firewalker

no more oil trades since last month? The congestion from June seems to be distribution like I said at that time. However, the first sign doesn't mean the trend is over, and as the trendline was still not broken at that time. Since this week, the steepest line has been broken and we've moved below that huge congestion... So to sum things up, I'd be surprised if we see $150 somewhere in the future, and I think in due time this market will come off.

It's true VIX hasn't spiked up as high as in January or March, but it did go up significantly enough. Agreed we are still in the down channel, the NQ touched the supply line last night at the highs, but more importantly it failed to make new lows below those from March. The ES also broke the trendline drawn from the May highs. So things have definitely changed and I would be much more confident in taking longs now than say a week ago.

Where can I find those scheduled reports?

I'm neutral hehe... Where we are now, is right in the middle of two important 'zones' for me... 420 area and 220 area. I expect price to stay contained between those two levels today, but you never know. There's no major news coming up though, so I'd be looking to trade preferably from those areas. Anything in between is higher risk for me, although there are always a handful of profitable scalps possible I imagine

Well I had the 400-420 area as resistance... Since we moved up 600 points from the lows without some sort of retracement, some profit taking at these levels is to be expected.

Well I'm actually not completely 'back' yet, but I am contemplating several things. One of them is holding a swing position, so when intraday trading gets choppy I have something else to rely on. It's a pleasure to see everybody keeping this board up & running whilst I'm not around. Well done everybody I hope to be contributing again in the near future.

The bounce came right off the middle of that zone

I found this post on "I Look Back Now and Wonder" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month July, 2008"

I'd like to inform everybody that I'll be taking some time away from the markets. Several elements, some from my personal life, some from trading, have got me distracted and left a bit adrift. I feel I need to take some time out to find myself back and focus on that. This means I'll probably not be posting much live trades or posting a whole lot in the coming time. Basically, I need to get everything else which can be possible distracting or emotionally disturbing out of the way. This isn't an easy task, as I had some elements from my private life coming in between. I was surprised to find myself subject so strongly, to that extent that they impacted my trading performance in a rather negative way. I hope those who are contributing to the threads, will continue to do so, in my absence. I'm not sure how long this will last, I'm not taking a holiday or anything but right now I'm not in the optimal state to trade (to say the least)... Wishing everybody the best. Talk soon.

I think there hasn't been the typical capitulation and sellers aren't completely flushed out yet. I have 10750-10850 as potential major support.

Thanks for that info... interestingly enough, despite yesterday's wild swings which seemed to confirm support and head off higher, we are again much lower premarket and close to yesterday's lows. I agree with your sentiment. Each attempt is immediately followed by a strong U-turn sending us lower again. It's also worth mentioning the ES made new lows yesterday while the DOW and NQ did not.

Do markets close in 30min? My IB charts are cut-off there... or at least they were, I just reloaded them and now they show up normal hours. Not that I plan on putting on a trade now...

Although it might be more likely that scalpers use smaller timeframes, I would be incorrect to assume that you are a scalper because you trade off a smaller timeframe... In the same way much of the patterns in a hourly chart disappear in a weekly one, much of the patterns in a 15-second chart probably disappear in an 30 minute one. But that doesn't mean they aren't there anymore. They are just 'hidden' from the eye imo... I'm not sure what you mean by "weighing in the different time factors"... support on a daily timeframe is still support on a 1 second, minute, hour timeframe.

These kind of formations tend to make life difficult when trading from the outer edges... all the false breaks along the road. If you don't mind me asking, does the presence of such a formation have any effect on your trading? I mean, do you wait and stand aside?

I have been in the chatroom last two weeks, mainly posting my entries & exits there. It's been an interesting experience, as other trades have shared their thoughts and visions and potential 'hindrance' levels live. I haven't abandoned ship, but since we've been sort of low on contributors lately, I figured why not see if others who might not be aware this room exists, are interested in participating here as well...

I think tests occur on each timeframe, from one second to one day

Posted this morning here: "This is not an 'exhaustive selloff' and should break the lows easily."

I'll just let the chart speak on that one...

No need to feel defensive... I wasn't attacking your view, but I am nonetheless curious how such a countertrend trade can offer a decent risk:reward trade, given you are basically rowing against a very strong current. So what exactly is the risk in terms of net points, given that you wait for the bar to close?

I'm under the impression you guys are looking for something you confirm your bullish bias. I can't see how this is a "nice risk/reward setup". The 'reward' is entirely hypothetical and why should price - if it reacts to support - bounce up to 1300? The risk however is worth paying some more attention to. Why did you draw your horizontal line at 1260? Because price reacted at it this week? If you connected the lows from January & March you'll end up with support at a slightly lower level. So where would you place your stops? Somewhat below 1260 or somewhat below the Jan/March lows? Sure, there was potential for a long trade intraday. But anyone who looked at yesterday's price action will notice price failing to break clear of resistance at 1290-1292. This is much more significant, and if you got long on potential support that's where you should've taken profits (or at least scale out if you wanted to wait for more confirmation to upmove was over). Of course, all of this assumes you entered not at the close of the daily bar (which was around 1285), but at or very close to 1260. Otherwise the potential reward is absolutely not worth the risk, with resistance so close. As for volume, yes it was higher, but notice how the downtrend is actually accelerating. Momentum is picking up to the downside and VIX is still not anywhere near 'panic' or capitulation levels. This is not an 'exhaustive selloff' and should break the lows easily.

don't you scale out?

I'm not sure it's necessarily a bad thing to deviate from your plan. I wouldn't encourage it, because first you need to learn how to follow your own rules. But after that, you may discover you have reasons to take pre-emptive action. These actions might lead to elements which you can later add to your plan. For example: suppose your plan says to place your stop at 2 points from your entry. You see price going in the direction direction for 3 points but sharply reversing and heading back towards your stop. The chart tells you it's going to fly through your stop. So do you wait to take a 2 point loss or do you exit with a smaller loss or, if you're quick enough, at break-even? At the end of the day, you can analyze what you did and complement your plan. Obviously, you need to be consistent in these circumstances and have clear rules about what kind of signals would lead to you take this kind of "pre-emptive action". Otherwise you might end up closing a perfectly fine trade and reacting on emotions instead of facts.

nice trades;.. I contemplated shorting 1850 NQ... unfortunately wasn't up early enough to enter sharp :crap: price is at 1828 now :\

free market is at risk... 'Liquidation only' restriction? http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/one-method-to-flush-out-oil-speculators.html And 'higher margin requirements'? http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/22/obama.speculators.ap/index.html

I think there has been a lot of valuable and original input. Getting slightly off topic is not uncommon, but in this case I think the thread so far has been quite interesting. All comments were, and still are appreciated...