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MRW

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Everything posted by MRW

  1. This certainly sounds plausible. I never had any interest in buying the software, and didn't, as I thought it unecessary if one understood and then practiced Tom's original ideas. I got a feel for just how much TradeGuider changed and moved away from Tom's work when I read Tom's Undeclared Secrets book. While that uses VSA software to illustrate concepts, it does not act as though the software itself is what's necessary for understanding the market. The Master the Markets book has removed a great deal of discussion from the original work, does not use multiple timeframe illustrations, and is promoting the software throughout. TradeGuider has now gone on to use pivots, and all sorts of things Tom never spoke of in, I believe, an effort to make it more popular with a public that loves indicators, Fib numbers, pivots, etc. Now they have a trading room that is $99 a month where Gavin will spoon-feed traders set-ups, while harping on "mainipulation," as if the only way to beat this supposed manipulation is to use TradeGuider. Last year's oil market action was used over and over to try and scare people with examples and fears of manipulation. I was a futures floor trader sometime back, and from my experience, manipluation is almost never the case. All that needs to happen for a giant rise is no offers. Would yuo have sold oil when it was screaming up last Spring? Conversely, would yuo have tried to buy it as it's falling several dollars a day on the way down? A huge imbalance in bids and offers (or supply and demand if yuo will) are all that's necessary. I'll spare yuo the many, many stories from the floor of this taking place. I had several terse conversations in e-mails with Gavin over this whole "manipulation" scare tactic, the deviation from Tom's original ideas, etc, and finally told him to...well, to take me off their mailing list and not contact me again. I obtained a copy of the Boot Camp DVD quite some time back, and in viewing that again yesterday, got to wondering what had happened to Todd. Googled him in and saw the whole court case, and then found the blogspot. Thanks again everyone for yuor help and replies!
  2. Thank yuo, Sledge! I really appreciate yuor help - best wishes for the New Year!
  3. Anyone know how to reach Todd Krueger, former CEO of TradeGuider? I always enjoyed his presentations when he was doing them - can't say the same for what TradeGuider has now become. He's got a blog at http://supplydemandtradingmentors.blogspot.com but one has to be invited to join. Unfortunately, given my limited computer skills, I couldn't figure out how to contact them or him to ask for an invitation. Any information woild be appreciated - thanks!
  4. Not sure if this is the right place, but wanted to post some thoughts about combining price, volume, support, and resistance. The last few trading days have not gone as I would've liked, and a review seems to bring up some things I'm missing. I use price and volume alone - no indicators - but have had some problems with entry at times. I now see that combining price/volume action, and evaluating these at important support/resistance levels will fine-tune my enrties and exits. For example, on 1 min charts today of Citigroup, price made an early high of 21.32 on robust volume, from which it feel back sharply. I thought shuold it rise to this level again I'd be a seller, so put in a limt order on ARCA to sell at 21.29. Upon rising to 21.29 on lower volume , I was filled, but price continues up to 21.32, and then tries for a new high by a tick or two, with volume still well below the earlier high. Since my exit, shuold I be wrong, was 21.32 bid, I got out, and of course, 21.33 proved to be the high of the move. I now see that had my order been right at the old high of 21.32, this wouldn't have happened. I'll usually allow a few cents of adversity in a postion, but always have an "out point" picked in advance, and always honor this (holding onto losers is one of the few problems I don't have). One 1 min charts, 5 cents is my maximum risk, and I prefer 2-3 cents. so must be right on my entries. I may have mentioned that I'm new to trading equities from the screen, so at this point, learning cheaply by not losing much is my goal. Any ideas are welcome and appeciated!
  5. Db, your thread has been deleted from ET. Though I try not to go there, sometimes, like staring at a bad car accident, I just can't help it. The owner is getting rid of any threads he deems "not current," to the great consternation of the members of that board. Your thread deletion, in particular, has caused a fair amount of upset.
  6. MRW

