GammaJammer

Where you get that stat Wasp? There isn't another BIS survey due out yet is there? (incidentally instinctively it does sound about right-ish though) GJ

Due to the way it is generated, tick volume is useless as a proxy for true FX market volume. I think I've put stuff up about this here before (or possibly over on T2W). Will try and dig up a link or two as it's a lot of typing. edit http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/130/the-lounge-3862-7.html#post38090 here you go - thats one anyway. I think the more detailed stuff was over on T2W GJ

Just imagine her face when you were busy throwing the tennis ball for her. Picture it looking up at you, eyes bright, tail wagging, raring to go. I think it doesn't take a genius to know her thoughts at that point. They would have gone something "like this person not only feeds me but throws stuff as well. Truly my best friend.". That's all you really need to know imho.

I'm really sorry to hear that Brownsfan. I've had dogs all my life, and have therefore seen a few come and go and know it's really painful. But once that subsides a bit, I'm sure you will come to realise two things; i) The pain you feel now is worth it for the 13 years of joy and laughter you and patch had before. And any dog with an owner like you will have had their life greatly enriched as a result, and that can only be a good thing. ii) There is, therefore, somewhere, another dog that would really appreciate that kind of chance in it's life. Maybe it's a puppy, maybe a rescue dog, who knows? But I'm sure Patch wouldn't want you to deny yourself the pleasure of ever having a companion like that again. Dogs aren't like that are they? So I hope you find another dog soon imho. Not a replacement, just the next companion Good luck GJ

Outstanding GJ

Panthers fan for what it's worth. Hey - I just dig on pain GJ

Ok - a concept that has helped me with my trading. How about the fact that when trading breakouts one should not trade ones full position size on the initial break. Rather, trade for maybe 50% of ones size straight away, and wait fot the trade to go away, retrace, and confirm your level as support or resistance. THEN increase size. In general, scaling in / out of positions is better than just having an all or nothing strategy as it's far easier to be right about direction than timing. That the sort of thing you're talking about? GJ

Don't even have to open it to know what it is - have seen before. But on the flipside of the coin, these boards are full of people happy to admit they are 'scalpers' which translates in FX as latency arbers, trying to hit wrong prices. So I have little sympathy to be honest. Just better to deal with the situation as it actually is. My $0.02 GJ

Well I would just ask them where the pricing comes from, and if it's downstream from an ecn, whether it's 100% support pricing or some genuine interest? Wouldn't ask them 'is it transparent?' because frankly what are they gonna say? And what does that question even mean? It's not rocket science this stuff, but it does kind of require a little bit of market knowledge that isn't generally available to retail players, however sophisticated. I try and help where I can but I'm pretty busy with various bits and pieces and can't always guarantee I have the time to write chapter and verse on it. Sorry. GJ

Good luck - they may be a genuine ECN aggregator for all I know, but even if they are, it doesn't mean that the prices they / the end user can see from a given ECN are necessarily genuine interest. The big banks all stream support prices to the major ecns, and those support prices are by their nature algorithmically generated. So if a bank gets hit on their price on one ecn they may well back away from that price on others. So it can on occasion all be a bit 'smoke and mirrors' when you're looking at this type of thing. Especially if this support pricing is all you are getting through currenex. I know there are a few options for what to pass on etc. But it may still make more sense than an SB booky - at least the bank prices are arbable by the larger AI players, so they should usually stay reasonably neutral. Just don't think it's the holy grail because few things ever are..... GJ

I doubt MBT have 'good access to these interbank networks' as that isn't even a hugely meaningful sentence to be honest. I had a look at their website and they are pretty opaque as to where there liquidity is sourced. I have a feeling it's a network of streamed support pricing (maybe via a hidden currenex interface or something) with a smattering of real interest. But I could be wrong on that of course. If I'm right though, it means it will function more like an SB booky than you would maybe wish. Comission seems pretty high too, especially if I'm right about the nature of their platform GJ

Exactly right. And tbh it is appropriate. Your P+L should reflect the price at which you could realise your gains / losses right now. So for a platform like most retail ones, where you always have to cross the spread to get in or out, the appropriate rate to mark a short position against is the current offer (and vice versa). Doesn't mean all platforms do this (I have a sneaky feeling CMC SB doesn't for example) but it represents a worst case, and therefoer surely isn't a bad thing to have. PM me if you need any further help. Will do my best. GJ

Anyway - front end G7 vols......... Hope everyone's doing ok this afternoon. I am physically and emotionally drained GJ

That's actually bringing a tear to my eye.

