firewalker

Always :o That last leg down in GBP/JPY just looks awfully much like the ones we had in the indices at the beginning of this year. Sure you can buy on the way down and when selling is exhausted a decent bounce can occur, but that doesn't change the fact it's risky business!

Looking forward to that

I could be wrong, but here's where I see support. Price right now is attracted by the middle of the range from April & May, which is quite typical behaviour. I would expect some pushing and pulling around, then perhaps a retracement back to 208'ish before eventually reaching 204-205. On this timeframe, I would only take trades from the outer extremes, but that's just me

Not sure what you mean by that, a trendline is not an indicator and it's not lagging either. Obviously you don't need a trendline to tell you that momentum was picking up to the downside, but I just wanted to illustrate it graphically... Doesn't sound unfamiliar really... last time I messed up was when I had other things to attend to. I could trade, but I had only 90 minutes and in that time for some reason I desperately wanted to put a trade on and didn't follow the plan. Why do we let these external factors influence our trading decisions?

Well the fanning of the trendlines did offer some clues... Agreed, that's where I would look into volume for clues. But as FX doesn't have it, I'd be more focused on the length and strength of the buying and selling waves: see how far the last swings traveled and so on. Ha! I know how you feel... I was in a short yesterday and I figured: (a) to hell with it I'll just leave it on till the close despite nothing is happening and it has a good chance of getting back breakeven (for the 3rd time that day) (b) I'll take profits now and be happy with what the market offers First I went for (a) but then I changed my mind into (b) and ofcourse near the end of the day the market went a great deal lower Why not? Impatience or something else?

To be honest, I think you're lucky to be in profit... I had a quick look at the latest trades and are were long. If I were taking longs against such a prevalent downmove, people would tell me I'm crazy trying to catch a falling knife! This is just an observation, not an accusation If you buy support just because it's support without waiting for some kind of confirmation that buyers are still around there, you've set yourself up for a higher risk imo. Taking into account that I know next to nothing about this instrument, this is how I see it! I'm sure you had pretty much the same as a support zone, but where is the long signal you & cowpip are seeing?

This is where the mechnical trader acts on the hammer, while the discretionary trader might also decide to do so, but gets out at the first sign of trouble. Notice how momentum was picking up to the downside... going long here is going against a very strong current. Just my 2c

the later the more profitable it seems! excellent profits I wish they were mine today

and then when you think the day is over, the move you wanted to see materialize happens :crap:

to keep you busy http://cognitivefun.net/test/5 not that easy!

With just over an hour to go, I'd be surprised if we break out of this small range. Like I said this morning, an inside day was to be expected This also means that - from a value point of view - the price level where we open tomorrow (relative to todays 60 point range) will be important to determine the most likely direction of the next move... As always, just my 2c.

indeed... although I hoped for a bit wider range than this :\

I think it's worth taking into account the market situation. Today is a balancing day, yesterday was quite a different ballgame...

I agree with brownsfan, but at the same time I must say this isn't easy. And even on some days I wish I closed out my trade and took what was available instead of let price return to my entry point at breakeven. But over the long run, it's those triple digit profits (well at least at the DOW) that make up for all those damn sorry trades...

better that than nothing (like me!)

so it was out -15 price action not that clear to me today

what a day... two trades, both back to breakeven. I haven't exited this one, but price is zzzzzzz......... (stop at 85)

DOW short 11670

out breakeven, this isn't doing anything :\

S&P long 1299.

Lol, I thought you might say that. And although I agree there is no substitute for screentime, this author isn't just anyone who sells books, he actually trades and he used to be vice president of the CBOE. Also, I truly believe that what price opens is a result of the information of the previous day and days. For example, when price opens outside of the previous day's range (or 'value') and departs from it, you often have yourself a higher probability of a trending day. The thing about Market Profile is that it not stresses the importance of value, not just price, the book departs from a couple of interesting concepts. Not that it makes me change my strategy, but it does help give me a better understanding of why the market moves in the way it does.

And this is what happened next... Exactly as I said

Hi Dinos, good to hear from you! Not so sure about "many great trading days" to be honest! Only getting back into it last two weeks, had a rough couple of days in July...

here's 1950... but not much of a reaction (yet?)

exactly! very odd