Phil Mibbutz

Being an eternal optimist: Dow, 9999.99 SP, 1046 Nas, 2158

More weirdness today!

I found this post on "Re: All You Need... is a Chart" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month January, 2009"

Got that bit right. Just a pity about the timing...

Yes, it's a nightmare out there, but when/if there's a bounce, it could be ginormous. I think the Plunge Protection squad (if they exist), will be be putting all their efforts into keeping the US market afloat today. There must be some money left, somewhere!

IS that Plato or Aristotle?

As always, it depends on your style of trading, but in my case not trying to max out every move, a) reduces stress, and b) gives me more time to look for another trade that may have a better risk/reward factor, and/or do something else.

No-one really wants to see a move continue after they've exited, but equally, no-one can ever hope to maximise the potential gain from every trade. After many years, I reached the stage of not caring too much, and accepting that taking a profit isn't a failure.

Call me a wimp, but I've given up on bigger targets now, although sometimes a trailed stop on part of a position will keep going and give far more points than expected. btw, on the round number theme, take a look at how many times the Dow bounced off 11000 on yesterday's chart!

Notice it also bounced off exactly 11000 on the way down. Both would have been worth about 20 points in a few minutes.

... High 998.2, now off that 35pt.

Let's see if the Dow meets any resistance at 11000, then!

Again, it depends on TF, but the same goes for 'technical' support and resistance levels, which are easy to draw on charts with hindsight, yet often fail when projected forward. All IMO, DYOR, WTFDIK, etc!

As always, whether it matters much depends on the TF traded, but I think round numbers often act as S/R levels, partly because of the psychological effect, partly because orders are often set there. Once the round number barrier gives way, you get a bigger move.

Good idea, FW. I'd virtually given up posting trades recently, partly because there didn't seem to be anyone else around.

Yes, they generally all go up and down in synch, but the waves have different shapes and charactersitics, I reckon. Buffett has already made himself even richer, so why can't he fund the Fed!?

I think each index has its own characteristic 'resonant frequency' and price action. After a long time spent watching charts form, you can learn to interpret (or think you can!) what's going on. re. today's move, isn't the rise just because there are plenty of people hoping the Fed plan will go through, prompting another huge spike?

So that's two of us who aren't rich, FW Today's US market movements certainly didn't make any sense to me. Manipulated up and down, you'd think.

Maybe 'Welfare for the rich' does make sense. Probably does if you're rich, anyway.

Unless someone in the US says something that makes sense (unlikely), the Dow's going to be back at 10,700, even if we get a bit of a retrace first.

Agree with most of that, Wasp, but I think Fibs and longer-term EMAs can be useful. The more lines coinciding, the more important the level, I reckon. Having said that, I gave up on FX a while ago, so my theories/delusions only apply to index trading.

11300-ish is certainly a key level. Tend to think it'll hit 350 before going down much, though.

A loss of liquidity will be the main effect, IMO. They're really shooting themself in the foot and making everything worse, while avoiding the root cause of the crisis. PS. Glad someone else remembers Yazoo, that well known pump-and-dump merchant.

-250 on YM is hardly a catastrophe these days, Wasp. Better widen that to -1000!

It's even sillier in America, where they are apprently going to have a sort of Naughty Bank to cancel bad debts. Talk about moving the deckchairs on the Titanic!