Kiwi

An interesting one for a break down is Swissy Thales. Might break bounce and break but it definitely has a strong down position (pausing after breaking below support at 78%).

Ziebarf, Yes I did get it on Iron (open source google spy free version of chrome) and flagged it to MMS a couple of days back. I got it on the front page as well. You can turn it off as per the unticked box in the diagram so it doesn't annoy for the next few days. MM, Once you're sure that there are no links there you need to get Google to retest the site. Apparently it takes about 8 hours for them to certify you ok. I found their discussion on this in the first page by Googling the error message I sent to you. Kiwi .

Agreed Thales that would be worth adjusting. MM, I think the site is essentially run well. There have always been the odd software glitches to be fixed. The number of adverts I see is just fine. And you remove the posts where I most egregiously poke sticks and the stupid. All good. What's more I enjoy your personal posts. Keep up the good work.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Urma, you really do take the cake. You are such a great person. You are the most wonderful. We just bow to your superior ego. In your little trailer park of a mind. Funny too when you get a little spiteful - but pathetic and inaccurate with it as one would expect of the congenitally insane. You hurt me like this Urma is such a brute (in his own mind) .

I enjoyed both Macdfx's video and yours Osbourne. Its the sort of thing worth exposing yourself to slightly different perspectives on. It is b funny that the Aussie polis are busy promising to fix public education by rewarding the best performing teachers. Kinda like the "leave no little sod behind" that you guys have over there for screwing up education to no good purpose. Another stupid election campaign with pork being offered to all who will vote for them. On topic though I came across a post by Hanover on a different web site beware, rubbish often spoken here

With the exception that you haven't banned UrmaBlume for his pretentiousness, egotism and general lack of any redeeming qualities I find that the site has picked up again in recent weeks. Well done (except for that) MM

And in such certainty and boldness lie the reasons why one will always have opportunities in the markets.

Something to think about. Markets move because of power + motivation. Big speculators have both. Typical bank traders as described by Cornhusker (do you watch the Big Bang Theory?) often don't. I've known a couple of guys who manage trading in banks well enough to hear the truth. One was currently employed at one Australian bank but it was his second bank trading role. The other was in London but before that he'd been a Tokyo bank. Here's the thing: most banks make all of their "trading" money by taking it from the customers as generous spreads. Their actual trading is a loser but they consider it necessary to maintain contacts and knowledge required to optimally sex their customers. You need to understand the banks that are active profitable speculators or the true commercial speculators not the typical fx involved banks. And if you talk to your average bank trader don't be surprised if he paints that picture (even when its bs) because he wants to appear to be a big swinging dick - its like asking a salesman how its going - even in a recession it will be going great.

Hi bakrob, I seem to recall you describing and impulse retrace method of trading that would be perfectly suited to high probability low win/loss "scalps." Are you still trading this style? And, thus, as perhaps the only "scalper" in this thread would you comment on the merits of different probability/winsize ratios from your experience? kiwi

daedelus, I think the reasons for scaling out are mainly psychological: - early because of the pain of a winner turning into a loser - long holds to reduce the pain of missing out. Mechanical traders rarely scale out because testing usually shows that one set of choices are good and the others are weak. The DIBs method (buying trend inside bar breaks) over at ff is a good example of this where the originator suggested 1/2 off at 1:1 and long hold on the other half - which gives people the sense of a free trade and thus ease of holding. But it turns out that the 1:1 with that setup has a negative expectancy so its main/real purpose was just to make the hold on part 2 easier. So, I guess my point is: if the expectancy of one part is much higher then you should do it that way but be prepared for the psychological downside of not scaling and armour yourself against it. Its also possible though that your strategy for the second part is suboptimal - have you looked at some sort of trailing strategy that would really capture big trends when they come?

Siuya, You need to consider that some entry/worst case stop setups are well suited to a high win rate. On the other hand a different one might be well suited to getting into a long run but have a low win rate. There is no better. There is only profit and probability. And personal fit.

Actually IB's public (edemo) data isn't "real;" its sole purpose is to demonstrate tws and it is deliberately munted. The internal demo data (for users) is real and fine for testing.

