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wjrusnak
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Everything posted by wjrusnak
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I got short at 10:12am at 1775.25 then exited at 11:02am at 1767. Talk about way too long for a trade. Also it's breaking down now, but I got what 1 contract could offer. Better day than yesterday
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There wasn't much of an entry for 1763 long and definitely not an entry for 1776 short. Still waiting. I did get stopped on that beautiful double top on lower volume at 74.25 though.
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Steelers Anyway, buyers easily stair stepped up some former R levels today, which gives us a mess of levels below us now (could be good for longs). Since 1760 looks to be about the mid point of this range the last time we were here, I would look to long there, assuming buyers don't want to lose it. The only problem is that it is a mid point and it's going to be messy. On the other hand, we might not even have to wait long to take a nice clean (hopefully) short at around 1777-1780. If we do lose momentum overnight, I would think that buyers would at least hold 1753... we'll see.
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Yes, seems like I hit the nail on the head. Price did come back to the 1740 area as well, but I was stopped twice before it took off. Then because I missed the long, I was trying to short 1750 area. Took a beating today. O well. Better luck tomorrow.
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Here's my random interest in the DOW Jones. This move from march has had its share of broken demand lines, which along with the lower "overbought line" (created by weaker and weaker upthrusts), signify a weakening in momentum. I'm no expert on volume yet, but from what I see, we have increasing volume on the recent lower dip to the nearest support, with decreasing volume on the up move of the past few days. So basically... sellers met buyers at support and gave up for a while and buyers can easily sneak back up to resistance. The problem is that buyers are going to have to find a lot more interest at the last swing high or they may start to have some issues (i.e. a pullback or a range). Looking at extremely long term areas, we are right at a small point of resistance (10k), although I think 11k would be a much better point of R (I'm just one trader among many though ). In any case... setting up for a possible double top at R on decreasing volume. Looks like we'll have to see what the buyers are made of this week.
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So as Db mentioned, we're getting to some key levels in the overall market. This could give us some significant movement.... or not. Anyway, I'm looking at 1740 tomorrow for a possible break-up or a serious rejection back to the lows (this would probably be horrible for the buyers). We're just about at 1740 right now, so I would think that price could move toward 1731-32 overnight and possibly catch some momentum to get to the upside.
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Yes, I'm pretty sure you called that out fairly well in foresight
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1710 turned into 1708. I took the long there and that was really all I needed to do. My exit was a little crappy... I had my stop at 1723 after we hit 1726.75, as I thought almost 4 points would definitely be enough room to let them play. Got me out TO THE TICK at 1723 and pushed a little higher. My optimal exit would have been 1726. 3 points difference, but a great end to a great week. Done by 9:47am.
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On larger charts, we are inside the bigger range (1780 to 1650) and are right in the middle. Tomorrow that may give us some choppiness unless one side (buyers or sellers) decides to really push price. Given where we are now, I'm going to look for S around 1710-1712 (if price would happen to get there) and even though we're sitting at it as we speak, a break up above 1720. Above that the levels are fairly easily mapped: 1730, 1740, 1750. Maybe buyers will break all three, or maybe they won't break any. Let the price action decide.
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All I do is trade right now, but I'm going to medical school in the fall, so I guess I won't be "full time" then. In any case, I only trade 9:30am to 11:00am anyway, so I'm with brownsfan on that aspect. As far as trusting the advice here... who cares whose profiting? If you are learning to trade and to understand the market from the people here (whether it be candle sticks, moving averages, wyckoff, vsa, or programmed strategies) and you're making a profit... what does it matter? There is so much valuable information for any kind of trader on this forum. If you want "proof", go find a guru that charges $5000 for his course and I'm sure he'll prove to you in any way he can that he "makes a profit". This is truly a gold mine for a trader who's willing to do the work. In short, you found the best trading forum on the web. Good trading to you.
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It is the only broker I found that offers it. I would suggest it, as I've used it and traded the mini HSI in the past.
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My god... that is troubling. I am astonished at the similarity of our trading day. Even the part where I said I'd still be in had I one more contract. EDIT: Seriously... I can't get over this.
