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Everything posted by ACS
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It will take several readings of the book and viewings of his lectures before details such as that start to make sense. And even without the details there are many big picture concepts that are alone worth the effort. The most obvious one is the discussion of how trends behave and terminate and when to switch from with trend to counter trend setups.
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EMA Gap is a type of trend trade and requires the same preconditions as all trend trades. When he says "flat" I assume it means a very short term flat correction in an otherwise strong uptrend and not an overall flat market.
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I was trading a trend that had not yet broken the trendline or had a strong reversal pattern.
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Look for patterns yourself and then go to AB's web site and compare your chart to his. With time things should start to become clearer. Don't cheat and look at his chart first. If you really want to learn you have to do the work yourself first then use his chart to correct yours. Yes today was tough for me as well. Too many overlapping bars. I only took one trade, the H2 at 1002.50 at 12:45 NYT.
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I definately agree with you which is why I'm only asking for a copy of the chart(s) that Dr. Brooks is already creating for himself. Scanning and sending a copy to an e-mail list or posting them to a website would require just a little additional time, effort, and cost on his part which he is certainly entitled to be compensated for. Mentoring is a totally different story.
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I would not expect anything that takes away from your trading or mine for that matter. The one service that would be most helpful to me would be an e-mail (or web access) after the close of your marked up chart(s) for that day with a little commentry like the first day you have posted. Also it would be great if you could post your list of corrections to the book on your site since Wiley doesn't seem to want to do so. Finally I hope any fees are commensurate with the ability of a beginning trader to afford them. Looking forward to your efforts!
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Look at USO, do not trade the QM futures it is too thin.
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The tails were just a little too big for me on the first bar. I saw trade 2 but the signal bar was a doji and after a sharp up and down a trading range was a strong possibility so I didn't pull the trigger. The reversal bar at the low was not a good looking one and the second entry was in barb wire (you had to be very persistant to get filled on that one). The rest of the day was too messy for me too.
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Came up with a goose egg today. Not a single setup spoke to me. Anyone see anything?
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The only trade I saw today that was worth the risk was the failed breakout of yesterday's high early in the morning with an entry short at 976.00. Good looking inside bear signal bar and it was selling at the top of a prior trading range.
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If you look at the early articles in Futures and first presentation at the I-Trade show, volume is on the charts. The volume vanished from his later articles and lectures. My guess is that he has been looking at charts for so long that he just intuitively knows the approximate volume, possibly from how often the price changes or ticks on each bar or some other subtle clue.
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You have to remember Brooks differentiates between trades that are just scalps and those where he swings at least some portion. If you are just trading for a 1 point target with a 2 point stop then I agree you are at a disadvantage and would be lucky to break even as a beginner. He mentions several times in the book that big profits come from trading multiple contracts and knowing when to swing some for that much better risk/reward ratio.
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Chapter 9 has quite a few losing trades described as failures and the last paragraph on page 199 talks about news events.
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Agree 100%. If there is ANY doubt about a trade... stay out!
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This morning is a reminder that nothing is perfect. Not only was the first bar a bull trend bar but it was also a very good looking reversal bar after two legs down that broke the bull trendline from yesterday and it was a trend channel overshoot. Hopefully you realized that it was just the first leg of a two step pullback to the EMA and got short at 969.00.
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Lessons from Thursday for me. You can look at Wednesday from 10:40 (NY time) on as a big bull flag so buying the first bar bull breakout Thursday was a logical trade. You needed the full 2 point stop but the trade did work. That huge 9:55 bar was apparently a very short term climax and that is why there was such a big pullback before the trend resumed. Situations like that require a bigger stop or waiting for another setup. The rest of the day just required a suspension of disbelief in the trend.
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Still working on that one myself. It seems like the ES loves to go back and hunt for stops. Many times you get 3-4 ticks and then it tests not only the entry price but the signal price and even one tick beyond before giving you the needed 5.
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Why didn't you take the second bull trap short at bar 15?
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To me the best trades happen, first of all, when the bars are moving vertically rather than horizontally. I avoid all barb wire and tight trading ranges since I know I'm not good enough, at least yet, to trade them. A clear two legged pullback in a strong trend is number one. The second leg of an expected two leg move after a pattern such as a wedge, flag, trendline break, trend channel overshoot, etc. would be number two.
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You are overtrading. On a day like this 14 trades is WAY too many. Look for 1-3 trades a day that really jump out at you. Your first trade makes sense to me because after the bear flag you should expect one more leg down. The second trade was a sale at a time when you could be expecting the correction to end after two legs down from the bear flag. There was a gap open higher so even with the flag the larger trend might be up. Better to wait for more price action to see if the market reverses from that low or continues down. The bar after your second trade was a setup for a H2 from a double bottom that tested the prior close. From that bottom you would expect two legs up and the best trade was the H2 (variant) that came two bars after your fourth trade. By then you should be finished since the market was indecisive and there was a lot of barb wire (where you took 6 trades). Slow down and try to think about what the price action is revealing about the market. When you have attained that ability then the best setups will become obvious. I have only begun my own journey down that road but it has helped me eliminate a lot of losing trades already. Make sure you do the same thing when reviewing charts at night. Don't just look for setups, look for the story the market told during the day. Best of luck.
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The first several bars were more than a range, they were a bear flag so you should expect at least two legs down. The first leg ended at 939.75 and bounced off the EMA but that bounce was only a pullback before the next leg down. No buys should be contemplated until the market shows signs of strength after that second leg down.
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Just about all these questions have been asked and answered in previous posts or in the videos that are linked here.:missy:
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I agree. Trade 2 gave some serious heat, probably due to the prior three bars forming a sort of trading range that tried to pull the market back up, but it did work and it shows why you need a two point stop.
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My first instinct is yes but if you look at some of the charts in the book then I'd say no.
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ES broke a bull TL three bars after bar 1 so look for two legs down which ended one bar after bar 3. Now look for test of extreme in two legs. First leg ended four bars after bar 3. Market then tests the EMA and starts what looks like second leg but stops at bear flag at bar 4. Flag means two legs down again. First leg is doji after bar 4 and second ends three bars after bar 4. Now have higher low so expect rally to test extreme. This unfolds as two legs. First leg ends two bars after bar 5 and may be THE top but the pullback holds the TL and forms a second leg up to the HOD. Second TL is then broken so longer looking to buy unless strong uptrend begins again. You should not be looking to sell between bars 5 and 6; trend is up, no break of TL, etc. Context is important; every L2 is not a sale. Between bars 8 and 9 it looks like every L signal bar is a bull trend or doji that the book warns about. Bar 3 is classic two-legged pullback to the EMA and clearly the best trade.