Kiwi

Yes peewee varies a bit. In its best months its 60% plus and in its worst it drops to 40%. Always significantly bigger wins than losses.

OK. Cool. As long as you've done the work. I used to trade STW but don't any more because ranges dropped (they might be back again now) so I switched back to hsi. Liquidity is great for any normal user. Normally its 1 tick although it will gap a little at technical points (break of prior lows say). You can get charts for it from quote.com or futuresource .. futuresource.com | Futures & Commodities Quotes Try googling TAIWAN MSCI INDEX FUTURE for more info. Also the SGX website has volume data if I recall correctly.

You might start by using the search functions on this site and researching the material already covered here. That's probably why no one wants to rewrite it all here, now.

For the record. You'll recall a few pictures of my peewee system in action. Well its been performing quite well so today I doubled my size ... and guess what ... a record 4 losing trades in a row!!! So, hopefully tomorrow, normalcy will return.

I support Brownsfan's view. I am a person who knows most indicators and has written hundreds of them for other users of Sierra Chart. What's more, unlike most who talk as though they understand indicators I think I really have a grip on how they work and what they are doing. I now would only use indicators for one purpose: to summarize information for automation that can be more clearly seen with calm, well trained, unstressed eyes and brain. They can be useful but if you head down the path of wanting to appear knowledgeable about indicators to your friends and actually be knowledgeable then be prepared to use up years of your time. And bollinger bands are such bs. They look great until they don't. I have written and dissected the Value Chart indicator (last week) and can assure you that it has NO magic - its just a comparison of 5 days movement against average bar range and declares every burst of enthusiasm to be oversold or bought. One could make it work for them but you can find plenty of other ways ... so why not KISS. Find an objective reason to exit trades (next S&R or trailing a stop for long holds with a potential trend) and just do it ... the same every time. Your goal is to learn a method to be profitable consistent trader (I assume). A private trader has a few edges over the big boys and the super machines. One is that you can buy breakouts (because your size is small so you don't have to scale in to get filled). Another is that you can see support and resistance with training - and that is very hard for a machine. So, put indicators aside. Don't argue about them. Say "I've been lucky enough to be trained by people who read price action and support and resistance alone - and are profitable because of it. So I'm sticking with that and mastering it."

OK. Here's a possibly simple question: I have a portfolio of pairs I'm looking at: AJ AU EJ EG EU GJ GU Kiwi Loony Swiss UJ How many (full not the new half) ticks would anyone opine each of these should break by before you jumped on the breakout. Similarly for stops, how much back past the last swing before you exit? Opinions on one, all, or the generic issue are welcome

Yes daedalus; although I think he would have got more value from a white 80 sma. Yes, the original post is fine. I just pulled it because, after a post breakfast swim, I wondered if it wasn't really in keeping with the thread's goals.

Sorry for mentioning indicators thales. The thread is about a particular approach to extracting the money from the market and the purer it can be kept the more successful I think it can be.

I agree with the principle of "just eyeballing price action" to discover the broad trend but there is an issue - our minds are not simple or logical. Because they are not then under emotional stress, impatience, fear, etc they will increasingly distort perception of reality. It surprises me how frequently people see something one way at trade entry (or exit) and totally differently 4 hours later. Henry Liddon was born at a time before we had the opportunity to understand how our brains really work. FWIW, I would recommend the book "Stumbling On Happiness" which isn't really about stumbling or happiness as an introduction to the traders mental tools. Prepare to be a little disappointed if you hold views such as those of the philosophers of the "character" generation. PS. I do agree with most of what you say john. I am just aware of how little control of our brains' actions we really have.

Just rereading my own post; the comment about the 3 little indians wasn't meant to take anything away from what you were posting thales ... really to add another way of seeing the same weakness displaying itself. I think its an example where the composite man is watching the market, sees it trying to go further, but failing to be convincing and the CM then goes "well what can't make it up seems destined to go down, lets jump it and see if it falls." On a vaguely serious note, being keenly aware of my love for a couple of mas, normally EMAs, here is a proposition to you. Thales, it's time you added two SMAs to your charts. They would have kept you out of that silly GBPUSD trade - long only when price is doing its stuff over the mas But, more seriously, I've been thinking about systems based on these ideas and one thing did come up that thread followers may find useful. A number of ways of dealing with the problem that occurs when T1 - Entry isn't greater than Entry - S. This initial trade is a good one IMO if you can get a T1-E that covers E-S plus slippage and costs and T1 is hit more than 66% of the time. If that occurs you get a profit factor of 2 and an expectancy of (2*.66-1*.33)/1= a dollar returned for each dollar invested. So, here is the idea: if T1 isn't far enough away then set your entry limit back from the break (so price has to retrace to hit your entry). You have to get a few extra pips to allow for the fact that every losing trade will retrace that far and a percentage of winners won't - but if you do it well then this is a valid tactic. I will add a picture to show what I mean (from the bottom zone of the above GBPUSD chart):

