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torero
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Everything posted by torero
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I agree and I do it as well. By scaling in and out, it deters the trader from moving quickly into the opposite side (from long to short and vice versa). Markets don't change trends that quickly so the best way to ride it and stay on the same trend until the profits are reducing or no longer coming in, then it's time to bail and wait for the other direction to set up. Some may not advocate scaling in and out but it keeps you in the trend better than if you don't scale.
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Hi sledge, It's good to concentrate on one to get a feel for it, that's how I started with GBPUSD. Little by little I started studying a few others, but I limit myself to 3-4 for now, anymore might be overkill for one trader. But I monitor up to 8 pairs to see if the moves are legit (support from other pairs).
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I think the problem is that what we hold as something positive in society is in fact a fallacy in trading. Take instant gratification, which marketers tout as a right by consumers. Patience take a back, this is a virtue that is lost but very difficult to overcome because we've been conditioned for so long practicing this vice. This is the reason why many cannot and will not succeed by taking profits to early, which will end their overall winnings in the long run. Of course, by taking profits early invoke other emotion, regret, shoulda woulda coulda mentality which later on cause more anxiety and reckless trading (chasing, etc). There are other habits that need to be suppressed or overcome in order to succeed.
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Trading Action Reaction Lines - A Presentation
torero replied to BlowFish's topic in Technical Analysis
The use of price action to manage the trade is what I use and he explains it quite well. Good stuff. Regarding the shifting the pitchforks requires a bit of know-how and practice that's for sure. -
Excellent post! Great summary and examination of each point. Bravo!
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This week and last week has been nothing but noise, I managed to stay out until today. I made a point to stay out of trading during last 2-3 days of the month as you folks have pointed out big guys to repositioning their inventories, thus the non-direction. Somehow yesterday coincided with Fed news day so I can assume the move, but I stayed out anyway. Sitting tight sure was tough but was worth the wait, don't have to dig my way out like I used to do. One other note I wanted to mention was I used to stay out of trading Fridays but it's been quite trendy on these days, not sure why they've been good to me. I'm currently on a position on GBPCHF from a breakout this morning and dare I hold it until 2.12? I see it's a pretty drop and assume the pretty pop up as well without much congestion.
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Trading Action Reaction Lines - A Presentation
torero replied to BlowFish's topic in Technical Analysis
thanks, guys for the link. I've been looking for a long time or some background how to use pitchforks. I just watch the webinar and was very informative. I'll test them out to see if they fit my method. Good stuff. forsearch, your link doesn't seem to work. Please check. -
Negative Fundamental Releases Ahead of Fed Announcement
torero replied to DannyBly's topic in Market News & Analysis
Of course, anything can happen from now until the end of the year... like another Bear Stearns coming out of the closet or some aftermath meltdown no one knows it yet. -
You guys are good!
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Welcome, supereme! There is no one right way of doing things but there are 2 categories know need to strengthen or be very well knowledgeable in, learn price action (via candlesticks, etc) and psychology. One cannot be successful without the other. Set up a system to develop these 2 areas (screen time, back test, psych tests and tools, journals, etc). Read as much as you can, but remember, they will confuse you so have to monitor what's influencing you in a positive or negative way. Learn to extract what you need only. Good luck with your journey!
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We're stuck in a range today last few days. Seems after the big moves, time to take a break.
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Yep, I always mark the weekly and monthly chart S/R zones even before viewing the smaller timeframes. These are the most important factors that decide in small timeframes where prices stop and go.
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When playing the lower timeframes, you have to be more accurate with your execution and price demands at the same time be flexible with the zones AM, AM and Andre are talking about. Accurate means noting the high and low of the zone wait for it to be broken (or you range trade it). Be demanding means if the zone is too wide for your stop loss, don't take the trade or reduce the position to accommodate your risk amount. That means you may have to make stop loss outside this area so the noise doesn´t take you out a trade. Personally I wait for the prices to get out of the zone, a breakout and take a small position just to make sure if it runs away quick, I´ll have small profit and not wine about missing it. If it fails then I took that small loss (from small position). The other reason why I take a small position is that the percentage is high that the breakout might be a false breakout. But when the breakout prices pull back and support keeps higher, than I know it's time to push hard and add more positions. This time the percentage is higher than the breakout trade, so I add more. Nothing is guaranteed in writing so confirmation is key.
