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Kiwi
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Everything posted by Kiwi
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Dr. Vohs notes that self-control problems occur because people are caught up “in the moment’’ and are distracted from their long-term goals. She says that in lab studies, self-control is boosted when people conjure up powerful memories of the things they value in life. Laughter and positive thoughts also help people perform better on self-control tasks. http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/how-to-boost-your-willpower/
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I can't believe I said "before, during and in" a trade. Thank you Eiger. I do mean "and after."
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Thats not it. I've got both browsers and only have 3. I also cleared cache and only have 3. So it must be user dependent.
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I suspect that one of the most important aspects of journalling and also of running checklists before, during, and in a trade may be that they change your state to one more aligned with your intended discipline.
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I never pick the tops and bottoms, I just wait for it to start a new trend, so short or long doesn't matter much to me. I do agree that in the stock/index futures world down is faster than up most of the time but I find I probably do about as well in either situation.
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Well done Aaron.
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That is an excellent question Eiger. FWIW I ask myself these questions before every trade (but love Eiger's metaquestion): 1. Does the volume trend support this trade & has it gone far enough back? 2. Do the ma’s support a trade? 3. Why am I entering this trade? 4. What’s my target, stop and risk reward? 5. Will this entry point be technically perfect? I find they help me stay on track for the big question. Thought I'd add the trade I took just before I posted. Note that profiting isn't necessary for a trade to be excellent - just doing the right thing .
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LOL James, filtered communications is good (I don't listen to the prime minister or that silly woman on Channel 7 and my life is better for both). Hopefully its an easy fix. I solved the problem last time by simply leaving the site for a couple of years. It seems a little early to repeat that so they're currently on my "mental ignore" but like "mental stops" they just are not quite as good.
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Damnation and blast it! The person I added (because I don't particularly like them and think their posts are too frequent and in my opinion sometimes foolish) is in the category: Sorry the_irritating_person is a moderator/admin and you are not allowed to ignore him or her. They don't show as a moderator. By way of contrast I checked and I could ignore forsearch if I wanted to but I don't.
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As a former supermod over at T2W I only half agree with you mcichocki (there must be a story to go with that name?). A supermod should be held to a special standard of behaviour. But to promote discussion and/or information it is not a bad thing to create special forums. In those special forums the mod isn't there to uphold the standards of the site but to promote the specialness of the forum by filtering. You could argue that they should do both ---- but we are humans and being a fantastic trader or knowing something special doesn't imply good qualities for a supermod. One could say that forsearch should stay out of those forums but maybe the boards systems apply the "can't ignore the mod" rule in all forums even though they are not a mod there. So, I second forsearch and suggest that either: - we can ignore mini-mods; or - we can innore all mods if the first can't be achieved. To be honest I think we should be able to ignore anyone. In fact I'm just going to add someone to my list (not in this discussion).
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Actually I think that it should be ok to put mods on ignore. If they are active posters, James, they can post as much tripe as anyone - and their biases can be even stronger. If you're ignoring someone so that you don't get irritated into a fight it would seem even more important to do that with a moderator. You'll notice if they delete or edit your posts even when you don't see their posts. FWIW
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I'll stop talking indicators after this post. And I won't even touch on Bollinger bands. Statistically useless is a judgment I've never heard a statistician make because something is appropriate to the distribution or somewhat inappropriate. And by that definition a std deviation based is assuming a normal curve which we all know is not there in the markets so it is just about as inappropriate. I've made CCIs with Stddev based md1s (I think I creatively called it an sd1 (can I patent that?)) and a number of people used them but we really didn't find them noticeably better than the md1 version. Damn, I lied about bollingers. Do you think that if we built a bollinger with the robust md1 range we could call them ForSearchKiwi Bands (useful for trading funny little thin currencies )? I think it was the great Turtle Trainer, Eckhardt, who said that we should use cruder robust estimators rather than delicate statistical estimators when looking at markets. And md1, like the range normalizer in a stochastic is an elegant example of "crude." Come to think of it, so is my trading. :rofl:
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Inversions are quite common in economic/market cycle theories (bradley etc). Being an e engineer wouldn't make you think about inversions because ee's work in continuous waves rather than studying individual wave propagation and reflection. Well the exception would be radio engineers in the antenna design part of things but that's maybe a couple of percent of all ees FWIW, I suspect most traders would regard markets as having waves not cycles. Cycles implies an extra degree of predictability that waves don't have - like when it might finish! IMHO, cycle theorists are almost as small a proportion of traders as antenna focussed radio engineers are of electrical engineers. You don't need a cycle to know that a market is trending - waves of buying and overreaction are sufficient. Also you don't need cycles to tell that a market is ranging in congestion before reversing or gathering sufficient steam to continue onwards.
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Some are easier to see GammaJammer. With macd divergences its the difference between two mas and its easy to see. With cci because the basic is close vs ma of hlc (like a macd 1,14 where the 14 is simple) and then you divide by the md1 normalizing factor it almost squares the diverging effect ... so you get divergences you can't see by doing "bar movement counts." As someone who watched CCI for about 4 years in real time I still can't see the CCI divergences consistently without it - but I don't trade divergence so I got rid of the CCI anyway !!!! Now if I could just get rid of those two pesky emas I keep using.
