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torero
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Everything posted by torero
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Sorry, folks for the error. I'm trying to get my site back up in a few days. Things have been hectic around here, the admin shut us down and now is trying to move the site to another server and we were hacked a while back. We wanted to lay low until the spam and find out where the hacker is coming from and what he's doing. We'll have it back up as soon as move is over. Sorry about the problem.
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The Chinese and the others to whom we owe which is a long list including Iran. Unfathomable isn't it?
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welcome jhellie, enjoy your stay and have fun!
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Seeing the price action should give you enough clues that a sideway markets are in progress. If you see the prices don't break the highs or lows of the time chart you're looking, then it's a sideways market. Pure and simple. Of course determining which time chart to use is another problem.
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Do you have a screen shot of it? I may know by other names.
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Welcome flier, hope the crisis is not hitting too hard where you are. Have fun!
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I may be stepping on a few feet by making this audacious observation but here goes. I think pure capitalism or free markets doesn't work without government regulation or partial governmental ownership over big corporations. In the 1920s there were no regulation in place and greed just took the country to the cleaners. This current crisis see us doing it again. Most pundits think the government was too big and controlling too much. This lesson only tells us again if we don't control greed, we all lose. The markets will figure out and play itself out as the argument would say. Obviously, it does and it seems to be working, unfortunately, we're going down to the drain with the weakest of the fittest. It's too big to fail, so we bail them out. I would prefer them staying small or be heavily regulated if they are too big because we all fail if they fail. We have to go beyond anti-trust laws and put in anti-humongous laws to safeguard the rest of us if they fail.
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It's not that the market is not thrilled about Obama, I think now that the focus on elections is over, now it's back to earnings and economy that takes the front seat again. That means, the crisis ain't over, not that the Obama or McCain will make the crisis go away overnight.
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I admit I was a disillusioned by W and voted for Obama in the end. I originally support W's war in Iraq but when I found out the CIA flaw in confirming WMD's existence and W's willingness to go on his own judgement, it pretty much buried my support for him. Of course, it didn't help when the credit crisis finally came and wished all the money we had spent on would have come in handy to bail out the banks. I like McCain for his experience but he support most of W's agenda. My only concern is Obama's lack of experience. But anything in the different direction is better the direction the US is heading. But that's all I'll say. I'm flexible in views and beliefs but gross incompetence is just unacceptable.
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welcome crystal. Hope you find useful info here. Have fun!
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I agree, it will be a while before the crisis is declared dead. There are things to alleviate it but hopefully Obama finds the right competent advisors to steer in the right direction. One good thing out of all this is that the US can't be accused of being racists anymore by enemy or hostile countries.
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Hi Vince, I no longer use Tradestation but Ensign. I'm sure any member can help you with that. Sorry.
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Well, if you're the top brass, it's a like a crap shoot knowing you'll walk with a bonus if even things don't pan out (golden parachute), so why not go for broke? Think about it. If they risk, everyone loses, but still walk with a insurance policy to keep you unemployed for a few years if not a lifetime. If you win, everyone's is happy and he get even a bigger cut. So it's win-win situation. That's the kind of backward, f-ed-up incentive and message the financial or corporate breeding we endorse? Doesn't make sense for the longest time, now the consequences are playing out, guess what? People fix things only a tragedy has happen, not before. We deserve what we got. You ignore the problem long enough, it'll come back as a massive snowball. The other thing that's convinced me over time is no matter how smart you are, greed still own you. All these ivy leaguers who run the show in Wall St. are only human. We worship them because of the brain power. They create all these new markets using complex math formulas, wow indeed. But when it comes to greed, nothing to envy, guys. Hell with the formula, take the bigger risk and go for the gold. In the end, they can't control greed either, just like the average joe.
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The press is claiming the weak $ caused the CL to spike. I haven't seen the relation until the recently. But it's also possible CL is causing the $ to strength. But I think it's the perspective of the US economy that drive the USD which may cause the CL to move as well. Certainly requires further analysis. Interesting to see how they all move violently lately, especial CL's biggest day move ever... impressive stuff.