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I see we're all taking our Sunday at the park eh?
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Yeah I used to use patterns but I find that S/R play out better than pattern for currencies. Patterns still make sense in stocks and eminis (contrasts lie in 24-hr vs market hours instruments?). If you go back to some of Anna-Marie's (trader formerly known as Texx ... or Prince...ss --couldn't help myself. hee hee), she uses 78% fibonacci as are of possible reversal, that's nugget in itself. I'm glad you found the thread useful but the crux of the work comes from folks AK, AM, and Andre and cowpip too.
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Sledge, I draw both, at least for lower timeframe use anyway, maybe folks trading 240-min and above look at open/close prices and not so much on tails (I assume these are overreacting emotional bunches with stops being hit). I use the tails to keep in mind the brokers sweeping the stops and move it beyond these tails to avoid getting swept in too.
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I see things are warming up to the upside more than I'm used to seeing. But I never take my work home with me for the weekends despite knowing gaps are rare (but it's been jumpy last few weeks), I just want to a string-free conscience-free weekends and enter the battle another week with a clean slate. You higher timeframe guys hold them over the weekends, I can see the advantages. So Andre, what's your view on my question about news and their effects on the market? Is it even relevant how it's ranked? I know you guys pull out before interest rate and NFP numbers but are the other type of news even concern you guys?
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I gotta a quick question regarding news. There is a list of news for the week and some are rated hot, red hot, and cold turkeys according to how much they affect the prices. http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php I noticed some do make the market jump while others just fizz out on its own (despite being red hot). Do you follow these too or are they just for retailing suckers like us? I ask this because at times the charts tell me to take the trade but I hesitate due to the impending news, then nada, it sits there and does as I had suspected and I eventually miss my entry. Other times I ignore the news and take the trade anyway and do get some nice results. It's hit and miss I take it.
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Correction! it was 163.23 my first entry, not 162.23 (my bad). This gets everyone confused when numbers and charts don't coincide. Since I'm just a small fry, smaller timeframes suit me just fine. Although I hope to be looking to trade from 240-min frame sometime in the future and will be looking for some pointers from your crew from that moment on. Despite the smaller timeframe, my strategy don't call for too many trades, 2-5 trades a week so I'm a screen couch potato rest of the time. :missy: Only 1-2 good trade comes along a week really and when it finally does move, I'll be sure to compound the mo-fo to make up for the lack of overtrading
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I don't know if you noticed as I just noticed, the dang long bottom shadow has disappeared! It was supposed to look like yours. The bar just before the green arrow on the left. Somehow historical data is just plain dubious. Don't know who's to blame the feed provider or the SW. If someone had a position and walked away and come back to see he's stopped out, he'd never know what happened. Geez.
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Thanks AK. My first position was 162.23 after I got stopped out (had a tight stop), then i took another at 162.6 when it found support around .51. Usually it's the sweet spot for me (2nd entry) and load up 2x the original position. I thought there may have been another pullback after this but I wasn't sure so I got out since momentum seemed to petered out. There is consolidation now and possibly there maybe be more upmove, but not going to wait for it as it's already TGIF!
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I see where you're pointing at, thanks, AM. I had my stops taken out on that spike and had to make a re-entry on EURJPY. Don't mind as I had the guts and conviction that tell me trend wasn't finished and was rewarded for it (I actually add more positions it made another pullback after that spike). Not a bad ride, even though it was short. I'm amazed GBPJPY climb 400 pips today. I totally missed that pullback to 204.1 after the breakout from previous night.
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What;s going on with the pairs just now? There was no news but GBPJPY and EURJPY are all spiking upwards. Is there a huge pump of sells on JPY?
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Been busy last couple of mornings so I´ve been missing good entries on these runs. There´s always next time.
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Yeah, I've noticed over the few months that angled trendlines don't hold up too well in forex, mostly horizontal lines, which is what I base most of trading decisions on. It's certainly helpful to have these trendlines from time to time to identify the bias on the direction during consolidation periods such as the chart I posted above. Aren't you all technically skilled in order to trade forex? Or are there elements of fundamental analysis by brainstorming what-if questions (like Bruce Kovner does)?