torero

Thanks for the thorough answers. I'll reread it to get more questions. Another question: "I use the Market Profile to tell me if a range day or a trend day is likely by the shape and location of the bell curve and the POC. If a B shaped Profile forms near 792, then it is possible that a trend move lower could occur when the number of willing buyers drops to zero and a imbalance in the supply demand equaision occurs." So you're saying here if Wednesday is a B shape, then Thursday is a possible down trend day? So is there an inference that if the previous day has a B shape, chances of a trend break to the downside likely and if previous day with a P shape, an upward trend likely?

Once you're done you need to walk-forward it (watching it in real time) for a few months and compare to see if the results is similar to what it's been tested to historical data. Most of the time, strats fail in the real time due to not considering adding other factors in such as slippage and commissions, etc. If it does well in real time after a few month, let it go with real money with small lots and see how it goes. Need to keep an eye on the Max drawdown. This is the biggest problem for many traders. The guide is to have max DD x 2 the money to cover these dips. You also have to decide where the cutoff point is (pulling the plug when it reaches a loss). Many use the trendline of the equity curve or 2x max DD for example. Adding slippage and commission into the strategy testing makes the difference between heavy losses and extreme gains. Without commissions and slippages With commissions and slippages

Anyone knows his work compared to Elder or Mark Douglas? Any difference at all?

One other question? How many days must go by before the peak demand is disqualified as peak demand? Is virgin POC important?

So far, your explanation makes perfect sense. But I see a few things unanswered. How do you determine where the peak demand or supply is? From MP? Price-by-volume indicator? And how do you determine the low/high zone where to place your stop when you go long on peak demand area or short on peak supply area? How do you make the entry? When momentum reverses in the opposite direction. Say, when and if it hits 787.6, do I wait for the next bar to go higher than the previous bar to go long? The other question is, from last Friday's MP, I see a P shape, so this means that 792 is not absorbed yet but it's no longer peak demand area correct? Since we don't know what Wednesday's MP shape will be, we expect Wednesday to be in 792-799 action seeing Friday's MP shape?

Welcome to system trading world, jay! Enjoy your ride! It's a new interesting, fascinating world... but it's also lots of headaches and failures as well if you are not too careful with it. I do many analyses of indicators and systems and backtested them in many timeframes and symbols. Most fail... except for a few. But those are keepers. This is also the reason I came to a conclusion that most indicators if not all are not useful and unnecessary in trading except price. But don't get me wrong. There are those who them use in their trading with good results. I myself just haven't found it.

Thanks. I'll keep that in mind. I am curious as to why you use 60min while the others use 30min to set up their MP.

Hi FD1, can you post one of @ER2? I'd like to see your observation on it. Since I'm still a newbie with MP, I would like to see what the experts out there use MP to trade properly. Thanks.

Interesting. On january 3rd, can you post the forecast as soon as you have it? I'd like to see that this is not done after the fact. Thanks.

It's true that my systems don't trade everyday despite using intraday charts. The conditions to trade only when the direction is already confirmed. I use the same money management in these systems as my discretionary trading, so any DDs would be the same. I aim to create systems that can emulate my style and risk tolerance else I'd never trade them. This is the reason why there are many systems out there that seem profitable but the DDs are so large, I don't have the guts to withstand the DDs. I have to pass them up. This is the difficult part in system trading is that no system can trade more than 5 trades a day and stay profitable. Slippage and commissions will eat it alive. The feedback from traders in TS forums have confirmed this. Higher timeframes have better chances of lasting longer and be profitable. So less trades greater profitability.

Is this for GBPUSD? This is forex only forecasts?

How long have you been using their services? What kind of trading is it? Swing? Day? What instruments? I'm just curious.

Great contribution, scalp. One question: any volume we should be looking out for? About using tick charts?

