firewalker

out another 1/3rd at 1958 for +15 stop moved to 65.

looks like that caused an upspike in the markets oil seems to have a bigger impact than in the past these days going to hold my dow shorts NQ is already scaled out

isn't that much more volatile than usual, for the FTSE?

serious spike in oil... but oil falling now...

out 1/3rd at 1963 for +10 stop moved to 70.

well, don't let me influence you in any way! I posted a day full of losing trades too last week... People often overlook that

DOW short 12100, stop 108.

Ok price is at 1969. I'm not going to get lucky three times, so stop moved to breakeven.

and we just got 75.25 ... twice...

NQ short 1973, stop 75.50

out at 12120 for +20 just a pre-market scalp there

DOW long 12100, stop 90.

I'm not sure that "every" expert says so, but I agree most do advocate this kind of strategy... personally I've found it much harder to determine swing trade positions than intraday ones. But that might be a result of not having studied the higher time frame for the same amount of time as intraday positions.

Probably because most people don't care and accept the law of supply and demand "as is". I remember when my professors talked about supply and demand being fundamental to the market, I was one of the few who argued with them about potential aberrations. Theory sounds okay, but in reality it seems the law does not always uphold itself. Soultrader & Trader333 gave some examples of this in the original thread, as did I do myself in the first couple of posts... smwinc, you're probably talking about trading and yes that takes practice, practice, practice. But some of us might be interested in understand the underlying framework as well. That's where auction market theory and general economics come into play imo. Not everybody might see the point of discussing this...

Anyone who hasn't voted, please do It's very interesting to see that from the initial 66/33 the results are turning out to become 50/50...

I think it's too easy to label professional money automatically as the smart money. Who are the professional money? Does it matter? Do they profit all of the time? I don't think so... following their footsteps is obviously the path to take, but it's not because they have bigger 'firepower' they can influence the future path of price on the big timeframe. Given the number of market participants and the amount of money that exchanges hands each day, I think manipulation is much over-rated, but definitely occurs on the shorter time frame. I found this interesting enough to quote here (typos removed): I also suspect that kind of dumb money doesn't mind being called 'dumb' as they aren't the least bit interested But there's nothing wrong with that.

Interesting remarks guys... especially since in my experience I've found the shorter time frame to react more "predictable" than the longer one. Some of the patterns or moves that you find in short term S/R levels, quite easily disappear in the big picture. On the whole, I still find it very fascinating to see how the pieces of the puzzle often fit very nicely together...

1987 is over 20 years ago now, and I think since then a lot of new market participants have entered who don't think or reflect about these kind of things. Although the authors talk about the effects being more psychologically than statistically verifiable, I think it's important to be aware of some calendar effects which have shown up after time consistently. Michael Carboni (http://www.livewithoscar.com) for instance never trades the day before a holiday weekend because he has reason to belief -and as he's been trading for 26 years, so this is obviously based on experience in the field- that market participants behave differently. I think I read somewhere that Fridays (especially after lunchtime) most of the pro's have left the field...

Probably not that much, if you are consistent about what you do... On the other hand I think you need to have clearly defined definitions for your own, otherwise you could end up second-guessing yourself in real-time, and that's probably why a lot of people start doubting their trades or not following their plan.

I'm sure your post is an inspiration for many of us.

Your chart shows exactly the same setup that made me short the NQ (on my 1-min chart). The one difference is that I prefer to wait for a re-test instead of taking the break itself. Shorting on the break and moving your stop to breakeven would've taken you out by the tick. A tick chart illustrates the principle even better though. So I guess they do have pretty much the "same sort of tells"

This might help: It is an important aspect generally of trading futures that the basis – the relationship between the spot price of the underlying and the price of a futures contract – is not constant. This means, day-to-day, that a futures does not exactly track movements in the price of the underlying. Changes in the basis are determined not only by changes in ‘carry’ costs, such as interest rates and storage costs, but also by speculative trading activity. In some markets the futures price of an asset can be more volatile than the cash price. As a futures contract approaches its delivery date, however, its price must converge on the spot price of the underlying because, on the actual delivery date, the futures contract becomes just another spot market transaction. On the delivery day the basis – the difference between the spot price and the futures price – must be zero. This fact allows hedgers to use contracts such as FCOJ futures to manage the risks associated with volatile commodity prices. A food-processing company that is concerned about increases in the price of orange juice can buy FCOJ futures. If the price of the commodity does rise, it can sell the futures back into the exchange shortly before the due delivery date, and realize a profit in cash that will offset the increased cost of buying orange juice in the spot market. -- excerpt from: Derivates Demystified (Wiley, 2004)

It's indeed important to keep in mind what derivatives are. If there is an offset between the cash market price and that of the futures market, it will converge towards the settlement day (expiration day). Futures contracts are highly standardized... the convergence that with the underlying basically warrants the integrity of a futures market. You can find more about this at the CBOT or CME sites, but personally I've found 'The Idiot's Guide to Options and Futures' most helpful in explaining all of this. And it's definitely not for "idiots", many experienced traders probably don't know a lot about how the instrument they trade actually works.

Well since it wasn't clear to me what was intended with a supply/demand chain, I can't answer that question (yet)...

I understand what you mean. That's why I look for clearly defined elements. I was wondering, do you take premarket trades? After all, 1371 was the place to be...