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wjrusnak

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Everything posted by wjrusnak

  1. wjrusnak
    I'm sure DbPhoenix will respond, but I'll give you some feedback as well. First, I would recommend doing some "paper" trading, even if its just a month. Why lose even $500 if you don't have to? Just get familiar with your software, entries, and especially trade management before "jumping in the water". As far as finding the trading ranges, I (as well as DbPhoenix) tend to find them on larger time frames than what I am trading. In your case, larger tick charts. If your primary chart is say... 10-50ticks, then find your ranges on a 500tick (or so) chart and also keep in mind any important support or resistance on even larger charts (1000+). If you really want some precise entries after finding these ranges, you can also "zoom in" further with a 1 tick chart, in addition to your other charts.
  2. wjrusnak
    Not to blow my own horn or anything.... but: GLD found support and the previous resistance spot (which I marked on a chart last week). Why did it happen? Read what I had to say in post #4. S/R is real... trade-able... and somewhat predictable. Hope that helps. PS. Don't mind the RSI... I forgot to remove it on stockcharts.com
  3. wjrusnak
    Alright... now I'm not even sure that you know where you're going with this. S/R exists. I can prove that with a chart. People can trade it (I'm fairly certain some that people who post on P&L and Trading in Real Time prove that). There is no S/R Group (organized) on this thread. If you had found the S/R Trading in foresight thread before, you'd have noticed that some of us even had different levels. Maybe I'll simply ask... what was your point in even posting your "S/R might not be that real..." comment on this thread?
  4. wjrusnak
    Really? You're going to compare the observation of support and resistance to religion? You can take someone who never traded, tell them to draw a line across a chart, and even they could come up with "hey... it seems like the zig zags occur frequently at that line." In the early days, traders knew nothing but price. You could hear guys phoning into the floor, "give me another 1000 if it hits 82." Eventually it could hit 82, he'll buy up 1000 shares, other guys will notice it in the tick and follow suit. Then you'll get your 82 support. My point is that this all occurred before a graphical representation, thus for you to say that it is some sort of mystical belief is just ridiculous. Oh... and I don't have issues with indicators... I just don't use them. (Referring to your PA Cult remark)
  5. wjrusnak
    Ironically, if too many traders pay attention to S/R, you'll see it on a chart.
  6. wjrusnak
    I didn't realize that the OP asked for a definition and whether you believed in support and resistance. I thought he asked why support became resistance and vice versa.
  7. wjrusnak
    Take away the indicators, the moving averages, and the colored bars. In fact, take away the bars and the entire idea of a graphical representation and what are you left with? A price. A value placed upon some underlying object (or paper, or contract), determined by who will or will not pay a particular amount for it. That is it. Nothing more or less. Adding to that, sometimes humans like to keep things simple, especially with numbers (i.e. rounding to the nearest whatever, treasury notes-- $1, $5, $10, $20, $100, etc.). With that in mind, would it not be understandable that if a price provided resistance, that it would also provide support? Let me provide just one example (certainly not applicable to every situation by any means). One man eyes up stock XYZ for months and notes each day what happened with its value. He notices over a number of weeks that the price of the object ranged from 11.50 to 13.50. It never seemed to get lower than 11.50 or higher than 13.50. Out of no where, he wakes up to find that the price had broken above 13.50 to 13.72. Obviously from what he's witnessed over the past few weeks, he knows that this price is "expensive" for the stock, so he waits. Eventually price gets back to 13.51 and he decides its the right time to purchase some shares. Why? Well, the stock is obviously worth more now, otherwise it would not have broken above 13.50. Why 13.50? It was so important for weeks to the sellers, so why wouldn't it have significance now for someone buying? In addition to that, most of us here know that what I just described was a perfect breakout and retracement trade. Many people don't like taking breakouts because of the numerous amounts of fake-outs, so they wait for price to get back to the area in which is broke. If enough people do this, it will be obvious on the chart, hence your R becoming S. But, keep in mind, there are millions of people with more than one reason to buy or sell at a certain price. My only true explanation of why S becomes R is because S/R end up being "markers" for people who are buying and selling. "I'll sell everything if we get to 20 and buy more if it comes back to 10" Below is a chart of GLD with a few levels, in which almost every one acts as both S and R. Price moves in waves that are part of bigger waves. Overall the trend is up, but the waves keep flowing from range to range (keeping to numbers that make sense... numbers that are familiar from hours ago or days ago). Then the quicker buyers (and sellers) decide to exit the range (that GLD is worth more), the stronger (steeper) the trend line gets, flowing from S to R and back again. Maybe what we'll see is that price will find R really soon and retrace back to just above 112. At that point, buyers may "remember" the level and start loading up on shares from the satisfied sellers (or excited short-sellers) that have been dumping their shares on people since the high. I hope this helps to paint the picture of what is happening and how interesting it is. We're graphing human emotion playing out in a series of buy and sell orders at specific price markers that seem to repeat themselves for psychological reasons. EDIT: Also, I highly recommend reading DbPhoenix's write-up on this topic.
