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GammaJammer
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Everything posted by GammaJammer
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Surely that depends on exactly WHAT is coming out of it. When it was active,what sort of info were you hearing? I have no particular desire to try and get the NFP number a second quicker than I could get it on my bloomberg, I am more interested in quality information. Feedback appreciatded. GJ
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Actually only came on to my radar yesterday, but figured would let the RBA have their say first. Want to wait for confirmation from the price action yet. Technically AUD still pretty bid - may be a further shakeout to the topside yet in both AUD/USD and AUD/NZD (another crowded trade right now). Thus my preference for playing it through options - slightly more forgiving on timing. And using it in conjunction with the VIX move means you can probably play it for vol rather than direction (i.e. job your gamma). Which is why I was also looking at correlations last night. GJ
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Was he talking about the use of non-parametric over parametric measures? Haven't read the quote in question (I don't think, anyway). lol - your words mate, not ours..... GJ
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Well one could say that about most (some people would even say all) indicators surely? GJ
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Well what Jocelyn is talking about certainly makes sense to me in current market conditions - plays into your hands if a lot of people are stopping themselves out when moves fail to continue - false breaks are absolutely killing a few people out there these days. Not so sure about jobbing into a breakout that way myself, although that's not to say it can't work. Something to look at. Back to looking at correlations now until I go home. Figured AUDCHF / VIX would be a bit higher than it is. But stil people are starting to talk about it (VIX) now, and I have a feeling there's a chunky move not too far away. But first gotta step away and get myself a drink and stop staring at the screen for 5 mins as my eyes are actually starting to water. Not good GJ
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Well if any salesperson I deal with started a price request to me with 'excuse me my good man' I'd be hard pressed not to
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Can't fault your logic. I am however an inveterate contrarian for a start, so that does tend to colour my view (sometimes for better, sometimes for worse). In any case, having thought about it, AUD/CHF seemed a better way to play it. But totally agree with you still about the need for constructive price action before you jump in. Otherwise, who the hell cares in this market that you sudenly said that you have this view or that view. I'm not gonna send out a reccomendation and it's suddenly gonna be a talking point across London and NY There are people out there like that (Medley, FX Concepts, CitiTechs etc etc) but I'm sure as sh*t not one of 'em. GJ
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Well real money would likely be buying dollars at the lows and selling at the highs today. Sort of day when they're more likely to be re-balancing than adjusting genuine alpha positions imho. And as the US pension funds are dominant, that means they're likely a good chunk of the dollar buying this morning. That said, there were some overlay players out there on the break above 00 in eurusd I hear, just not in numbers. GJ
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Thanks - options related, and a reminder to me of a painful lesson I learned in my early days on a spot desk. Namely, sometimes the best advice is 'Don't think, just trade!'
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EUR/JPY price action (or lack of it) pretty unusual given the moves in the greenback against all majors. Sure it's been a model driven, dollar denominated start to NY trading and the week, but still, there's usually a cross play in there when the dollar's moving around, even if it's just 50 points up and down. No-one told EUR/CHF it's just a dollar move for example. A few dollar sellers are starting to emerge at these levels right now (1.5500/10 eur/usd, 1.0540/50 usd/chf). I'm wondering if EUR/AUD long from here (ard 1.6290) might be an interesting shout. Any thoughts? GJ
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And of course the further you step off the (G3 / G7) beaten path, the more beholden you are to your supply of decent flow information that isn't always easy to come by. I personally don't always know what local bond traders in Poland are up to. Yet they and other similar players often are key drivers of the zloty on an intraday basis. Just an example, but hopefully you get my drift. Not a reason not to trade E.M. currencies, but you just need to know what you're doing (and maybe have larger pockets on occasion). My $0.02 GJ
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http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/28/business/hedge.php Just found this.... Also saw a very interesting piece about the perilous state of the US airline industry on iTuplip Forums (a macroeconomic / econometric forum that I dip into occasionally) but I didn't manage to sucessfully e-mail it to myself. If I can get time I'll post the text or something. Crux of the post is that their planes are all too big for the internaland they're all in deep doggy doo doo. Nothing controversial, but the level of detail it's written in suggests pretty clearly it's written by someone in the know. Possibly a plane spotter Ultimately SW's hedges won't mean so much if oil cracks on towards $200, but interesting nevertheless. GJ
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Can start with a few Essex Barrow Boy type phrases if you like English: Excuse me my good man - can you please sell ten million US dollars against the Swedish Krona for me, sir. Currency Trader: OI - DOLLAR STOCKIE - TEN YOURS SHAIIIIIG. That help a bit? GJ
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Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
GammaJammer replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