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Yes, I thought Tess was polite and non-condescending. As for the fundamental analysis, you're right that it may not serve the short- and medium-term trader but a basic understanding the mechanics of why things move they way they do is warranted. Of course, after that, markets may move in the opposite direction, that is where your experience comes in as trader to guide you to make the right decision. Some people do well just using technicals while combine both.
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I thing I did to avoid cutting short my winners was to add on positions. It sounds stupid for some but give it a thought and possibly try it, a small position at first. This is something I overcame, it forces me to stay in the position and in the same market direction when it signalled the trade I made was a right trade.
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"Stagflation is a period of inflation combined with stagnation (that is, slow economic growth and rising unemployment), generally including recession.[1] The portmanteau term "stagflation" is generally attributed to British Conservative MP and later Chancellor of the Exchequer Iain Macleod, who coined the term in a speech to Parliament in 1965.[2][3][4] Economists have identified two principal contributing causes of stagflation. First, stagflation can result when an economy is slowed by an unfavorable supply shock, such as an increase in the price of oil in an oil importing country, which tends to raise prices at the same time that it slows the economy by making production less profitable.[5] Second, both stagnation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply, and the government can cause stagnation by excessive regulation of goods markets and labor markets. When combined, the presence of both these factors is more than sufficient to launch an era of stagflation. For example, policies which promote growth in the money supply to allow consumers to afford higher priced oil contribute as a cause for runaway inflation, even if implemented to fight stagnation or recessions. The global stagflation of the 1970s is often blamed on both causes: it was started by a huge rise in oil prices, but then continued as central banks used excessively stimulative monetary policy to try to avoid the resulting recession and stagnation, causing a runaway wage-price spiral.[6] John Maynard Keynes wrote in The Economic Consequences of the Peace that governments printing money and using price controls were causing a combination of inflation and economic stagnation in Europe after World War I. Stagflation was also a very serious macroeconomic problem in the 1970s. In contrast to central bank responses to the oil price spike of the 1970s where similar policies were pursued on both sides of the Atlantic, the 21st Century began with America going one way to fight recession and Europe going the other way to fight inflation." US and European executing different policies to deal with stagflation!!!! Now what?!!!! Who's coming out alive? Any analysis and opinions on this one?
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Welcome bootstrap! Out of curiosity, mind telling us what the cowboy manual you're talking about?
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Good one, MC. The mind does have subversive motives. Yes, most people do try to find the answer in order to find an impossible feat: capturing tops and bottoms. But don't fall for that. Spotting tops and bottoms is one thing but trying to profit from them is usually not that profitable.
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It depends on what timeframe you're looking it. It may be end of trend on a 1min while a 30min chart it's not. In general the best test is see end of trend is use the higher high/low or lower high/low test. This is how I interpret it as trend or not. But of course, the markets throw curve balls when you least expect it so it takes experience and trial and errors to understand them.
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John Murphy's books are very solid work, really recommend them. No comment on Schwager's technical books as haven't read them, only Market Wizard series.
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What struck me on Friday was GBPUSD went up while GBPCHF went down. Seems the market is diverging giving signs in money moving unilaterally (I think?). Any idea on this movement?
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I don´t think anyone in Spain is even debating about going back to their own currency. The last time the housing market crisis back in 1994-1995 happened because of the 15% inflation but since with the Euro, the inflation has been in check so I don´t think the housing market is as bad as the last time. Way too many advantages to unglue now. Of course, oil wasn´t part of the equation. I think there´s still room to maneuver for the gov´t. The prices at the pump is 30% or so more is due to taxes so there is still room to reduce it to lessen the worries. There has been talk of consumer cutting down consumption by not traveling far on their holidays this summer or outright not going on vacation. For the moment, I don´t correlate oil to the currency fluctuations but of course it could be ignorance and naivety on my part.
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Yep, I took that dip as well and stayed until before the close of the NY session (no weekend holds for me for now).
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Seems EURJPY has been a deadbeat lately, always have to keep an eye on other pairs to play. I've been holding back from trading due to inaction from these. Finally, GBPCHF gave me something to trade with. Obviously I've missed the cable and $ is getting volatile again.