  8. wjrusnak
    I sort of leaned to that conclusion as well after he thanked me for my advice then proceeded to ask if I checked out Nial's videos. I gave him the benefit of the doubt, though, thinking "he must really be excited about this new guru he's come across." Silly me for believing in people Well put!
  9. wjrusnak
    Fuller has a working strategy. I especially like that he has his charts completely clean of indicators (with exception of that moving average). What I would do, if I were you, is learn as much as you can from this guy as you can, then explore other perspectives on price action (PA). Blowfish sent you a link to a thread where people are displaying all the reasons and signals for trades, which all look to be PA-based. Check it out and see what you can get from those guys. Explore the Wyckoff thread if you want a very sound basis for why PA occurs in the first place. Read up on Market Profile. Do all of this while documenting all your own trades, such as what you did above. Describe the exact the reason you took the trade or what you could have done better. Now as an example of different perspectives, I would call your "inside bar" a hinge and I would have taken the same trade. Two different ideas leading to the same trade. Refer to my chart below to see what I'm talking about. What you see here is a balance, or equilibrium, of buying and selling pressure. Eventually, though, the sellers find the initiative to move the price and they start to overwhelm the buyers with increasing orders at lower and lower prices (evident by the break in the upward trend line). Once sellers decide it's okay to sell at these lower prices (149 and below), buyers hold off until they get to the support line that you have drawn. Ultimately, with price action, what you'll want to pay attention to are support/resistance lines, trend lines, higher highs/lows, lower highs/lows, and different time frames. You will notice most of these concepts in anything you read about price action. Keep up the posting with your trade details and you should be able to funnel your way to a specific and profitable strategy that fits your personality.
  10. wjrusnak
    I think you are on the right track to developing a good trading system. Most beginners aren't even thinking about price and what it's actually doing, as compared to lines crossing each other. My advice to you is to get a feel for support and resistance, especially in real-time (if you can). You'll see that traders repeatedly react to a specific area, which generally ends up in a reversal or a break. Volume can even help you recognize how significant a particular area is (if you trade something other than forex that is). Price action boils down to waves of buying and selling. Sometimes you'll notice patterns and tendencies in the mix and hopefully you can use some of these occurrences as signals. Explore the site, especially some of the stickies and popular threads in each area of the forum. And if you didn't know already... this is going to be a lot of work. You'll spend hours trying to figure this game out Good luck.
  11. wjrusnak
    Alright guys, I just wanted to let everyone know that I'm finished posting on this thread. Hopefully the rest of you guys can keep it going and benefit from it as much as I did. Soon I start a full-time job and won't be able to trade real-time-hours (just like next year while I'm in medical school). Knowing that, it is obvious that I need to find a different focus, whether that is trading the mini Hang Seng for an hour a night, or swing trading some other instrument (I'd rather trade the wacky hang seng than swing ). Hopefully in the future, my schedule opens up so I can again day trade the NQ. Again, thank you everyone who participated in this thread during my "reign" and please keep it going.
  12. wjrusnak
    Not too much enthusiasm for these new highs. Lower volume and less movement. EDIT: Apparently CNBC noticed the same thing "Rally's Low Volume Prompts Question: Whither Buyers?"
  13. wjrusnak
    New range: 1797 to ~1814. I'll be looking long at the lower end and if we get some strength (maybe higher high overnight), 1805 could even provide some nice S. If we don't have the strength to break up, the short will be at around 1814.
  14. wjrusnak
    Almost identical to my day except for the fact that I took a short off the break of a hinge at 10:04am (resulted in only +1). Everything else resulted in a stop. Luckily I keep very tight stops due to my aggressive entries, so it didn't kill me overall. Again... better luck tomorrow EDIT: The hinge that I took short:
  15. wjrusnak
    Already we have some selling in the evening. Tomorrow I'll be looking to get long around 1794-1792 if the opportunity is given. Today also provided us with some R levels (1800, 1805, 1811-1813). Even tonight we had price break through 1800 then reject it from the lower end. I'm guessing buyers would want to try out the 1813 area again to see if the supply is serious at that level. If not, a short upon the break of price into the lower range (1770-1792) could be warranted.
