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Kiwi

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by Kiwi

  1. I don't think so Bathrobe. Far more people come off the sim too fast (or never go on) and chew away their money. Lots of people don't sim at all (too boring, what's the point, etc etc). To me, the purposes of a sim are: - to prove that what you see in hindsight is still there in real time - to forward test a backtest - to learn some elements of what is needed to trade your plan. It doesn't have to duplicate real emotions, test yourself under monetary pressure etc etc to be a useful tool. I trade real money but I still sim things before I run them with cash. So currently I'm trading indexes (well, I've stopped for Easter) but I'm sim trading longer term Forex. Because the forex trades are infrequent, depending on the number of unexpected results the forex will go live in anywhere from two weeks to two months.
  2. The number of answers is not limited to the reasons you ask the question. That said: if you want a ma that represents perceived value for pullbacks then you want the one used by the largest number of users or largest amount of trading cash. Either way, for intraday trading then you want an exponential moving average. If it was daily, a couple of simple moving averages (like the 200) are more commonly seen on charts than any other.
  3. I don't know if you guys will like this. I sleep while the ES is active (yes!!!) so I have no experience trading it. My view is based on zones, boxes, or value areas (call them what you want). What you show above is the formation of a value area, progression down to form a new one (a down trend) a move to the upper edge of the value area and then a very minor test of the value area above. This is then rejected for a loss. If you think about these moving rotations/boxes/zones/value areas and remember that an edge test is very likely to fail either at the edge as above or half way into the value area then you might well choose not to trade a 123break that is at the edge of the value area. ??
  4. Try Traders' View of the World 2010 - Commodities - Futures Magazine I think I hit my max free looks just before I found this page. It might be the one.
  5. I like the table ochie but I doubt the results. Perhaps what TASC interpret as liquidity isn't what most of use - my one is "how easy it is to buy and sell with a low spread." So I'd agree that ED is low. But I have doubts about 3 Yr Aussie Tbonds on SFE being low compared with, say, ES which is two below. Similarly the Aussie SPI futures contract is fairly illiquid and yet it sits above GU, UJ, and EU futures. And where are the nikkei and other asian contracts? So, I'd call the table interesting but basically a dud just from the contracts I'm familiar wtih. Unfortunately I don't have anything better because I couldn't find a decent table of volumes traded daily anywhere.
  6. To my surprise I am now an Iron user (the sanitized Chrome) It still doesn't have "remove it permanently" but with a couple of the better add ons the extra speed outweighs that disadvantage and the lack of spacers in the favourites menu. If you go the Iron or Chrome way I'd recommend: - AdBlock - Chromey Calculator - Universal Search & Accelerators Have a nice weekend all. Edit: I was thinking about the lack of RIP (which lets you remove sections of pages to get the look you like without clutter) and I had another look at adblock. It has a nice feature Ctrl-Shft-K which lets you RIP your pages to some extent ... so for some websites, now the clutter has gone from Chrome too. If you remove too much then go to the adblock options and the last item is at the top of the customised removal list. .
  7. Tokyo is the city you're thinking of there but it would be interesting to know who your broker is.
  8. Yes, the argument that "FX futures are depending on the spot market" is rubbish really. Sometimes futures follows spot, sometimes the reverse. And pushing futures can be an interesting way of dragging a spot position to a place you need it to be (short term). Here's the thing: - does the market behave in ways that suit your trading style? - can you get competitive ba spreads? - can you get order rules that are open and honest? - any manipulation that will hurt you? - any trickery around news that will hurt you? So I could trade futures or forex with ib (because the forex is ecn based) but I like the scalability of forex, the half pip spreads, same costs etc etc. The interesting thing is that we now have mini-futures in response to mini and micro forex but I'm guessing the futures boys were too arrogant for too long and have lost that chunk of the market to forex. Because I trade in Asian and European hours I am well aware of the nasty slips I used to get on futures - but don't get to the same extent with ib forex. Also, the news reaction is the natural one (a short pulling of orders by most players to avoid being disadvantaged) not manipulated (like Oanda holding the news state for several minutes after the news is out (not so much manipulation as self-protection and being a bit lazy about it imo). But, as Blowfish points out, IB is a broker with a bunch of banks and the customer base forming the market (you can be the bid or ask), not a bookie/bucket shop. Edit: according to the interactive brokers website: The tight spreads and substantial liquidity are a result of combining quotation streams from 11 of the world's largest foreign exchange dealers which constitute more than two-thirds1 of the market share in the global interbank market. And the banks come from the group listed in: http://www.euromoney.com/Article/2194110/FX-poll-2009-Embattled-banks-boosted-by-performance-in-booming-FX-markets.html
  9. Actually daedelus, All the good stuff you describe with futures is also available with Interactive Brokers forex. They are not ultra high leverage and they don't do microlots, just minis but the spread on EU is half a pip (half, not one) during european/us market hours. On the others it is as good or better than futures. And there is no more pulling of orders for news with the forex than there is for c futures. Plenty of size too.