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Done by 10:00 am today, but had I another contract, I'd still be in as we speak, since price has not really broken a significant swing point. Took what I could though and that made up for my full stop at the open. 1700 was my important level for the day. I shorted it twice and then took the break up.
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I did not mean for the statement to be harsh. I just thought that after he posted the chart with the line drawn through 1680 and could clearly see that price frequently reacted to it, he would be able to see exactly why we saw it as a level. Naveen, I hope you did not take offense to the statement. If you did... I'm sorry. Keep posting and don't worry if we differ in levels, as firewalker never agrees with my levels either.
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Today buyers pushed through R, but found selling pressure at 1700. The only level that found some sort of reaction and that I didn't have labeled was 1682. Buyers got a little excited before price got to 1678-1680 and the line of S seemed to move up a bit on one of the FOMC movements. 1682 also provided R in the pre-market hours and on 11/2. For this reason I'll give it a small red line on my chart. Not sure how anyone else did on FOMC day, but I got a lot of break-even trades. Basically ended the day down -1.25 (including commission). Not a bad losing day at all. Better luck tomorrow. Anyway, I still consider 1675-1677 to be an important level of S, since it seems to be protecting us from the lower range. Sneaking in between that level and 1682 is 1680. Could end up being a messy area. Above that, its easy to see 1690 and 1700. If we do decide to enter the lower range, look to find S around 1660 or 1650. Who knows... the midpoint (our friend 1666) could even see some action. Be ready for anything. As far as trends go, we seem to have taken a break on the down move to 1650. Buyers held, but they are having trouble getting a serious run back to the highs. Already the up move has lost some momentum as sellers unloaded supply at 1700. Speaking from a price action point of view, buyers can feel good about the double bottom, but a higher high is needed above 1710 to feel secure about making another attempt at 1780.
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I'm not so sure why you don't see this already. In the middle of your chart 1680 provides R from below a couple of times and just recently (two days ago or so) it provided S. The entire 1678-1680 was a very significant area. Even today it provided S later in the day, but at 1682, indicating that buyers got a little more excited than previously (FOMC can do that). If you can't see why it's important after reviewing your own chart or my chart above, you might need to review S/R concepts.
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Tomorrow should be about the same game plan, except maybe this time we'll be looking to break up or get a nice reversal off 1690. In any case, we're ready for the above levels and the lower levels again can be found here (1632-34, 1609, 1585). Keep playing the range until someone gets serious and breaks it. Also, overnight we are pushing 1680 already. Should be an interesting open.
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Buyers held 1650 as we anticipated, but nothing impressive. We have a new range formed between 1690 and 1650 and a slightly noticeable smaller range within that (1660-1677ish). Again we should look to play 1650 or even 1660 if the entry is obvious, but in case of a break down, refer to my previous post for the lower levels (1632-34, 1609, 1585).
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Well I am sure that someone in that company had to foresee some sort of danger or risk in all of this. It could have even been precautionary. Honestly, they simply sold high, while others were still buying. Looks like any other market to me. Is it fraudulent and wrong? Probably. Does that surprise you, though? It also really seems suspicious that this bank's stock absolutely dominated from March until now. All in all, the company succeeded while the majority of the country failed. In the end it's just plain bad for everyone else.
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Rough...messy support at 1663, 1660 and 1656... three fake outs... then finally nailed the entry at 1657. That made up for all three stops and then some. I gave a lot of room after the news, but buyers didn't step in until my stop was hit at 1670... missed out on 10 more points. Really, even though it seems like I gave back 6 points, I was only giving them 3 points of breathing room, because 1676 was hit only for seconds and it was back to 1673. The only way I could have gotten more was to have a set target or to have given just one more tick of breathing room. All in all, though, a great start to my week. Done by 10:03. Needless to say... there was a double top at 1680, but I was already much too stressed from the four previous trades to pay attention. When you get to that point... you might as well quit and regain yourself for tomorrow.