The Dude's call is a good one and don't even forget the thinner markets if you're willing to take a multiday swing. Rough rice is one of the most readable things out there. And look at live cattle for a mean reversion trade (contract by contract) although I recall the pain of being long LC when the US finally had a Mad Cow scare. The other thing is newbies should trade slow. Basic TA actually works. But few traders win with it and I think its much more to do with the fear/greed issues that Mark Douglas described in the disciplined trader and TITZ. The faster the trade the more gut and emotion get to have a place to play. It takes the brain 15-30 minutes for the chemicals to disperse after an emotionally charged event! So daily or hourly or H4 are great timescales for a beginning trader. And even an experienced trader ... less stress, more time to think, slippage and commission matter less, and the TA is clearer as the market noise to signal ratio declines.

Actually hes going for small stops as well, 2 points and win sizes 1-10 times that size. His method looks reasonably solid and he actually says enough for you to figure it out. You're basically looking at a bunch of moderately correlated pairs and if you have watched the UK opening you know you get these nice periods where for several minutes you get smooth movement. He's just waiting till he gets agreement from the other three and pipping from GU. It should work quite well as long as (as he suggests) you can be patient enough to wait for smooth movement and correlations to show up.

You really waste your time casting pearls before swine Thales. Some will never get it and all we can hope is that they actually do put some money into the market from time to time.

Johnny, There is a reason that even your Mother doesn't like you. You clearly don't understand the infinite yield reference and you assume that the good folk here are ignorant of the basic stuff you think you are slapping people around with. Ignorance and Arrogance is a bad combination really. At least you are not adding grandiosity to the equation.

The last post and the lick-spittle make the point. .

At least I don't live in Geelong; that would make me suicidal. .

Thales, do you realize that this board has been overrun by people like SDG and Urma. The funny thing is that there are a few real self-managed traders here but between the grandiose and the disaffected losers the board has become rather disappointing. If you think of somewhere better let me know.

Aint the Net great. Here is a dog who is famous in his own mind. Woof Woof Pat. Funniest thing is that he's a paranoid dog. Accuses Brownsfan of attacking him (but wait, he was the attacker). Paranoid. Delusions of Grandeur. Hmmm ... I guess you can post from the hospital now.

I'm guessing based on the information below that you could add 16% to those figures so its now exceeding 120 billion a day (not including IB). "Overall foreign exchange trading volumes dropped last year, but trading by retail investors is on the rise, according to a new report from Greenwich Associates. The firm says that global FX volume declined by 6% in 2009, but trading by retail aggregators rose by 16%, pushing their share of trading volume up to 12% from 11% in the previous year. “With the downturn in equity markets and high levels of volatility among global currencies, FX trading gained popularity among retail investors around the world during the global financial crisis,” it says, noting that the beneficiaries of this trend have been firms that provide execution services to retail traders."

LOL ... trust you to notice. The other interesting issue is the missing brokers. I wouldn't mind betting that IB's contribution would be pretty significant too - not so much the number of transactions as the bigger sized trades.

Worried your trade can't be covered? From Forex Magnates I know you’ve been expecting it so here it is: The largest and most up-to-date report detailing the average trading volumes by retail Forex brokers. The report shows that all prior estimates were far from the actual figures. Retail forex volume doubled itself in less than two years and the total average daily volume is well above $100B. Largest retail Forex broker, as you probably already know, is FXCM with Oanda coming in at a distant second place. It looks like FXCM’s world Forex domination is all but complete and all that is left for others is the competition for 2nd and 3rd places. Good luck Oanda, Gain, Saxo and GFT. The numbers as were officially, and to some extent unofficially, released by the brokers themselves: and the rest of the article is over there.

Its always interesting to see the debate. Even more interesting when I refrain from leaping in with "you bloody idiot ... you don't know what you're talking about." I do think it but I won't say who I thought it about this time. I'm trying to master my desire to fix your thinking. A new poster, mb3000, posted this link in answer to a request of Al Brooks videos. People responding to or just reading this thread might enjoy the video on that page by Jack Schwager - Winning Methods of the Market Wizards. He's definitely on topic. .

Just guessing aren't you nate. Don't forget that good traders don't have to have a level on a chart to be aware that there is risk of reversal at certain areas and be sensitive to that. They don't necessarily "believe in fibs" but they are not dogmatic about current movement. Also remember that you don't have to be looking at an hourly fib level if you're trading momentum on a 5m chart ... you might exit because momentum stopped with no fib thought in your head. I've always been amazed at how good my S&R/Fib blind systems are at being fib sensitive. If enough pressure (power in the markets comes from size but also motivation) occurs at a fib point than fib free people will still respond to it.