In emini futures, you are trading the cash-value of the underlying index. In the case of the Emini S&P500 that would be say $42,800 ($50 * 856 points). Now for every seller this is a buyer (more specifically, for every long there is a short) and since there is no underlying commodity for emini index futures, I would assume that every short would cover and every long would sell (I mean why wouldn't you?). If you didn't I'm sure your broker would probably sincerely urge you to, considering you'll owe them $42k, but I'm not completely positive. Honestly though, I have searched around and no one seems to have a definitive answer. Most people roll over contracts (i.e. sell your March contract and buy a June contract). And to precede a question, "you sell you long, so someone owns it at expiration right?", there is a short for that long, so the buyer is actually a short covering, thus expiring the contract. If you have a burning desire to know though, try it It's only $40k right?! I can live without knowing though. If anyone else has a better answer I'll be pleased to hear it. -- Bill **Much of this info was gathered at http://www.informedtrades.com/273480-what-happens-when-e-mini-futures-contract-expires.html