firewalker

Thanks for the info about Asia Soultrader. Short covering looks to be the case, with the US markets having moved slowly higher since the close. I don't see anything to be bullish about to be honest. The gap on Monday, caused by the takeover of Freddie & Fannie, was imo a great opportunity to get short again. Despite the markets opening much higher, the speed at which we have fallen back below that level is a better measure. Fade the news and all Also, despite oil still falling towards $100, the markets are not reacting positively. Next to that, if we look at the big picture on the ES the bounce that started in July had much less strength than the one in March. I would interpret that as a lack of fresh money coming into the market and think we are in another selling wave.

DOW short 11330 (S/R reversal trade)

took only +10 as it's quickly reversing lower again...

DOW long 11330

To be honest, I learned that you and me might have different approaches, but that doesn't change the fact that my only issues were with the summer doldrums... Finding proper S/R has worked fine (I'd say near perfect) for the last 7 days, and strangely enough I have not changed my approach in any way. I respect your differences, but (thanks cowpip) if that's a reason to end this discussion then I feel sorry. After all, a market exists because of people with different opinions. If everybody would be thinking the same, you wouldn't be making money either...

Have you personally tried trading something where you're right 50% or less? I'm sure some traders "with the right mindset" manage to do just fine, but I'm not one of them. And I think that a lot of people would have much less trouble if they could trade something which means being right 80% of the time. Nearly all of the time that means trading less though, and being very very patient. And that's another matter

Also, if you have a plan where you're right 7-8 times out of 10 instead of 5/10, I think it's more easy to stay disciplined.

out -2 :hmmmm:

ES long 1266.

the winning streak had to end sooner or later! -2

ES short on break of support at 1259.50.

It's easy to say in hindsight, but if I looked upon things that way, then yes I probably would've been on the right side of a trade more than not. As we're talking about the summer months, how do you view July? It's one big range where I would not feel comfortable trading from anything in the middle tbh...

You should only post when you want to; these things can indeed be distracting. I regularly take breaks and I only post or reply to messages when I feel like it (mostly in the mornings because I focus on the markets in the afternoon). For most of us it's different, since we aren't in a position all of the time. Thanks for all of the contributions and posts. No worries, I'll keep mentioning your name whenever I feel like making fun of someone

Hi there cowpip, everyone makes mistakes... Question: How do you identify support?

Thanks erie, I take it you see price action as a reversal because it breaks the last swing low. But before that it made a higher high, so I'm not confident the trend has reversed. Depending on the importance of that 1900 level, I'd even consider everything up to the 21st as a retracement. When price bounces of 1900 and reacts up to almost 1950, I have a trend continuation signal. Now if you consider that reversal to be R, I take it this is how you see things?

I've only looked at your chart, and not included anything that came before. So my interpretation is strictly based on this snapshot, although otherwise I'd always look to the left of my charts to see where previously potential S/R levels lie. There are obviously more retracements and more trends on your chart than I've annotated, so I only included what I thought was important enough to mention.

I'm putting my money on cowpip

Even Belgium has one!

other half out 1263 for +16

first half out at 1268 for +11, stop to 1275 on other half.

Watching closely...stop moved to 1278.50 to protect the trade.

ES short 1279. I'd be very surprised if we break 1280 today. Since this move up is based on nothing but news, my contrarian mind thinks fading it is the best thing to do!

Hi flojo, I'd say I try to use some ideas to the best of my ability: - shorting a secondary high at resistance on lower volume - buying the test after a selling climax - taking a trade when price moves from a state of equilibrium (consolidation, congestion) to a state of strong directional moves There's are just a few... I mean the ideas or the approach is not a fixed set of trading rules or tactics, so my 'interpretation' or my practical work-out might be different than others who use similar guidelines. Btw: nice charts you have there!

Good illustration brownsfan... that's actually very similar to my approach. Just one comment: on my chart the second short occurred 15min after the open...?

Yeah I remember that SMA(200) touch, it had several confluences together. There's a chart posted somewhere in another place (I think it was the YM/ES/DJIA analysis thread). I considered the area surrounding 1262 to be crucial too. I agree there's very little between this and lower now, and there's a good possibility we can fall lower fast and hard.