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Sledge, Re the CCI/Boll you can get rid of the CCI if you can internalize what a CCI divergence is by understanding CCI. A straight momentum divergence occurs when you get the range over X bars being less then the range over X bars in the previous high (so it didn't push as hard this thrust to get there). A CCI divergence adds an extra flavour because everything is normalized by "md1." md1 is just the difference between the median price and the CCI's underlying sma over the last CCIlength bars. This gives CCI a flavour in divergences that you might not see in rsi, mom or macd divergences. In Jocelyn's example you can see how it sets up because the first peak is a pop out of very small range probably close to a 14sma and the second peak is preceded by bars that are much noisier and probably further from the sma. When you try and integrate that with your brain you will see why, for some things like filtering setups, indicators can be very useful. By all means trigger on price action but filtering for behaviours can be much easier with well understood indicators.
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Thanks for the financial philosopher namstrader, I plan to save him for quiet moments when I might otherwise overtrade. I'll vouch for Denise Shull too; she is very good on the subject of exposing and addressing your emotions so that you can get out of your own way and trade well. Nice big easy listening videos.
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If you're into forex or, like me, just looking at getting back into it on a longer timeframe you might want to check out: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/busy-day-tomorrow-3726-post36531.html
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Here's something to inspire you new "moderators" to greatness. Immoderation
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Thanks Art, Do you guys look at thing like the kiwi, the norwegian kroner, zloty etc etc, or just the biggies? I ask because I was setting up a group to look at for a 4/24hr strategy and was going to use: eu, gu, au, us, uj, ej, gj and uc (s=swiss franc, c=cad) The major change that I've taken from this thread is to include all the crosses and cherry pick the current best opportunities. When you read the forex specific boards there is a lot of discussion about what I would consider very minor currencies and I have been questioning my choice to stick with the bigger liquid options.
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Trading with Market Statistics. IV Standard Deviation
Kiwi replied to jperl's topic in Market Profile
Interesting you should say that MK. I have recently adjusted my Volume bars to self-scale for the last 20 bars but I exclude the opening bar and, for SPI, include all bars after the close of the cash market. This makes Wyckoff style volume use much more effective. How are things going? (pm me ) -
Yes, My thanks to the posters too - both answers and questions. I'm a good sub-5min index AsiaPac Futures trader looking to add longer term forex to my game and I appreciate the information in this thread. Thanks guys. Much appreciated. One question: In your search for good opportunities and strong vs weak pairs to trade which currencies do you look at and which currencies do you discount? Any insights as to why would be greatly appreciated too
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TWS is great. Not slow. Not stuck here. I use Sierra Chart to chart the data and as a front end for order entry and management. >> core2duo 8500, 4G ram, XP, TWS&SC run on a Ramdisk both with priorities set to Above Normal, TWS 882.2, Java 1.6_06 << Command line for max efficiency & speed: C:\Program Files\Java\jre1.6.0_06\bin\javaw.exe -cp jts.jar;pluginsupport.jar;jcommon-1.0.0.jar; jfreechart-1.0.0.jar;jhall.jar;other.jar;riskfeed.jar;rss.jar -Dsun.java2d.noddraw=false -server -Xss128k -Xms256m -Xmx256m -XX:NewRatio=3 -XX:+ForceTimeHighResolution -XX:CompileThreshold=50 -XX:ThreadStackSize=192 -XX:+AggressiveOpts -XX:+UseFastAccessorMethods -XX:+RelaxAccessControlCheck -XX:MaxInlineSize=8192 -XX:-DontCompileHugeMethods -XX:+UseConcMarkSweepGC -XX:+CMSIncrementalMode -XX:+ExplicitGCInvokesConcurrent -Xnoclassgc jclient/LoginFrame R:\Jts', 'R:\JTS' )
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"Keep in mind that resistance is not a line but a zone. And that the herd is always right. Except at turning points." I don't know if you've read the wisdom of crowds but its worth adding to your late night reading pile. One thing I found interesting was a distinction made between situations when crowds are wise and situations when they are not. Crowds are wise when they vote individually - wiser than the individuals. Crowds cease to be wise when they start paying attention to what everyone else is doing the ultimate expression of which is group-think. Does that remind you of anything A comment on volume and Wyckoff. I never got volume. I kept trying. For years. And I still didn't get it. I think my problem was that I tried to assign too much importance to it, vsa like, and it wasn't until I'd read a million of dbphoenix's sometimes irritatingly vague posts and peoples sometimes frustrated questions that I started to get it. Now volume is an integral part of my trading and the most useful thing it does is keep me out of trades I would have taken without the little clues that volume adds to the pattern of price movement.
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Interesting post sledge. I use them two ways. If I'm in a trade too long I start looking to clear out simply because I shouldn't still be there (my trades all have targets). I watch the price bars and if I get two swings in the direction of my trade and its still not happening I tighten up the stops or exit. I see the second one as a sort of structural time stop.
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VSA is an extremists view of price and volume. They try to take a lot more meaning from each bar and its volume. Specific bars have special names indicative of what they're telling one. Wyckoff is much more generalist in its approach and can really be applied without volume if its not there. To me volume is something that can help by confirming what price is telling me or putting up a red flag to make me question the judgment and be more cautious but it isn't essential. Interestingly since I started looking more seriously at volume 6-8 months ago I have been taking less trades because of the red flags. Do you guys realize that we've doubled the posting rate on traderslab?