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Looks like we had some pushy activity by the sellers at the opening of the futures market. They pushed down to about 1652.50 and were met by buyers. This is just about at our very important 1650 level. Tomorrow, buyers want to be able to hold this level or else we will have to start looking to the lower range, which is why I provided the first chart: Next, we can zoom in a little more to catch some details of this 1680 to 1660 range... if that is in fact what we will see:
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I'll give you some feedback: At first glance, you have a TON of levels. What is up with that? Try not to give too much energy to the first minute bar, considering that most days it will be one of the largest volume bars of the session. Seems like you're looking too hard to find some sort of climax. You'll realize soon enough that these bars are nothing but a compilation of what really happened during that minute. What if you were looking at 10-second bars or 2-tick bars? You would see a different picture. Try to focus on waves rather than bars. For instance, I saw that first bar much differently, considering I watch a 1 tick chart. Don't beat yourself up over it. In hindsight, everything looks obvious. News reports also make things a bit wild, if you hadn't noticed yet. I, for one, wouldn't have more than a 2-point stop. That is completely up to you though. Whether you want to get at least eight to ten points using a four stop or nothing less than twenty points using a three point stop, it is solely your choice. You need to figure out how often you are right compared to wrong then adjust your stops accordingly. For me, I'm right only about 35-40% of the time, so I use a two-point stop and try to get at least six or more out of my winners. In that light, one of my winners should make up for three or more of my losses. Experiment and see what is best for you. DbPhoenix has a complete thread on stops in the Wyckoff forum. In short, you want your stop to be a couple ticks or so beyond the "danger zone" of the nearest level that you are "trusting". This ends up being the bloody cycle of the over-trader. You miss, miss, miss, miss and finally you decide to quit because you're so afraid, then price finally does what you wanted it to in the first place. Just make every trade count and make sure each one is per your rules. Honestly.... s/he doesn't. It's probabilities, sir. If someone KNEW that price was going to dive to the lows or highs and break out, this game wouldn't be very hard. You set yourself up with the best chance. For instance: price was nearing a swing high around 1748.50 (which was set in place at 9:50 a.m.) and there was an increase in volume during this time. 1749-50 was also an area of resistance. None of these things tell anyone "hey... it's time to go short and you're going to make a lot of cash!", but together they are multiple REASONS to take a trade that has a high probability of success. Yes, and it will probably will be. It's not an easy task and takes a lot of practice. If you're trading reversals, you need to be aware of the trading ranges occurring within the week or month, etc. Maybe it's a good idea for you to brush up on support and resistance (see our foresight thread, since we post on it daily). All in all, you seem to have a good start, but you need to get a hang on finding important levels to trade (that is of course if you're going to trust Wyckoff's fundamental ideas). If you're constantly trying to catch reversals in the middle or at random levels, you're going to get burnt a lot.
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Oh the irony of quitting before 11:00 a.m.
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I disagree. 1713 was huge as I said last night, though it turned into 1712... then traders got excited and started selling at 1710. Progressively it was basically all the same level. You were the guy telling me yesterday to trade in zones and this is exactly that. Really, it was just simply hard to trade with all the congestion until after my quitting time. It became a little clearer that 1700 was important and we saw our good friend 1690... then 1687... then 1680... etc. Point being: there are a ton of levels in here. If you look at my chart... I did catch the extremes, especially the 3 longs at 1700ish. I also did try to anticipate a break up at the upper extreme... and by looking at the chart... you can see that 1711 was indeed the extreme. I have no issues with my trading today. EDIT: Also, I did have 1708 as you can see on my previous charts, but I thought it was also important to mention 1713. The way it turned out though, is that 1708 became more of a middle than R and I adjusted to the next level of R.
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Got negative... then back to pennies above break-even. When that happens after four trades... probably a great time to quit for the week The only disappointment I really had was the hinge that preceded a possible break of 1712 (which was what I was thinking at the time). I took it with a very tight stop and it went in my favor then back to stop me out. Guess you can't expect the market to move 20 points every day. The trend seemed like it still had strength... but o well. I also wanted the short, but at 1712. It didn't make it to that level and there wasn't really much of a sell signal for me at 1710.75 (no clear double top on a 1 tick or tick divergence). It would have been terrible to sit through anyway. I gave my long a lot breathing room as it chugged through the middle and I feel I got as much as I could. The entry was a bit late, which is uncharacteristic of me, but it was decent enough for a reasonable stop.
