torero

To calculate target, you can either use the other fib levels. If there is a pattern from this play, then I would use that target from the pattern. The other is to find the nearest major resistance. From this chart, it could be 38.2% level or the next one which is 3280. I usually watch the higher high/low in lower timeframe for this action. If it shows weakness near any of these areas, then it's possible resistance is making an impact.

Yep, this setup looks as good it gets, break of the last bar high is the right spot to go long. Thanks for the lookout!

You've come to the right place. TL is almost a santuary of JC's works, lots of followers, admirers, etc of his work.

That's very interesting, I've always been curious about prop firms and their policies. Any experience you can share will be greatly appreciated. I assume your experience with this firm, there was no freedom to trade your style or methodology?

From what I understand, forex does not provide volume (true volume) because of the decentralized marketplace. If you get volume, then it might be incomplete or not true representation of the entire picture of all the transactions that go on. Maybe Buk and Tex can clear this up as they have been trading forex longer than I have (many times over), I'm just starting out and from research it's what I understood. EC because it's traded in an exchange, all volume is recorded there, so if volume is paramount for your strategy, then you might be better off with EC rather than forex itself. I'm just more comfortable with forex now than ever, even without volume. One thing that comforts me is that no one see true volume (except banks that see their own clients' order flow, but their own clients only and not the entire marketplace) so we're almost at level playing field. For the moment, without volume, I'm doing ok, it comes down to price action and a few indicators suffice for now. Of course, all this yapping from me can be wrong. What do I know? I'm just a newbie.

My opinion is level 2 is just as unreliable on stocks and futures as it is in forex, lots of head game as well. I don't even look at level 2 for either market, only charts and Time and Sales for futures (more reliable because it recorded all the transactions instead of likely transactions). Unfortunately, forex has no time and sales nor volume, so only charts and a few indicators (pivots, fibs, S/R) are the only tools I use. But then again, most if not all forex traders have no access to T&S nor volume either.

80% of the time pretty much screws the reliability of the backtest results wouldn't you say? You want to test as close to 100% real world environment as possible. Those 20% could well mean all the winning trades that never happen. IMO I wouldn't even continue testing if I cannot find a 99% of the results resembling live trading.

brown, you trade around news time then? Do you trade or hold it overnight?

Hi don4, I use MBTrading, which is based on the same platform as EFX (check these 2 sites and you'll see what I mean, I'm also in the yahoo group that is using the API on this platform and they mentioned MBT and EFX interchangeably). No problems for live account, best non-dealing desk so far, fills are immediate and very consistent quotes. You can setup a mini-account and test it out yourself. Been with them 3 years now, 6 months with their FX platform.

Well, you make it look easy. But glad to see things are paying off your hard work, "people get exactly what they deserve", as I always say, especially true in trading. I'm learning little by little so I'm getting there.

I agree, I still have a tendency to overtrade, this is why I'm trying to find a time cycle method to keep from exit or entry too early. I'll review again to get a better ideas. There will be questions, no doubt about it.

tin, it's proven at least from testing trading systems that if you have more winning trades than losing trades, the avg win vs avg loss is smaller. If you have a larger avg win than the avg loss, the winning number of trades are higher. This is to assume your strategy is a winning strategy. It's rare, but not impossible, to find a strategy that has higher percentage of wins over losses AND a greater avg win over avg loss. If you have it, you got the holy grail!

hok, you're very perceptive and extremely quick on picking things up. Bravo! I hope they serve you well. I'm actually quite interested more now that hok has managed to so easily integrated this strategy into his own. Surprisingly it seemed easy to adapt. So I guess it's my turn to learn the rest of the stuff I didn't pick up from Tex and Buk. Good luck and we're looking forward to your progress!

ok, sorry about that.

Are you saying 45 ticks means 4.5 ER2 points right? I was confused thinking you meant .45 of a point. Is this how it looks, the 3rd bar is the bottom of the fib level?

How does one deal with a range-bound day? I assume time becomes a more important factor right? Is there a stop loss placed? I hope you can stop in the chat room today, I'd like to hear more about it, especially using time cycles. Thanks.

Very nice and simple strategy sniper! You were the one that mentioned that fibs don't work as well on ticks as one minute charts correct? I'll have to take a look closer at that. From the chart I don't see the 0 and 100% lines were drawn to get 23.6, can you explain this more? Thanks.

sorry about being vague. Yes, it was the 780 mentioned as Asian high, but it was that same bar that made that high not from previous session correct?

the GBPUSD asian high developed after the fact right? I saw it was at the 50% retracement from recent top to recent bottom. I guess I'm not following you too well here.

way to go hok! You pick things up quick! Good for you!

GBPJPY and GBPUSD is moving, watching it closely for opps to short here.

Here's my next trading plan, wait for it move up between 35 and 75 (between 2 resistance levels) and watch how it does in 15min. If I see lower high/low patterns, I may take the short. The other possibility that this might not happen is because it's Friday. If the short moves nicely I may take it, if it hovers after lower high/low, I may sit out. We'll see.

It's at apex and just below 78.6 level and major resistance. But the other conflicting signal I see if the higher high/low. So I'm neutral for now until prices break one way or the other.

brownsfan, I traded EC a little in the past but was not getting much results until I found GBPUSD and little by little other pairs, a whole new world of uncorrelated instruments you can trade just in the forex alone, so US indices have no influence on these animals. I think the bucketshops (dealing desk) are there and changing as well. I've been using MBtrading FX (ie. non-dealing desk), quotes and orders go straight to spot so most of the major pairs are 1-2 pips max. It's true there are some unscrupulous brokers out there but there are many traders who found the right brokers and have no problems with forex at all. So I think the idea of lack of regulations should not hinder anyone from trading forex, it's a matter of doing proper research before committing your money.

What a great tool, thanks buk. Site has some nice stuff.