    ACD Method

    Not to throw cold water on the discussion here, but I have a friend in Chicago who runs several funds. He works with Fisher on a proprietary approach to the ACD. Mark has stated to him that trying to use ACD from the book alone is futile. The book gives the broad overview, but not enough specifics to trade with. Again, this is according to what Mark has told my friend. Yes, I've seen Fisher's NYMEX presentations, and have read the book. No, I do not trade using this method, and the lack of clear-cut rules for using this is the reason why as I've had the book since shortly after it was published. If yuo'd like, yuo can go to Elitetrader.com (which I try to avoid at all costs), and do a Search under Maverick74 (my friend in Chicago), and read his comments about using ACD. Not trying to stir up any negativity, but there's more to this than is publically known. If any of yuo have had luck using ACD as outlined in the book only, then yuo've done better than almost anyone else, and no, I've not subscribed to Mark's site or service.
  7. There's nothing I can say that others haven't, DB, but will add my thanks!
  8. Thank you all for the Thank You's! I keep a journal, too, where trades taken are recorded. Recorded are: Time, position (long or short), and price entered Time, and price of exit The reason the trade was entered The reason the rade was exited "Post mortem" commentary after the fact - it's said hindsight is 20/20, which is true, but upon review, these comments are quite helpful. Each day after the close, the chart is printed, entries and exits marked, as well as all the other things seen or missed. I then go back and scroll the screen back so that only the data leading up to the trade is visible, and analyze my thought process. So, for example, if a trade is entered at 9:04:03, the chart is scrolled back so that the last bar showing is the 9:03 bar. I mentioned that I use 1 min charts, but also no indicators of any kind, only price and volume. I also review the week's trading every weekend, and perform a monthly trade review at month's end for each month. So hopefully, each trade has been reviewed at the time it was entered/exited, at the end of the day, at the ned of the week, and at the end of the month. The 5, 10, and 30 min charts are checked frequently throughout the day to get the big picture perspective, see where important support/resistane might be, prior highs/lows, etc. I also look at the ETF for the stock I trade, as well as the Dow industrials and transports, S&P cash, cumulative tick. I have a trading plan which is a continual work-in-progress that is (hopefully) a reminder of what to look for before, during, and after the trade. It sits, written out, in front of me all through the trading day, and is reviewed before and after trading for that day. I've also found that talking out loud, as a coach would, to be helpful. There have been times, for example, where I've been poised to hit the NX Sell key, and then said out loud, "Are yuo @#*!$ nuts? It's in an uptrend!" Or, if in a trade to continually say, "Is it against you? Is it against yuo? No? Then hang on!" Sounds silly, I know, but it actually helps! Discipline is even harder under fire as when in a trade, than when yuo're flat. It's so easy to forget, get impulsive ad take trades yuo shouldn't or violate your rules. Thanks again for your patience - perhaps there will be something of use for someone else here, too.
  9. I'm new here, but thought I might add some small contribution. I was a futures floor trader some time back, and, having been away from the floor for several years, got back to trading. I'm training myself to day-trade equities from the screen, and trade remote through a prop firm. I agree with the idea of trading a lot to get experience. When I was a new floor trader, they told us to just card and scratch a lot of trades to get comfortable, but also to get used to the pace and learn to cut losses fast. The progression we were drilled on was: Stop losing the wrong way Start losing the right way Breakeven Profit I started with a group last year who's skills were reading the specialist in NYSE equities. This all went pretty much out the window when the Hybrid system came in and no one specialist controlled the order flow. The mentors were back to square one themselves, as that was the only trading skill/style they knew. So...after a break last year, I started again, on my own, this year. Here are my observations based upon my experience: 1) A lot of trading is key. You need to see things over and over and over. I use 1 min charts as patterns happen with five times the frequency (or more) than on even 5 min charts. 2) Losses absolutely have to be limited! On 1 min charts, I rarely take more than a 5 cent loss. Since being new favors losses mostly, these need to be limited as much as possible, forget porfits for now, just control osses. Every one of the guys in my original group blew out his account inside 6 months. I was down 30%, and I think the only reason was that the floor taught me to cut losses like mad. Sometimes these would later turn into profitable trades, but those times would not have made up for the ones that kept heading south. 3) You have to have a plan. Where will you get out if yuo're wrong - you have to know this before yuo put the trade on and honor it. What critieria will you use to get in - entries are just as important as exits. I think to have a plan yuo have to have a view of the market. Mine is that it's fractal, so scalable across time, and that volume drives price. On the floor order flow was everything, and this was volume. There are certainly other ways to look at markets, this is just the one compatible with my experience. 4) You have to learn from yuor mistakes. I do as much work before and after the market as during the trading day, and keep journals, mark up charts, and review continually. I still repeat the same mistakes with alarming frequency, but it's improving. 5) It takes time. How many successful businesses were immediately profitable? On the floor, no sucessful trader I knew had made the transition to profitalilty in anything less than a year, and for most it took between 18 and 24 months before they could live on trading without another job. The low "start-up costs" attract a lot of people who underestimate the work and time it takes. Well, sorry for the long post, but maybe some of this will help someone who's just starting out - I'm not much farther down the road myself. Thanks for your patience!
  10. MRW

    Order Imbalances??

    Hi All, Just wondering if someone might discuss Order Imbalances and the ramifications of this? I'm making the transition to trading equities on the screen, and toward the end of the trading session, the live sqwalk box I listen to gives these "Imbalances." From the research (just started) that I've done so far, it would seem that there's some co-relation between imbalances of buy and sell orders, and possible continuations or reversals of price movements. This sound like the right beginning to understanding this? Thanks for any help!
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