And I apologized for posting an indicator ... I take it back ... Prechter !!!! More seriously, the (only) good thing about Elliot wave is thinking about the complexities of wave shapes as price chops merrily along its path. Working through the potential for profit is useful. I looked at your post on a descending triangular running out of energy ... and note that the three little indians I raised the other day is very similar. As MK pointed out it is 3 small pokes forward after stronger movement - and is frequently followed by failure of the move, at least for a while.

Thanks for the pointer to the value charts. I looked it up and quite liked the logic they used to build their "oscillator." I found a ninja version of it plus a ts version and cludged up a Sierra Chart version. I think it will combine nicely with the poor automatic read of prior S&R quite well for autotrading. Here's my version (Sorry for the indicator chat Thales but for autotrading it's hard to get a good "view" of S&R).

If you're having a hard time at the moment ... realize it isn't necessarily you or the method. The markets are choppy! I've just been looking at 5m 15m 4h etc for the last 8 months while thinking about systematically extracting some dollars. And the last few weeks have not been pretty. You need a mix of trendy and choppy times to analyze how well you are going. Also beware of over-tuning your method to current markets - one of the market wizards pointed out that the markets train you to do exactly the wrong thing - so don't

In other words Trade Stations range charts are buggy. If they were properly programmed then refreshes won't result in reprints (so speaks a long time programmer of zigzag logic etc).

Three little Indians needs to be googled but its basically 3 weak probes down in a row, each going a little further, before the market gives up its testing and moves back up. Your EU chart shows it with 3 pushes at 1.49600. I think it is illustrative of the principle that "if the market doesn't make progress when it should then it will probably reverse and go the other way." I don't enter trades on it but I have always exited on it. You didn't have a valid setup when you posted the chart. Since then you have had a very tight pullback giving a valid long 45 mins to 1 hour ago on break up.

Gabe, Commiserations on thinking. Thinking leads to experimental trades and thus to losses. I am also prone to this error and when combined with boredom or frustration it is a powerful wallet emptier. Trading should be based on things we have tested repeatedly and found to have a statistical edge. As suggested, there was no 123breakout up - in fact you can see that my system picked up two 123breakouts down while you were hunting the snark. For the record I held my paper GU trade yesterday despite my 4 little indians and a later test of the bottom where it was forming higher highs and higher lows on the 15m timeframe. Lessons for me were: if trading against trend then take profits quickly; if I get 3 little indians look to get out even during asia ... wait for later proof of intent and reentry. .

The paint bars here are just to let me know when my night is so I get a better feel for how this works. The indicator in the bottom is just because I will try to automate some of this and I look at strong thrust as an indicator of strength and thus where price is likely to reject if it gets back there. Its just the sum of the 6 bar and the 13 bar highlow range divided by a long average bar range. So it tends to go high when you get a 6-10 bar strong run. A visual check is better but I'm trying to find out if the indicator is "close enough" to help with some software.

hmmmm ..... is this a message or is it just that gbp and usd are not Asia zone movers?

.............

