JT1

I would strongly suspect extreme market manipulation if it did. It certainly wouldn't reflect the real-term value of the underlying companies, or the strength of the economy. Do you mean 2000 or 20,000. You include both numbers :doh::haha:

Thanks ST. I wonder if wer are likely to see some spot forex brokers will try widening the spreads, eg. saying that it is no longer feasible to offer a 2 pip eurusd spread, IF the current level of thin liquidity/volatility continues?

Dam! this forum is quiet!

Hi i dont know about anyone else, but i love this volatility. EURUSD is moving 40-50 pips in a matter of minutes/seconds. Today has seen a 400 pip downwards spiral. EURUSD is behaving like cable used to before the volatility came about, and obviously this presents better profit potential. I put this volatility down to the fact that due to the credit crunch, there are less interbank participants with less cash to splash, leading to less volume in the market, and as a result, the liquidity is thin, and price moves quickly. Whereas a few months ago, before the crunch, the ranges were tighter, price movements were slower and smaller, due to the bigger volume/deeper liquidity & a greater number of interbank participants moving foreign exchange prices. Assuming my theory is at least partially correct.....My question is - Is this increased volatility likely to extend for some time yet, as the recession mounts & continues? Can we look forward to recent standards of volatity becoming the norm during the recession, & thus for the forseeable future? Cheers.

Jesus lighten up guys - no hidden meaning at all. I never even thought about bees & wasps tbh - was just wanting a good simile - bees didnt quite work thought. Point is the top spot is infectious - the member in it attracts is more likely to attract more & more good post reps in the hope that they will return the favour. If a member never ereturned rep, they have alot less given to them also i bet. Maybe this shows what i meant - "When ze seagullls follow ze trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into ze sea!"

I never said they were. I was talking generally.

To reach & maintain no1 - a member needs to form a network of pip buddies. This is a mutually beneficial relationship, selfless & all serving. Much alike bees, continually working for & servicing one another, with pips.

I see the value of it not being private for the reasons you outline, FW.

100% focused on the job in hand - trading....(during my normal trading hours).

Porn? damn - i missed that discussion! This last week has been very much a case of confirming that the new plan works & letting it all settle into my brain. Dipping in & out of a volatile but predominantly orderly market, & sim trading when in doubt. It went well. Come monday morning i will have deleted most websites from my favourites list, and have a pledge which is to be 100% focused on the job in hand - trading.

I agree. Especially if posting charts etc. The trick for me i think is to become a robot like being, and just have a chart open, broker tab open & a tab for the economic calendar and nothing more (during trading hours).

Have fun wasp/slbf with your time off. Good news is i have my gold star at the other place now, so have no reason to continue to post inane dribble or reward pip buddies. lol. only reason i web surf when trading is like a distraction/escape from a bit of boredom & nervousness. it has to stop though.

Yesterday was a good day for me. EU dropped 300 pips, i hadn't really noticed how far it had dropped as i was engrossed in milking it - up and down. Also, i didn't really care why it had dropped, just as long as it was moving and i could trade it. It wasn't till late afternoon that i read the Meryll Lynch etc. headlines. Besides the standard news release times, I feel pretty secure in trading what is tradeable, despite what may be going on. I now just need to ban myself from all internet distractions during the session, so as not to miss opportunities/make errors.

..........

Also, hourly alarm calls are probably not the healthiest of things that can be done. Creating stress, shock, panic, confusion, mental bluntness and high blood pressure etc. If it were me, just after I'd fallen off to sleep, the alarm would probably be going off again.

True. (It was the daily chart i posted btw). But i just got a bit confused as to the order in which i applied the S/R lines from start to finish etc. and once applied, as seen as they run the entire screen length it was near impossible for me to be sure the point i marked them from etc. etc. It just all became a bit confused, after the fact, and so I've scrapped it, for now.