  10. GU closed last night. First target hit in down move for 92. Second part removed for 117. If we were in a trendy zone I would probably have held the second but we are between major resistance areas on daily so I'm prepared to wait to break from that before pursuing long holds.
  11. Short GU continues. Note pitchfork/channel test adjustment on be+ stop. It does have a bit of work to do to get down and hit my targets with the 21 ema being the first challenge ... but we shall see, we do at least have a slightly lower low to go with the lower high now ... very Thalesy. .
  12. Stop to be+ Why, it broke daily slightly along with the channel. I think that the rejection will either hold or it might well break strongly. So be+ and probability will do what it will.
  13. Short GU at 1.5110 Why? Downsloping channel. Break of daily required. A couple of significant fibs here. Also, more fibs + S&R to hide the stop behind up at 1.5165 Will work or not. .
  14. LOL. The Sierra Chart post was in 2007 and then we get a new poster, two and a half years late to plug another product - with two posts. Hopefully thats the last we'll hear from them.
  15. Ahhh ,,, hes just a sad old man. I should just let him alone to play his game. Enjoy yourself Urma. You aren't worth my time. It's a live and let live site - if someone wants to believe in you, the mysteries and the promises, then who am I to protect them. They'll believe in The Secret so why should I try to stop people believing in the secret. It's the internet. I declare myself off the Urma hunt. If there weren't fools out there then where would the money come from? Have a very pleasant Saturday America and Europe :beer:
  16. Pretentious and prat go together so well don't they? Like merchant and banker Condescending and twxt? Enough poetry ... he can't help himself creating an imaginary world where he lives above the plebs. An aristocrat of the industry. Worshiped by thousands. Wow. He's such a man. Shell128, The likes of this one don't go away. Well he left a couple of other boards where he was recognized for what he was and chased off. But we're just gently playing with him here so he'll stay here. You will note however that everything he "offers" is a variation on the same stuff. Just an ego game at the expense of newbies.
  17. Actually, as amusing as this sort of proposal always is, and as amusing as it is that gururu agrees with it - these ideas actually don't work. Once you remove spread and execution costs from it the experiment falls into a financial hole. The only people who can make it work are on the other side of the equation in bucket shops and even they are careful about covering their risks. The issue with newbies isn't stochs or macds or urmablumesuperindicators: it's that the rest of their trading isn't up to scratch. Otherwise all of the turtles would have been super winners and even Mike Covlll would be able to trade.
  18. You are right James, asking for real time is asking too much. It was unfair and I should give UB some credit for the entertainment value. I liked his bunch of secret quants who come here, browse, never post and then go back to the magic cave to work for him.
  19. Correct MK. UB comes across as another indicator seller. He even uses an old sales technique implying that the clothes are too good for his audience. And yet he never gives real time examples. Or any other way of verifying them. And he has a secret cabal of the cognoscenti who visit here, read the posts, and quietly laugh before going back to the secret chocolate factory. An alternative view might be that he's a condescending old bore living in a fantasy world and trying to ameliorate his boredom here. Surely that couldn't be true. I'm certain that hes a warm wonderful human being who's just sharing with us poor folk.
  20. Actually its a series of sloping lines (from point to point to point) ... I map slower to faster (or used to) and when the ratios were around 5 the discrete steps weren't particularly noticeable.
  21. :doh: It was time for a cooling bath
  22. Long GU ... but its still going down .. a lesson in humility could be coming here. .
  23. I found EFT style tapping to be very good for fear of heights when I went up the Eiffel Tower. But I too am not convinced that its all that effective with trading. The issue is that it can reduce the emotional impact but doesn't address the thoughts or actions that create it. Perhaps if targeted well or teamed with a cognitive approach?
  24. So price seemed to respect hourly channels and the daily form for an abc/double followed. Consolidation on Monday anyone? .
  25. Still long GU. After entering this morning I realized I had been hasty ...more testing was appropriate (so I should have entered lower, but this is a learning experience). So I decided that the stop was low enough and I'd stick with it and see what it did. I also raised the targets as I think the daily is telling a more important story (where it should test). .
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