Small change to the blog section - 'recent comments' changed to 'recent comment threads'. So that if for example one blog attracts 20 comments back and forth (i.e. becomes a dialog) it doesn't blot out all the other blogs that might have comments. if there were little + and - signs to expand / contract these that would be ideal, but what we have now tends to become a bit single blog centric when one is attracting attention.

I personally think Tess was prtty abrupt, but then again so is the market And she's 100% right in saying that a thick skin is needed to take the knocks. But fwiw Art's answer was imho the better talking point. GJ

Couple of points to remember 1) The carry trade (in terms of benefitting from the interest differentials) requires that you be long carry. As such, you are also hoping that any movement in the FX rate will not totally wipe out what you gain from the carry. That is also why it turned into a virtuous circle in the last few years. Investors were getting positive carry AND the rate was moving in their favour. As close to a market no-brainer as you're likely to get these days. 2) That era seems to be over for the the time being. Long Carry, particularly AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY were hugely crowded, very high conviction trades prior to this time last year, and that is why, when the subprime crisis started to really bite (and spread) they saw such sharp corrections (too many fat people trying to fit through a very small doorway). 3) The retail crowd (including the famous 'Japanese Housewives' were just as caught up in this as anyone. 4) To make carry work for you on a retail platform you also need to remember that the spread between bid and offer on the interest rates is larger than that which the wholesale players are working on. As you are talking about the rate that you can get for depositing the long (i.e. 'carry') currency (the bid in other words) against your borrowing cost in the short (i.e. 'funding') currency, this wider spread situation isn't a minor annoyance - depending on your broker it can be huge. Even the difference in some marginal cases between a positive carry situation and a negative one. In fact, with wide enough spreads and two currencies that are close enough together in interest rate you can easily be in a situation whereby you are negative carry no matter whether you are long OR short the pair. In a word, Ouch! 5) If you're thinking of trying to do this across two brokers (to arb their MM rates) you need to be sure there's no cost to transfer funds across all the time back and forth, as, unless you're very highly capitalised, that's what you're likely to be doing. As I said, just a few things to think about. And by no means all you need to know before wading into the carry trade.

My morning list (no real order, just stuff I normally would prefer to be aware of).... O/N developments - price action, tech levels, fundamentals Upcoming Data Order Book (mine and others - where are all the stops likely to be etc) Market Positioning Options Expiries (NY cut only realistically, unless there's something ginormous and well publicised for the TKYO cut) Fixing Rmrs / M+A stuff etc Other seasonal / struuctural stuff (e.g. specific passive equity related month end fixings, Uridashi issuance / redemtions, MSCI re-weightings that kinda thing) Rumours / Geopolitics Desk related stuff (options expiries, whether or not all the toys are working when I sit down, that kinda thing). Holidays (both current and upcoming in next say 48 hours) I'm sure I've missed a bunch of stuff off here, but thought would throw something brief together to illustrate what the wholesale person would typically look at. GJ

Wow - tough room again Had few days away but came back and looks like Trichet caught more than a few people on the hop last week. Nice.

I actually think this is a pretty good facility (assuming it doesn't get too onerous for admins). With the caveat that if someone keeps getting banned from threads I guess better to just boot them off altogether.

Not necessarily always lethargic in pure price action terms, sometimes it works that way, sometimes you get poor liquidity and therefore some strange intraday moves. But definitely less people about.

Really feels like summer markets right now.....

Oops - that's their baby as well - they're very proud of the AES stable of products. Wonder if that's gonna have any impact.....

Personally I'm not sure I'd be comfortable trading like that, and definitely sure I wouldn't trade GBP/CHF like that. No way I have the cojones

GBPCHF post the retail sales figures has been on an absolute tear. It is in no way a technical story, but glad you managed to hop on board, however that came about Paul. GJ