firewalker

Thanks for contributing here. But you mention intraday trading, yet you post a 30-minute chart of the last couple of days... Anyway, you seem to be comparing volume from different days. I've often found it difficult to do so, because Fridays and pre-holiday days for example sometimes have a tendency to 'drift' on lower volume. Unless I'm taking into account the daily picture, it seems difficult to reconcile the overnight/premarket action with any possible pattern that comes up. You just ignore it then? Setting that aside, it looks a rather late entry, comparing what Wyckoff tells about entering on the selling climax and adding on the re-test... If this was an intraday chart, I would consider the earlier rise in volume (green dot) as another possible entry signal. Followed by a "no supply" bar on very low volume with no effect, after which price rises on increasing volume.

You think THAT was crap? You are clearly not familiar with T2W. (it was a joke btw)

This is how I see it. Haven't gone through the whole thread yet, but I suspect similar charts have been posted before. Big hinge formed in January/February, which broke out to the downside. The midpoint of the hinge seems to be the starting point of a move up. Since the March low we haven't really seen anything other than higher highs and higher lows. The red supply would indicate than price isn't even overbought. And, as illustrated in your post, the demand line has taken a steeper angle. I'm not sure what all of this means 'in the big picture' but I can't deny the fact that (a) the bulls have regained two thirds of the move down in a relatively short period and (b) the March low looks like a re-test of the selling climax in January, and © the downtrend line is broken. :hmpf: The blue rectangle is where I expected some sort of pause, and in fact I believed the upthrust two days ago to be a sign of rejection. That's why the U-turn yesterday came as a relative surprise and got me trading on the wrong side. Whenever a nice trending day presents itself, I suspect the next day to be more of a ranging one and am cautious about intraday reversals. Lately however, it seems there's only one way of catching the whole range, and that's by leaving at least something of your position on till the end of the day. Yesterday was pretty straightforward imo, if you got the right entry from the start that is... Red dot is short entry(*). Price started off in the right direction, but paused immediately. The congestion led to a change in the demand/supply equilibrium, on which price reversed and I stopped myself out for a small loss. I'm still wary of SAR, so I stood aside and waited for a later entry but I don't like taking trades late in the day. I also had +/- 1990 as support. I've circled a setup from my early days. Upthrust (or a shooting star in candlestick analysis) at potential resistance. High volume too, if you plot it. Doesn't this constitute as a short signal as per VSA? Anyway, demandline not broken, so it's a lower probability trade. ______ (*) My actual entry was on the YM, but the principle is the same, I used an NQ chart because that's the instrument you trade.

This post would probably be a good starting point: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34205-post1.html Several documents are attached to the post, one of his books too.

This post would probably be a good starting point: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34205-post1.html Several documents are attached to the post, one of his books too.

We have? Correction: I have? :o

I sure brought some people over, but Socrates wasn't one of them. Me is not guilty!

That's not a reason to close or enter a trade! :crap:

:shrug: there are no real traders anymore. who do it for the love of the studying the chart!

I remember February last year, at a certain point the daily range contracted to around 10 points on the NQ. On some days even less than that. But that was before the correction. Nevertheless amazing to see 40-50 point days. Contraction and expansion in volatility is normal I suppose, but the sudden increase in trend days seems odd. Not that I care a lot about the underlying reasons, but did Wyckoff or anybody else have something to say about this? I believe Steenbarger wrote something about it too in his blog recently... Btw, do you still use the daily range as a potential warning signal the intraday move has exhausted? Had a look at your blog and I did notice some new elements (TICK for example)... a lot of new material to digest, that's for sure.

nice one postman. Right in and profit straight away Another one-way day, like I figured. Unfortunately, I also thought entering so late in the day wasn't worth the risk. Guess what. Price at 13000 now.

I'll make sure the fanfare is coming! Seriously, who will I talk dirty to then? :o

You within a month you'll stop posting? :shocked:

Welcome aboard! Get yourself a decent avatar too

Because I hardly ever exit my position all at once, no... I scale out for example at next support level, than later if the trendline breaks or if price fails to make a lower low in a downtrend or a higher high in an uptrend. But when I take some off at the next support level, I don't expect price to reverse. Sometimes, it pauses, continues to plunge. Other times, it pauses and does nothing. Yes sometimes, it pauses and reverses, on which I might think of taking a trade in the other direction, but that depends on how much time is left. Often I'm in a trade for several hours, which - being an intraday trader - kind of leaves not much opportunity to exit and reverse...

The topic of this thread seems to encompass a broad range of interesting elements. Brownsfan, as you're the "resident Candlestick guy", would candlestick analysis tell you to take the upthrust on the NQ as a short signal? It was on decent volume and into previous support (context). Seemed pretty good to me, but I'm not an EOD trader. Intermediate trend still up though. Has anybody else observed that there seem to be a whole lot more of "one-way days" then before? Or is it just my perception?

You are in 99% of the time? :shocked: Strange, I figured you were drunk a lot more than 1% of the time :o Remarkable. Have contemplated these things too, but when in whipsaw these things can cause a lot of pain... For me an exit doesn't constitute an entry. Besides, I prefer to quit after one or two trades nowadays... but each to their own. Interesting though.

This is too choppy now anyway...

Perhaps you should also start a blog... describing in it what you feel when you're in a trade, or waiting for a trade... Oh and btw, I guess we should probably discuss this in the "off topic" thread and not here. My fault as well! Fwiw, I would not short here, if I was still in a long, I would wait for 980.

I don't know if this is the right word ('preclusion') but I've often realized that - when thinking of taking a trade - one should think if he would reverse if he were in a position. Usually helps in taking counter-trend trades which don't offer the necessary potential to warrant the risk.

Considering how many points you normally average on the DAX, I think you owed yourself a break (and a beer!)

Actually, I'm hoping to improve here. My main problem is having a bias. Yesterday I had a long bias, which prevented me from taking shorts, which was correct. Today I had short bias but price came back and actually made a higher low and not much selling volume. I was too focused on pinpointing my short that I didn't realize this at the time, until it was too late. Sorry, this is probably stuff for my blog, but I thought I'd let you know so you get some insight in my psyche :\

after waiting so long I just closed it for zip! what a day! twice the effort, but not half the result of yesterday :/

I think you should only take your eye of a trade, once you already took some profits and have a tight stop on the remaining part.

Sorry to hear that, I'm sure you'll get it back soon!