  16. wjrusnak
    1792 was the perfect level, but the trade set up at 1794 and had me stopped at 1793 before hitting 1792. There was no TD at 1792 and it was a perfect V bottom. That hurt... EDIT: I figured it would only be right to post a losing day. Anyways the plan went well, I longed the 1792 area and shorted the 1800 area (both stopped out with the 1800 stop catching an entire point of slippage) then I shorted what looked to be a climax at 1805. There were TDs for both of the shorts, but buyers just wanted this day. Had I caught the long, I definitely wouldn't have been shorting. In any case, I usually start the week off bad, so better luck tomorrow.
  17. wjrusnak
    Interesting situation here. Already in the evening session, traders have broken the recent highs, leaving us with air above and our familiar levels below (1792, 1786, 1780ish, 1772). So far tonight, they have been having trouble getting above 1798, which may be broken soon, but could in fact provide us a level for the morning session (long or short depending on where we open). My plan is to focus on whatever levels are produced overnight (possibly 1798) and also 1792. If this is a true break-out, we should hold that support and possibly break even higher. As a side note... I still can't believe we're going higher, but I won't argue with the market.
  18. wjrusnak
    It was planned, initiated, and managed... Thanks for the level, Db. Buyers didn't quite make it to 1770 as I had drawn, but your 1772 was perfect. Another lower volume test at Support with a stop in placed ahead of the reversal. Too bad I can't scale yet. With time... and my account size.... (and yes I am paper trading the scaling points, hence the reason I'm not looking for a short yet).
  19. wjrusnak
    Alright, back to work. I missed today, but noticed we failed again at 1792. I have marked what seemed to be a small range (1792 to ~1772). Judging from this, buyers might have issues at 1780 (maybe even 1776 since we can't forget that this is the upper level of a previous range), but a short may not be the best considering that its basically a midpoint of the newer range. If they get to 1760-1763, I would be looking for the long, thinking that buyers should be stepping in at about that point. If not, my next big bet is on 1740.
  20. wjrusnak
    I won't be trading tomorrow, so taking a break on the levels tonight.
  21. wjrusnak
    I had issues with this at first as well. Just accept that you aren't going to catch all the moves, but make sure you trade the ones you know to be good set ups. One step at a time. Otherwise you'll take way too many trades and lose any confidence you would have in any of one of the setups.
  22. wjrusnak
    Well, I waited very patiently and got what I could out of this very slow day. 80 was my level of support lower volume on the test put my stop at 1781.75 to precede the reversal with a safe distance even though it was a V bottom on 1 tick, I was ready with the long stop to catch it This is a prime example of what I mentioned to pinetree above. Did it meet all of my criteria? No. There was no struggle (zig zag) on the 1 tick and there was not too much of a TICKQ divergence. But there were other, and what I feel just as important signals, that I mentioned above, which compelled me to take the long.
  23. wjrusnak
    Sometimes a signal might be a simple double top or double bottom on a 1m chart (or smaller). A lot of times, I allow price to zig zag on a 1 tick chart and place a stop above or below it (usually about a point and a half), preceding a reversal, then allowing it to tell me what to do. Combining all of this with the TICKQ divergences just allows for more confirmation. Anyway, just keep it simple. Stick to double tops and bottoms at first if you want.... or lower highs/higher lows. Find something that occurs often, repeats itself, and is profitable.
  24. wjrusnak
    Hm. But I have nothing else to do I'll let the volume at open allow me to decide what I should do. Who knows, maybe I'll stare at the screen for an hour.
  25. wjrusnak
    Tomorrow seems like it's going to be a bit tricky. As we speak, we're playing around 1776, which is just four points away from our new highs on the NQ. I think 1777-1780 is a very, very obvious level that should be our primary factor in our decision in a direction tomorrow (big breakout or big reversal). Anyway, we have a mess of levels under us again, which leaves us a flexible long entry (or short cover). What if we break up though? Where do we exit or attempt to short? Below is a 30Min chart with an idea of a trend drawn, but this could be skewed with the overnight session and may need to be redrawn before the open. Point being: we may have to rely on swing points and trend lines above 1780 until we get another range developed. No big deal though, right...? And last, but not least: The current channel for the actual index. According to it, we should break up (at least to 1810).
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