It's certainly an option, but those who know me would tell you that's so not what I'm about. If people want to read my blog then cool. If they don't then also cool. I have no interest in publicising it, and if I'm totally honest it's primary function is to get me to marshal my thoughts occasionally. I thought for years about doing something like a blog, before such a thing existed online. But I'm too busy / too lazy to do it unless the technology makes it really easy. So now it is, and I'll put up my thoughts as and when I get the time. Unfortunately, that isn't every day, so if anyone's hoping to follow my train of thought then I think they're gonna be disappointed - it's gonna seem a bit disjointed I reckon. Or maybe not - maybe I'll surprise even myself. GJ -
Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
GammaJammer replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
Well predictably the fault lay with moi. Not as if I spend all day with technology or anything. A 30 second trip to a page handily entitled 'blog control panel' revealed the fact that I hadn't permissioned anyone at all to view it. SHould be fixed now. Everyone bar my ignore list can view, contacts can leave comments. If someone could confirm that they can see my rubbish scribblings now it would be appreciated. Once I know it's working I may well write a bit more. Thanks for the heads up guys and gals GJ -
Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
GammaJammer replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
Well I definitely wrote something on Friday, so where has it gone? Hmmm - will do some digging. Certainly not my intention to make my blog available only to premium members (although I have a feelign most of what I write will be of interest to only a vrey narrow selection of of people anyway, many / most of whom would potentially be residing in the premium area I'd have thought). Anyway, better go and find that missing blog GJ -
Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
GammaJammer replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
Went for a blog in the end. As much because I've not tried one yet as anything. And like you say, at least that way I have some control (not that it seems like I'll really need much on this forum compared to others). Just my vague mutterings - sometimes I'll be specific on trading levels, sometimes not. Sometimes just my thoughts on market conditions etc. Kind of a cathartic thing or an excercise in marshalling my thoughts, call it what you will. Can't promis it'll be any good, but what the hell. GJ -
Question to the Mods - Thyread Placement
GammaJammer replied to GammaJammer's topic in Announcements and Support
I'm easy. where would you prefer? -
Data Mining with R and Rapidminer
GammaJammer replied to darthtrader's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
ok - new to data mining (although not new to the concept, or to the markets). Is there anything online you can reccomend for me if I'm lookign to really start from scratch. Can program in VBA so I'm sure I could get my head round the code if I try. Any / all answers appreciated. Have a tactical relative value trading product here which I am spearheading (in between doing a grillion other things as per usual), so might be getting involved in this a bit. Been looking at all sorts of options. FX engines etc etc. But while there are plenty of pruducts out there to backtest stuff for you if you are specific enough, ultimately what I really think I have to do is do the data mining myself. And for both cost and time reasons I'm thinking it might be easiest to actually do it myself (or at least, supervise while ony of our jnr traders does the grunt work) than pay for an engineer to come in and do it (especially as I'm not 100% sure what I'm looking for, just have a few ideas I want to look at right now and thats never an efficient use of outside IT type people in my experience). Sorry this post is a bit rambling - busy afternoon on the desk so I keep coming back and adding a bit GJ -
If I have short term (i.e. intraday) market comments (and I'm NOT talking about live trading calls here, just kind of a rolling, blog / stream of consciousness type thing) where would you like me to put em. Should I start a blog? (do we have such a thing here?). Or you guys want a thread somewhere (and if so, where do you want it)? Happy to try and comply with the general tone of the site. GJ
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All getting a bit like the Norwegian 'Binaryship' where amateur footy teams take on the entire personas of their favourite English Premier League teams - there will be a Norwegian 'Man Utd', 'Chelsea' etc. But even more than that, the players take on the persona of a certain player each. So there will be someone trying to emulate Frank lampard's role in that team, or Cristiano Ronaldo's etc. A Norwegian guy told me this about 12 years ago - no idea if it's still around. GJ
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blimey - that didn't take long
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Just meaning that most people have a finite monetary resource pool (even at bigger shops, but especially on the retail side). Plus sometimes imho the mere fact that the trade hasn't gone your way quickly can, depending on your reasons for the position, invalidate your reasons for being in it in the first place. I've sometimes used them to good effect, and sometimes I've taken myself out of possies only to be proved right a bit later, so just wondering if other people here have thoughts on them. edit: of course, when I say 'quickly gone your way' it is of course all relative. I'm not talking minutes here necessarily.
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No-one on these types of boards seems to use tradermade. I know a fair few pros I speak to like it. I like ProRealtime myself, but as I'm so old school, I find that for anything really flash I use my bloomberg (reluctantly), otherwise I actually use Netdania perfectly happily. If they stop making it free to use then I can always go elsewhere, but for now it does what I need. If I get to the point where I need stuff it doesn't offer imho that means I'm over complicating things. GJ
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Interested in who uses time based stops as part of their money management discipline (seems the logical place to incorporate it as there is of course an opportunity cost of tying your funds up assuming you have some constraints on your risk budget) GJ