Nice explanation with good VA. It's true that I need confirmation to take the short in the chart given. Why? Because I don't have a clue where my stop is or should be in the chart when the second top is not even finished yet. As mentioned earlier, I'm a freak with stop losses, so I have to see it to calculate the R/R. If I don't see the nearest top and I have to guess, then I'd rather stay on sidelines until the confirmation is shown. I assume you have an idea where your stops are, so I'd like to find how you use it.

I agree. This is why many successful system traders advise to keep their system open and flexible, the less variables the better. This is also why higher timeframes work so well vs. intraday trading. I have 3 working systems and they do a nice job of capturing the essence of the market direction with only 1 indicator and price is the other indicator over time. I discretionary trade because my mission is to understand the markets as much as possible before getting more into system trading. I want to know how the market works for myself before building more. Took me 2 yrs to come up with 3 systems so I figure my learning curve in building them would increase as my discretionary gets better.

The word "forecast" itself is a warning already. Even weatherman cannot accurately forecast the weather much less the trader with the markets.

Prices either confirm one direction or another or neither. I trade on confirmation to reduce risk unless the S/R is a major one like on monthly or weekly charts. I let prices tell me when I should get in and get out, not S/R as my primary signal. Many times, I've left money on the table anticipating an S/R would stop prices, but end up breaking through and stay broken. Price first, S/R second is my rule of thumb. S/R are there but it's just another line unless prices react to it. But I do anticipate the targets by looking for S/R as possible exit points. This anticipatory guess is to calculate my RRR only. For entries, I need confirmation to get in, like higher high/low or lower high/low. Without this, market may continue and my entry will be way off and no nearest support in sight to set my stop. If I don't have a stop, I don't take a trade. I need to let the market find me a support first before I can use it as a stop (talking about long entries here). True the entry and stop distance is far but the risk of anticipate is what many players do like "catch the falling knife" in smaller scales. I stopped doing that after finding out the bleeding from the cuts were too excessive. One last thing, anticipating is also going against the momentum, this is something I cannot allow myself to get into. I can never anticipate where the downmove will stop. Even at S/R there is a tendency for prices to overshoot it then reverse so the stop is useless because it may get hit. Best thing is to wait for it to form and go with the momentum. Momentum is what get you into profit quickly and many times stay in profit.

Wow, now the Russians are selling trading services? Amazing how little it takes for free enterprise to turn into the bad side of capitalism.

So you're not planning to learn anything except follow someone else's forecasts? What happens when the forecaster dies or go bankrupt? Got any contingency for that scenario?

In a way scalptrader is right because there are alot of false messiahs in this industry that no one should be fully trusted unless he proves with performance and results. Anyone can claim anything, including me, but without proof, it wouldn't fly unless you do careful DD. A better way to interpret scalptrader's thread is: don't follow blindly, do research for yourself. Anyway, I personally don't follow anyone after follow so many already from earlier in trading career. But it's healthy to look around but always with a skeptical eye is all. Accept these people are your mentors/guides etc, but remember that it's your own initiative to get into their chat rooms, your own bank account and credit card that you punched in on their site to get education from them. In the end, accept these fact with responsibility is all I'm saying, can't blame anyone else for trying to make a living, a bit dishonest by some but always the responsibility always lie with you. This is trading, accepting responsibility for your own actions is the first step to growing as a trader so accept this step too as your own doing. Good luck and happy new year! Be nice and play nice please!

Happy Holidays and Prosperous 2007, Everyone!!! Hope Santa brings plenty what's left of this year and full year next year!!

It depends on what instruments you're talking about. In forex, there is no volume data at all so my only analysis is through price action, fibonacci levels, and session highs/lows, and natual S/R levels. In this case, all players are without this data so it's fair to everyone. In eminis, volume is an added and necessary data so using it is a must since you'll be at a disadvantage when others have access to it to give them an edge. Hope this helps.

So these traders are clueless? I thought you had to have a decent track record before trading their money.

Can you explain what prop traders and prop firms are? I was tempted to join one a long while back but decided against it having reading a few reads here and there and wasn't convinced enough to trade in freedom and keeping my own money. Is it as true as some forums claim?