Kiwi

I've read accounts of day traders who faded away and died. Basically they had strategies that had worked well in the up froth and couldn't adapt. Darwin didn't say "survival of the fittest", he actually said "survival of the most adaptable."

It cloaks itself in value ... but really is a discussion of perceived value or what I would once have callously called congestion zones. I think the people who read Market Profile and get a warm feeling of superior knowledge but don't change their strategy are the lucky ones. I too am in that group; I feel as warmly knowledgeable as you firewalker. The unlucky are those that try to trade based on those books - there are easier ways, trust me.

STW is the Taiwan MSCI on SGX futures exchange with ib. It moves in $10 increments but with a little intelligence you can use 5 point stops so the risk is lower than hsi and not much worse than mhi (commission on stw is 4.90 round trip). Yes you can do it all with ib. BUT. I don't know if ninja trader can use the true data. SC can but I don't know if ray has done this for nt.

Thats true. I would go with bund (good liquidity nice trendy moves not too much volatility) and STW (similar) if I was looking for some similarity. You could use ESTX50 rather than bund but I always liked bund.

Then just use IB. When trading MHI watch HSI ... MHI is basically following hsi so even if it gets a few ticks out of alignment it will pull back in because of the arbs. Note that live IB data comes every 200ms but reflects only the last price in that 200ms. So it can miss high or low ticks and you will see that with hsi where the high or low of a minute bar used to be missed 2 or 3 times a day. That's why I did the dll to combine 5 second "true" data with live data for sierrachart. If you're using ninja trader you could do a feed of the true data on hsi and the live data on mhi perhaps so that the highs and lows you work off were 100% correct.

What are you going to be trading? And how many things will you be watching? How many for intraday data? How many for daily data? I ask because for me IB data is "perfect" not quirky at all but this is because I trade relatively few things (thus avoiding backfill pacing problems when you load more than 30 days (or 30x1day) of data at a time). I also use SierraChart because it has a dll I wrote that combines 5 second data with live data to give you data charting that is 100% responsive and corrected by the 5 second bars for any missing ticks or incorrect volume counts in the incoming live data. My understanding on volume counts is that for some exchanges where IB gets a live true volume count their data is 100% correct. For others they have to synthesize it so the live data is slightly off ... tick counts are always off (numbers of transactions not numbers of contracts traded) because IB sends a tick at most every 1/5th second so if 15 transactions occur in 1/5th second then it will show as only 1. I think the major US exchanges may be correct for volume on the live data but don't trade them so I'm not sure.

Phases of Trading Ambush. Plunder. Recovery. Ambush. One waits with his band until the perfect opportunity arises to rush in and plunder the armies, caravans, and other bandits. The easiest prey are young raiders who think they know what they're doing but enter foolishly, stay too long, and often attack just as the armies regroup to push back against the slope. They foolishly fall for magical indications of army movement, can't wait for a good ambush point or chase the armies, wearing themselves out before they reach them --- and they are easy prey. Plunder. When the mass is moving in your direction you've joined the fray and rip plunder from the weak. You watch for rough ground caused by previous fightbacks and abandon the banditry when you sense the risk of reversal and losing your plunder is too high. Recovery. Time to bandage the men's wounds. Let them air their grievances so that they don't bring them into play during the next ambush. Get everyone fed, rested, and ready for the next ambush.

Its not really a capitalization issue (at least not necessarily). There will be a number at which the heart starts to beat. Although this may not be true for psychopaths, base jumpers, and those for whom the money truly is "unimportant." Anxiety when paper trading may be about being wrong or fear that failure in this zone would indicate future failure. In all these things I think that a lot depends on what one invests in each thing; what meanings one assumes; and possibly how it maps to events in ones dim dark past (db's "your father was right -- you are useless.") Although I'm way off my earlier point that one needs both the egg, and then the chicken, to cross the trading road.

I've always liked the idea of a good analogies for trading. My previous favourite was surfing but I've started working on a new one which I will try to develop in this thread. If anyone contributes to the thread can you keep it in line with this core analogy rather than heading off in other directions. My new analogy is an age of empires or dark ages style analogy. Core elements are that each trader is a band of marauders. When you run in your chosen direction (long or short) then you plunder those who were trying to run in the other direction - you literally rip the plunder of their backs as you push them back. If you stay too long and direction reverses they rip the plunder of your back ultimately resulting in a losing raid if you don't go to ground and hide amongst the bushes in the fog (exit). Why a band of marauders? Because their are big bands and small bands and different tactics work better for each group. Also because your band of marauders includes some ill disciplined members who, for example, in the face of a losing raid will immediately want to try again rather than waiting, setting up and ambush, and attaching again when everything is in your band's favour. Why a fog? Because you can feel the slope of the ground (current trend) but you can't see far clearly. You can see rough ground and hillocks ahead where previous fights have left trenches and areas that create the opportunity for a defense ... but you can't see them clearly and don't know how many bands might be hiding there waiting to ambush you. So, it's Germany, after the Roman Empire's greatest days. It's cold, fog rolls through the valleys and periodically volcanoes blow and earthquakes shake the ground and change the overall trend. You've got a band of marauders but there are large armies and caravans that you can loot but their are lots of other bandits out there looking to loot the caravans or your group when you're weak or wrong sided. You and your little band are lurking in the stochastic fog. How are you going to plunder them?