I only supplied the link to show where i got the one quote from that i was quoting (and endorse), was not endorsing any of the other quotes.

http://www.rookiedaytrader.com/classic_rules.asp

Please ignore these 2 charts, or at least don't take them as being wholly realistic. I realised that i hadn't applied all the (what i saw as relevent) S/R lines in the right order - from the beginning to the end (1992-2008). Also, these lines paid no attention to whether or not these levels were still relevent later on, or had they been surpassed, with the new S/R levels moving on as a result. Therefore postive results may just be a coincidence that the lines were in the right place at the right time, and price acted in their favour, though not necessarily for a reason - eg. an S/R line begun in 1995 that has been broken up & down several times, today causing a reversal and profitable trade. This would have to be put down to chance/good luck, and for me shows no logic in terms of having kept that 1995 line on the daily chart until now.

One thing that strikes me about only keeping relevent S/R on a chart is - Because S/R levels are always changing slghtly, doesn't this essentially mean that the only lines you should be keeping on a chart are the unhit lower highs in a downtrend, and the unhit higher lows in an uptrend? Because any other former S/R levels will already have been breached, and thus no longer relevant as S/R has moved on?

Fewer, still relevent S/R lines like you posted a few posts back, will certainly make things less congested. As you said, HMA's, and your trendline/s would have scooped the lot today :crap: But you weren't to know it would be an 800 pipper! But HMA's/trendlines could also have seen +100 retreat to 0, as could the S/R lines alone. So there's no easy answer, without a crystal ball. But i agree that being sure that all S/R lines present, are STILL relevent reasons to consider SARing is important. This would have decreased your losses today.

Yep. Sorry bud. But like you said, an S/R line + or - 1 pip in a different place can see you miss the win and hit a loss, or vice-versa. No-ones fault really, it just happens. I don't mind knowing/thinking there is a bit of random luck involved in the outcome of trades. That way i am inclined to take it less personally when i lose. As long as the method/logic/reason for entering was sound, its just a matter of working the averages in your favour.

it is a shortcoming in a plan that is looking to pin-point reversals, but when a nice big fat juicy trend arrives, not only is it capable of missing the trend, but can also lose by trying to fight/reverse the trend. THE PLAN does not like strong trends, especially if you have plenty of S/R lines in place that the trend is running into, which (if), like today have been of no significance on H4 GJ. But as said, this is due to identifying areas of S/R that did not act as such. However, this is no simple excuse. As GJ pointed out, past areas of major S/R that seem important can be passed through in a hurry, and past minor S/R can then become significant. Therefore identifying areas of S/R that will or will not be significant is not an exact science & does require some luck.

Well I've slightly modified the chart, changing a few trades, replacing the arrows with simpler ticks & crosses (wins & losses), and looked back over the last 119 days, which is 45 trades. I feel the walkthrough simulation is fair and not cherry picked. With a 150p max sl, there were 15 losers, 27 wins, and three trades that would have benefitted from a BESL or TSL from +160-+272p The overall net profit being +5130 pips. So not bad i think, as the method/rules/logic are consistent and make sense. This 5.5 month period shos a mixture of chop ad trend, mainly chop i would suggest. As wasp mentioned earlier, the problem with this S/R SAR method is the possibility of messing up the trend - i.e. trying to SAR on a rejection of a S/R level, only to see price/trend continue to move against you. PS. All my S/R lines were drawn using the open/close of the candle (the body). PS2. If you ignore all my pointing label lines, its not all that complicated! Milod eye strain only!

I've had a go at what i think wasp is looking out for with the S/R, but on the daily GJ chart, with one trade max. per day/candle. I've added S/R lines where price reacted back to about 1992. Entries are based on a rejection of/reaction from an S/R line. Entries are also based on if the open was closer to the line above or the line below. The candles with magenta arrows only, represent entries that should/could have made profit. The candles with crosses and RED arrows represent taken trades that i think would have resulted in a loss. The arrow shows the direction that the trade was in. The trade entry arrows are placed as close as possible to the S/R line used to determine the entry. Some trades go into a decent profit, then back to zero on a later candle, but what can you do, without a trailing SL. The chart is fairly busy with 36 trades in 5.5 months. Maybe a few too many trades? I hope its not too confusing! What do you guys think of this. Am i getting the right sort of idea? Cheers.