firewalker

looks like overnight limits are maximum 5%... I thought circuit breakers only came into play after 10% but that's during the day

it's official the market is dead! check this out did somebody pull the plugs??

While everybody was complaining about how fast oil was rising, no one seems interested anymore in why it is falling even more sharper than it went up!

Why is it that commodities often show more directional moves than equilibrium ranges? At least if I compare this to for example the NQ or the ES... While everybody was complaining about how fast oil was rising, no one seems interested anymore in why it is falling even more sharper than it went up!

Atto, what's your experience in terms of reversal or continuation patterns? Perhaps interesting to add: "Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts."

It seems inevitably we'll return to lower levels than these... Let's just hope we don't get the extremely tight daily ranges that some markets experienced in February last year (for example ES daily range 8-10 points :shocked:)

Hi jason, I'm not sure if you have "more options" just because 1 point is only $5. It terms of absolute volatility it's pretty much the same as the ES. For example, if the ES moves 4-5 points in 1 minute, then the YM moves 40-50... net result the same. I agree both are very correlated and move in similar ways. Because the ES is much thicker in terms of liquidity, I did conclude that the tendency to "spike" or "overshoot" is much less probably on the ES than on the YM... just thought I'd tell you about my experiences. As always, I'm interested to hear what your conclusions will be

The author also talks about 90% days, which have been mentioned here as well: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/the-selling-climax-4596.html

You've got yourself a risk manager?

Preferably a slow and gradual dry-up, after which volume "explodes" and price reacts. It doesn't always work out that nice, as dbphoenix mentioned and Bearbull illustrated, but I prefer to wait for something clear-cut.

Your chart has no timeframe on it, but am I right to conclude that you've drawn the hinge from the day before, leaving out the overnight and this is a 2 or 3-min chart? If you don't mind me saying, the volume on the breakout doesn't seem spectacular imo... in fact it's hardly higher than two bars before. There was a nice hinge on the ES earlier this week, and this one led to a meaningful move in the opposite direction (see attached charts one is a 5-min, the other a 1-min chart). Your hinge is a continuation pattern, and although I can't say I have done enough study on this to make it conclusive, it does look as like those are more common. Any thoughts about that?

even if you didn't did it on purpose, nice tongue in cheek comment! lol The only reason I started making a couple of posts is because wasp's thread has potential! (That and the fact I need to have a comfortable buffer to remain the no1 in terms of #posts :o) Carry on!

Seems to me like Bladerunner is your bitch aaaah! 5 reps out of 10, I mean, does he fancy you or WHAT?! :haha:

You mean the 'much alike bees' wasn't even the slightest hint at a certain wasp? :o

I absolutely agree that the open can be the most emotional point of the trading day. That, and news. I've found myself getting stopped out of a trade too on occasion, only for minutes later to see things going in the right direction. There can be some 'overshooting' as I like to call it as regard to S/R levels during these times. The positive side is: the more emotion involved, the faster price moves... whether that's a good or bad depends entirely on the trader

I like to look at it this way: on one part there is 'the plan': strategy, tactics, entry & exit, stops, etc. on the other part there are 'the rules': position size, risk, number of trades per day, maximum losing streak, etc... So yes it can be a high probability signal but at the same time violating the rules...

I'm wondering how your last rule is going, to only trade after 9:50am. I set myself the rule not to open new positions after US lunchtime, as a form of protection against giving profits back and also because I prefer to manage a winning position then enter a new one near the end of the day. However, last two weeks I've been papertrading the rest of the day, and very often I see a good trading opportunity arise, and indeed it's a profitable one. The only thing I'm doing now really, is not squeezing out as much profits of the market as would be possible. I am faced with the dilemma of breaking my rules, or at least adjusting the rules to compensate, but I remind myself why there were put there in the first place: to prevent overtrading and to stop undisciplined behaviour. So what if you have a very high probability signal, the market is screaming at you to take it, but it happens before 9:50am your time?

looks like they might be gone for a few 'months' rather then days...

Sure, for example Your backtesting shows you made an average of 12 points per day in a certain period (let's assume January till March year 200x), versus an average of 8 pts/day in the months April till June. Next you compare those points with the daily range. From January to March that was 20 points (for example), and from April till June it was 10. Your first conclusion would be that you did worse in April-June, but in relative (%) terms you actually did better. If you don't pay attention to this, you might begin to extrapolate the numbers and draw the wrong conclusions...

if I'm not posting here, you can find me in the chatroom... but we're still alive!

What charts are you looking at? Mine shows the same, so seems fine...

If you put it that way, I can hardly disagree I think it's difficult to analyze the net result between scaling in/out and entering/exiting full position unless you split the scaling in and scaling out and compare those to the 'normal' trading strategy. It looks to me like scaling has will do little for you, because pyramiding is usually a strategy employed for longer term positions. When I read that you hold trades sometimes for less then 10 minutes, I can see why this approach hasn't yielded better results. I'm not sure if I missed it, but have you compared what entering with full position combined with scaling out does to your average profit? I guess you'll need to go back in history a bit for that! Good luck on that, I never really done much analysis based on VIX alone, therefore I'd like to subscribe to the results of your study In my backtesting, I always normalized the daily range so that results deviating from the mean, just because of the volatility, didn't give me the wrong impression about the profitability of my method.

and nothing just interesting to see correlation between an US equity market and a currency pair that has little to do with the US!

Strangely enough, I've found last two weeks easier to trade than anything in the whole summermonths! don't know about yours, but whatever S/R I had on my chart, worked beautifully

I prefered the downside. In and out in no time... almost felt like scalping longer term? this is a 1min chart if you wait 10 minutes you see a lot of profit vanish...