firewalker

stop moved to 1378.

been two hours, but I'm still holding on ... stop moved to 1382 now.

since nobody answered, I'll take the bait... I think it's just a matter of time before that 11xxx comes up again. Just my 2c

out half at 1381.50 for +8.50 (equivalent of +85 DOW points)

not above 420 if they follow the plan

<- posted yesterday looked unrealistic there for a second...

I'm not keen on shorting on the way down, but a signal is a signal... target is 80

short ES 1390, stop 92 (on the break)

Actually, I think most brokers require you to be 21! Oanda doesn't, so I guess that's why you trade FX and not futures :haha:

You said "I want to believe", so I figured you knew: the new X-files movie premieres at the end of next month.

That doesn't sound good to me. Usually there's a short term trade-off between unemployment and inflation. As we had high inflation we should see low unemployment... the fact that unemployment is also rising spells trouble ahead? Like in most European countries it's been relatively low last couple of months. In Belgium (but this bears no relevance to the NFP numbers obviously) last month was actually the lowest all-time point for unemployment figures. But at the same time inflation is rising higher than expected and because wages are coupled to the index figure, employees have already received two pay rises in just 6 months' time. So far the economic intermezzo

Why not move the stop to breakeven instead of taking 9 pips? Or is the slippage that bad on FX in case of NFP?

Another view: Since the bounce off what I believe is major support around 195, it has made higher highs and higher lows, although it's not a smooth uptrend. The last swing low didn't dip very far, I think this favours a breakout. The question is will you take a short because it seems like resistance (or if I've missed it are you already in?)

Interesting! I didn't realize there was so much to discuss about trendlines... Depends on what you are expecting from those lines. Obviously you can't short 'at the beginning of the red line' because of the red line, at that time you can't draw the line yet. Wasp has his own "style" of drawing lines in his forex charts, but whether or not a trendline is broken doesn't necessarily have to mean something big is going to happen... I wouldn't draw a line at [3], because at that point price failed to make a higher high. As the first break of a trendline signals a change in momentum, price can still make higher highs and higher lows (in an uptrend), but this is not the case here. Even if you had a strong bias towards the long side, I can't see any reason why you'd want to buy at [4], except for the first time in November. But after that price fails repeatedly ('b' and 'c') to break above 'a' so there is weakness in the background. The third time price goes down to the line at [4] it goes straight through it. Although peak 'b' went slightly higher then 'a', it fell back immediately. If you were to suspect the upmove still in play, then I would draw a demandline from the bottom of the congestion in November, extended after the first swing past a and that gets broken soon after the swing to 'b'. I would expect a H&S to form after a sustained upmove, not like in this case. Yes, but are you going to wait until you can draw a trendline to go long or short? Actually, I think wasp is trading neither of those The second time in March, when price fails to make a lower low I would have reason to believe the move lower is over (at that point: 'for the time being'). Also, you can draw a line mirrored of [5] on the lower side, which makes up a triangle formation. Point d has meaning to me, as it is a higher low, which leads to drawing a first upsloping line (first green line on attached chart). I don't see individual bars as resistance. Exactly, so why would you make your entries based on trendlines? Just 50 days left

some fun Youtubies for those out on a date :o make sure you get the right outfit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dvy8YEJzYVI&feature=related first impressions are important: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSFE1GExsKk&feature=related use just enough drugs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwKwBVvLc_E be prepared for anything: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx13_i8_2N8&feature=related and use tact: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_Ci5cTgpTY&feature=related enjoy

They are all Nasdaq charts, first one 1 year, second 4 year, third almost 10 years. I've included these charts to compare 'steepness' of a trendline.

... at what point is the trend no longer down?

excellent work Buzz... why did you close out the first one at +5?

wow, that's a volatile beast you got on your hands the NQ didn't do much except for hover sideways in last 3 hours though :\

and -10 on the other half.

Ha! Your turn to feel it.

Thanks Dinos... I did have one 'off' in between!

half out at 460 for +20, stop moved to 490 on other half.

foale > target 275 (perhaps for tomorrow)

DOW short 480, stop 500.