Which brings you back to my earlier assertion: Most people who say that there is nothing psychological about market performance simply haven't traded big enough. I don't know where Arnold's limit will be ... he may be the equivalent of a base jumper and actually have a brain chemistry such that he only ever really feels alive when on the edge of (financial) death. Wasp, what you say reflects a heavily discretionary outcome in your evolutionary process as a trader. It might be though that you could write it down if you worked hard enough at that process and then you might discover that it wasn't so much discretionary as unexpressed. IMHO, anyone who is not yet succeeding in trading will have one or both of system issues or psychological issues. And the harder you push it or the less support and training you have the more likely it is that psychological issues will become important. But I do agree with dbPhoenix that most currently losing traders I have seen have not got: A trading system (strategy/method/mech system/whatever) that they have tested sufficiently and can write down sufficiently clearly that there is no ambiguity in their choices about when to enter, what to do while the trade is live, and what to do after the trade is killed. Without that, its very difficult to identify any psychological work that needs to be done --- so in the chicken or egg argument you need the egg (written tested trading process) first. Then you can start to push up through your goals until your genetically and environmentally determined limits are reached and you start to do the psychological work. Chicken time.

Look at SierraChart. I used to be a TS2000 user but never fancied letting those b'stards be my broker. So when I got into day trading I moved to SC because it was cheap and reliable. Its now very functional, very fast and NOT buggy, although the way they think is different to the way TS think so getting used to HOW the package does its stuff will take a few weeks. Once used to it people don't seem to switch back. It has both Worksheet based programming and dll based programming. I use it with IB only (data + order entry) but quite a few people use SC's optional data feed and IB or other brokers (see their partner page).

LOL :rofl:

Correct Head2k, People seem to argue one side or the other as though the major legitimate authors etc don't get it. But they do - at least on the psych side. None of the psych side argue that psych without a strategy will do a blind bit of good (Shull, Douglas, Steenbarger, Kiev). It may be that there are people on the "you need a good strategy" side who believe that there are no psych issues to deal with if you have a solid tested strategy. I'm not certain of that but I've heard it said that anyone who doesn't think that they have issues with fear etc simply has never traded big enough. I favour that view. We do seem to get into these "my view is more valid than your view" arguments though. Who knows why? Perhaps because they don't work with the market? Perhaps its because internet forums without argument get boring?

Interesting. Your credibility rises with more than one post that doesn't read like a sales letter but still requires posts outside this immediate area to rise much. However, in the area of "recommendations" let the reader always beware. Sharks live in these waters. When I was modding at T2W we discovered a bunch of egyptians (12 ids and multiple people supposedly from different countries) who were puffing a course/system and had done so for 2 years. We only found them because one of their machines went haywire and pumped out a bunch of posts that caused us to investigate. So unless you see 100s of posts across a range of areas or know the poster ---- beware of recommendations for courses!!!!

I don't care what moderators do (as long as they stay out a my face! -- think Concrete Gumboots OAC :deal:) But. A first time poster on a subject like this is extremely suspect. Even if they are "normal people" they were probably asked by the course people to come and give a positive review. It doesn't mean that the review is wrong --- just that its only a little more trustworthy than an invitation to invest with your long lost 3rd cousin twice removed in Nigeria.

I found this post on "Re: Edge VS Mentality" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month August, 2008"

The 5 second data feed is accurate on volumes (but you only get data every 5 seconds unless you use something like SierraChart to combine 5 second data with live data). Given the cost of interest lost on the 10k you'd be better off getting SierraChart and using their realtime data feed. That way you avoid the backfill issues and the quirky nature of ib data (I love it but it does require a bit of knowledge to get the most out of it).

There have been people complain that IB closed their accounts - I suspect they fit the category you are planning to join. So don't complain when it is closed.

Interactive Brokers

If you were able to do a real analysis of Apples vs Oranges you would find that your VSAx was trading price action. The correct test would probably be to give them a feed with valid prices and randomized "volume" data ... and then you could be amazed that all a trader needs (even one who looks at volume) is price.

Good post Bill, I would add: To 3: The value of the pivots is that there is a population of followers so if they coincide with S&R or widely followed fibs then that population can be added to the S&R at that point. The confluence concept. Despite that I no longer have any pivots on my charts. To your indicator comments: Never forget that a price bar is also an indicator. All (?) indicators summarize information and the original intent was probably always to make trading easier so you trade some lag in the summarization for an easier life. In the case of price bars the lag is where you wait for the price bar to complete before acting on it. You may also miss important information (the swings within the bar may not be just noise). To market profile: Much of what you see in horizontal s&r is reflected in MP too but the difference in perspectives will add you your understanding. Also, MP is not based on volume although it is often used and considered in MP interpretation. The TPO is based on time and price only.

I'll add to it then. GammaJammer is correct. All forms of Volume and Tick counts on fx are bogus. They can't be anything else. Why? Because they are not a measure of volume and they are not a measure of transaction counts. If you wanted to call it Picks or Pricks or then you have a valid measure (PriceIcs instead of Transaction Ics because all they really show is that the average of the bid and ask price changed). But. And its a very big But. The Pricks are only valid for your data feed. And they are exceptionally easy to manipulate because no actual transaction is required. So, better to accept the uncertainty and just use time based charting.

Skill in mathematics (statistics, programming etc) does not in any way imply that the hard boring work of really testing things has been done. I can assure you that I have the skills but I can also assure you that my low tolerance for boredom negates them in this situation.

If you are considering ensign you should also consider SierraChart. Originally I was a tradestation user although I've used Metastock, TS, Ensign, SierraChart, IBChart, Multicharts, Ninja and probably a few I've forgotten in my explorations. I was an ensign user for about 3 months after being a SC user. After 3 months I went back to SierraChart because ensign's espl language is interpretted and very slow compared with SC, Ensign has a lot of eye candy but it tends to be buggy (SierraChart is more reliable and almost totally so if you stay use the release versions not the prerelease versions).

I agree that long trades are not yet warranted for a trend orientated trader such as myself. The trend down has not reversed by my definitions ... but continuation is no means a good bet with that many minor retracements (at least it wouldn't be in the sort of things I trade).