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firewalker
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Everything posted by firewalker
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Yip, July or August 2006. Not even two years ago (and was repped myself too btw)
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I realize the example may not have been the best, but the point was to illustrate that numbers that come out "as forecasted" sometimes will, other times won't, have an effect on the market. True, interest rates usually create more effect than any other potentially market moving factor... But like you said yourself, some factors have caused movement in the past, they don't as much nowadays. But they might again create more volatility in the future, or not... Anyway, point was to show that when a figure (for example quarterly company results) comes out "as forecasted" does not mean that price cannot take a sudden jump lower or higher.
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Actually, the fact that the result is as forecast, does not automatically mean the market will not react. This is an example of April 30, where the FOMC decided to lower intrest rates to 2.00%, exactly as predicted. One could hardly say there was no impact in this case... As always with news, 'good', 'bad' or 'neutral' news, might be fun for analysts, but is mostly irrelevant for traders. On Friday, the market was attracted to support at 470, almost like a magnet. Therefore, odds were higher that it would continue lower after it broke down 570.
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Discretionary and Mechanical Trading: Finding Balance
firewalker replied to Soultrader's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
Surprised to read this and curious about it as well... aren't we taught that most principles and 'guidelines' work amongst all markets, regardless of what timeframe we choose or what kind of market it is (provided there's sufficient liquidity)? -
thx, seems okay now!
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I hope other people take notice of your excellent journal too
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I pay attention to 'the big picture' (see also my blog), but I don't make trade decisions based on them. Although there seems to be a rule about trading against the trend: "trade with the longer term term, but against the short term trend", I've found that there are long & short positions each day by trading off support and resistance. Nice clean charts Are those horizontal lines support? I haven't checked all, but on the YM I have 12470. Is there a reason why there's a line at 12514?
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On Friday, 'important' figures about existing home sales were released at 1600PM (time on the chart). The exact minute is circled on the 1-min chart.. If you look back at the chart of the day, I think it's clear to say the news had almost no impact, other than a very temporary effect. On a 5-minute chart this spike completely disappears and even the volume doesn't mean anything. Price was on the way down to support at 470 and the news could not change that in any way.
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I can get frustrated myself when a nice trade comes back towards my entry point... remember this week, I was +40 at one point, then it returned towards my entry just after I moved my stop to breakeven. Friday's action in the later half of the day was whippy, but I hope you noticed how 520 was the 'point of control'. I think it you focused on shorting from there, or longing from around 470 there were several opportunities. Anything in the middle was pretty risky imo.
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On some occasions, a 'reversal' takes place very quickly. If you don't zoom in to a lower timeframe, you are left behind after the train has departed. Here's one of two weeks ago. You can only see the first two hours of the day, but price closed around 12875 that day, making higher highs and higher longs all the way up to there.
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No, I'm using Firefox. Had the same issue on two different computers though.
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Don't know if this is related... but I'm having similar issues with loading the site itself. It doesn't lock up, but sometimes when I refresh or click another link, I get a time-out. If I click again the page loads fine. It happens to be once every hour or so (if I'm actively surfing the site).
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I thoroughly enjoyed the book, there are some absolute gems of information in it. Over time I've found myself reading chapters again, discovering more truths hidden in the chart, but well explained by Graifer. This is a book I would recommend to anyone who's interesting in doing the work themselves, but not to those who are looking for a book about what to do and how to do it. Graifer suggest several approaches, but fundamentally he proposes that you trade based on scenarios. If X happens, then you do A. If Y happens instead, you act by doing B. As for 'tape reading', the best elements are contained on the least number of pages. Don't expect anything about Time & Sales, because that's not what this book is about. You don't need T&S imo, just plain P/V.
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Actually, I've only installed MetaTrader a week ago, just trying things out myself. I now use it to track what wasp is doing in FX. I've just placed those files the "experts\indicators" directory and they showed up in the indicators list. Menu Insert > Indicators > Custom. Then just click market profile, set the right start date and you have something (see attached chart). Experimenting with it myself right now. One of them seems to work fine, the other not really... but I suspect those familiar with MP will probably be able to tell more.
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Have you tried these? Found them at ForexFactory. Had to zip the other one, because I couldn't attach it (invalid extension error). market profile.mq4 indicators.zip
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Ehm, I suggest wider targets
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Might be appropriate in this thread...
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Are you keeping stats of %winners, average winner, average loser, etc, etc... you know the drill? Comparing weeks in terms of absolute points can be misleading, especially when the volatility in the market changes.
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I wasn't implying you should avoid the trade, but it's worth the observation imo. I'm not saying single bars are important, but in a 'healthy' uptrend wouldn't one want to see volume decreasing on the pauses or moves against the trend and picking up again along the trend? Or have you changed your view on this and do you no longer consider it of any importance?
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Amazing exit, but I still think 460-470 before the end of the day.
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and that's where I closed out for another +55.
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looks like you did even better with your exit! equally well done :applaud:
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scaled out half at 12490 for +80 stop on other half moved to 525.
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stop moved to 510. nice going smb :thumbs up:
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Enjoy it eggbean! Hope it's a sunny place