I liked what you drew. So sim time

Thales, we seem to be getting into semantics here on the issue of filters or not. I suspect each of us has slightly different meanings in mind when we use the words. The one I like is Context because its what I see when deciding with discretion that is so much harder to program into a system. I see there being a mix of pre-trade context when saying "I'll take this" or "I won't" and post trade price behavior which might say "hold for longer" vs "scratch this trade." These seem to me to be things that can (but may not) come with time and experience and may vary a bit from market to market. They are also the things most likely to be unconscious choices in a skilled practitioner. So where am I going with this pre-breakfast ramble. I will steal from daedalus's list: Pre-entry Context Quick and clean LH/HL made near the bottom of the move (to limit initial risk and get in before most of the move may be over) (but also suggests that pressure to be in is strong vs a lot of basing or a bigger pullback so joining the move will be more urgent) Will break prior S/R (this also means longer term players will see it as a break of their S&R and will join in) Entry isn't just before a prior S/R zone or multiple S&R zones (so we don't enter into the place where price is going to probably stop anyway) (note that this can also be a cheap entry just before a longer term break ... but its a tricky call) Longer term trend Although trends bend they usually have 3 or more pushes that are longer than the retracements so if you are with the trend then the move you're grabbing is likely to be longer. Above or below a 50ema on a 4 hour chart is one measure. A good clear run to longer term S&R This is a restatement of the above but what I mean is that price tends to push from one S&R to the next so if you can see S&R that will be important longer term then you are likely to be able to ride to it (where is the next old swing on a 4 hour chart?) Risk Reward If you look at each S&R below for your short's exits and take a portion at each, what will your risk reward be? Is it good enough? Compare the EJ chart above with the GU chart; you might also note that each was countertrend by my rules but one was close to its 50ema and the other had a good long range to get back to it (the rubber band of perceived value was stretched). Post-entry Price Behaviour Strong and clean impulse move (makes it easy to stay and suggest that there is more to go unless it is fast and hard into a significant prior S&R zone, then beware). Short retracements after the break suggest that pressure to be in the down move is still strong and when they get longer pressure is abating. . Note to Gabe: Sorry, I was wrong; there is a contradiction in precise meaning and I've now used a dictionary. Coincide isn't the correct term because it means "corresponds exactly". Precede (hence resistance to the move) or Coincide/Follow (hence support for the move) would be better words for the problem version and the good version respectively. Note to Thales: Sorry for introducing an ma. I try to see where others will perceive value and how they will see trend and find that an ma is an easy cheat for doing that. Perhaps I'll get past it one day but currently it keeps me on the right side of the crowd.

It's not a contradiction really Gabe. For a short, if it breaks the 123 and is breaking prior resistance at the same time (or is slightly below it so it has broken higher timeframe resistance, pulled back to form the higher low and then breaks the 123) then this is the 1st case. You get the strength of higher timeframe players also seeing a break. In the second case the 123 might break and, less than a decent RR target below you have the longer timeframe Support. And price bounces. So reading S&R and picking for RR is important. I'll try to see a example from yesterday. Actually I have two and both are case two but one has 3 zones and it stops at each before going; the other has one zone and it breaks it like a knife through hot butter Ok. A third where S&R is a good distance away also - I'll mark the S&Rs and you can decide which is which. A close S&R zone (below your break but close) is a blessing and a curse. Because it might bounce your price it could end your trade prematurely. But because a break is likely to be a higher timeframe break it could also result in a lot of extra speed and support. What it does mean is that you need to decide ahead of time how you will react when price does XXX at the close S&R. Edit: Hmmm. I seem to be posting my opinions just after Thales. Hopefully its complimentary.

I'd say yes. And it has the benefit of being with the 4hr trend. And having dug back into resistance on 4 hour before continuing. The only downside is that it stopped at fairly serious support (from thrust out of congestion back on 10/26) before this bounce up.

Not thales view, but mine with hindsight.

LOL (at me) ... I didn't recognize the TS symbols so withdraw the "not representative of the markets" comments. Not wishing to hijack the thread on the range/tick/vol/time/exotic representation question here's my view: - except on spot forex then tick and vol can be useful for stretching out action to make recognition easier and compressing slow periods. - the concealment issue is choice as all choices conceal something (tick charts conceal slow (but maybe interesting) periods and also the volume to time relationship) IMO the choice depends on a couple of things: - what do other market participants do (so you see what the important ones see)? - what do you want to achieve? In most things I use time because the big boys use time if they use anything. So if they happen to look at an ma they see what I see with the same ma. And if they draw a trendline or a channel then these are time invariant and I see what they see. In forex the "big boys" use time if they chart at all so if you want to perceive how they are thinking about the market you should use ... But, for fast entry into a fast market I have used tick charts because they spread the action at that point and you can see the resistance test more clearly. Vol would do that too but slightly differently. I've just never felt good about range or the exotics. All just one persons views and the differences are what make the market interesting