Gary

The morning session in ES had good trades. I worked the 3 min chart where things set up best. Yesterday at the end of trading had stopping volume. The morning opened with an up thrust and the market fell off. So weakness was in the background. On the first rally, there were two no demand bars in a row - how sweet can you get it? I took a short on the close. The next rally had another no demand and then an up thrust bar which was a good place to add shorts. (Who says there no such thing as no demand.) I got concerned by the high volume, wide spread and close on the next bar and thought it might be a climax, so all shorts got covered. It did rally and then came off again. The real climax was at 1415. You can see it on the 15 minute chart. I didn't see anything worth trading after that.

BearBall, I tried to follow your chart, but can't. My data is way differnt than what you post. Are you sure you got that date right?

Bert, Sure. I put up two five minute charts that might help to see it clearer, but you can see it on the 3 minute too. The first shows the down trend with tendlines. As you said, we were in a pretty good trend down. But they all have to end somewhere, don't they. At the bottom, it got very oversold. It went through the original support line and then thru another parallel support line. The second chart shows the detail. On the bar marked B it is way oversold. The volume spikes and the close is in the middle. Buying came in there. On the next bar, it dipped lower than B and then closes right near its high and almost at the high of B. This confirmed the buying and strength on B. It is also a bottom reversal. Because the volume wasn't excessive on the second bar, supply was not swamping here, and it could go up. I waited for a test to confirm and this was seen on the 3 minute chart, as I posted earlier. Just to be clear on why this was strength. Look 11 bars back from B (sorry, didn't label this one). It's another down bar on even higher volume, oversold, close in the middle. Was this buying? I think so, but look at the next bar. Look at how low it went and look at the close. Whatever buying was on the previous bar failed on this bar. Next bar was no demand and it comes off again. If you compare the B and the bar to follow with these two bars, you can see strength vs continued weakness.

Its really important to think this way. When Tom and Sebastian discuss this, they always emphasize the background. The individual bars are important, but not until you have the strength or weakness come in. If you don't have strength or weakness in the background, then you are making low probability trades. I see that in some of these posts - "well, here's a no demand and it didn't work." Of course it won't work if you have strength in the background. The background trumps the individual bars, but the individual bars that are consistent with the background are what you want to think about when making trades. It really is pretty logical stuff.

BearBull, You must be exhausted half way thru the day trading like that. Perhaps it's not VSA that frys you, but your emotional trading? I don't think any method would work when a trader is like an emotional pinball machine, bouncing up and down getting high or down on each and every bar. I've been working with VSA for about 3 years and have found it to suit me best. It really doesn't phase me about what the rest of you say about it. I just thought this was a forum about trading VSA, not one to trash it. Despite your counterclaims, that is really what you are doing. But, as I say, to me it really doesn't matter whether you like the method or not, it suits me fine. So BearBull, here is how I approached yesterday. This may be long, but since you went to so much troubel with all your charts and stuff, I want to give you a fair repsonse. First, I knew there was resistance at the 1422-24 area. There were highs there from May 2 & 6. If price was going to fail going higher, it would do that here. If price was going to break through that level, it would need to do it with some demand behind it - seen by increasing volume on up bars and wider spreads with good closes. I watched the 30 minute chart and didn't see that come together. The 30 minute was pretty interesting. Volume was not confirming higher prices, although the closes were up throughout the day. Then price shot up on the 30 minute at 1:30, but the next bar was weak on sustained volume. Then, the next bar (2:30)closed lower, again on sustained volume. This was the first down bar on the 30 minute all day. This said to me that a reaction was coming. You could see weakness as I pointed out on the 5 minute chart. This was especially clear on the up thrust with high volume (2nd W). I saw the no demand bar at 1, as you pointed out. You could have taken a short trade there, and there would have been nothing wrong with that. Your stop would be above the last high, and if you had sat through all sideways action for the next 40 minutes, you would have been fine. I don't take those because of just that. I saw the up thrust and no demand, but this did not meet my trading plan requirements, so I let it pass. But, its a personal choice. So, if you did take that trade the next bar (2) is a down bar which confirms the no demand. You say it is no supply because of the low volume, but this is a misreading of the bar. There is weakness in the background, not strength. VSA talks about this in some detail. It's a question of understanding the nuances of VSA, I guess. The bar to follow is also down, so even if you did think that 2 was a test, it is now a failed test. So the market slides down to 3 and some buying comes in. There is a little shelf of support, so this is potentially a bullish bar. However, the next bar 4 is another no demand, so it negates any strength on 3. Also, there is relatively high volume now on 4, which is an indication of supply (narrow spread, up bar). There is still weakness overall. Price next falls to 5 and makes a lower low. But, there is a bottom reversal. This could be buying coming into the market and a concern. If I were short from 1, I would definately cover on the close for a half-point scratch. The bottom reversal indicates that price might try to test the high. The next bar (3rd W) is an up thrust on increased volume. This is followed by a down bar, close on the lows. The bottom reversal has failed. This more weakness. The up thrust catches stops from early shorts and sucks in new longs. The rapid down bar that follows confirms the up thrust. So here, in recap, is what you have: 1) A higher time frame resistance area. 2) Weakness on the 30 minute chart. 3) Some stopping volume on the lower time frames. 4) Up thrust and no demand bars. 5) Potential strength that did materialize (at 3 and 5) were wiped out by further weakness. 6) Lower highs and lower lows. With all that in the background, bar #6 was a perfectly logical place to short the market. The next five bars to follow were all down and confirm both the short and significant weakness seen in the charts. If you missed 6 because your emotions were getting in the way or you just couldn't read the chart well, then look at 7. This bar was another no demand - a low volume up bar, close off the highs with significant weakness in the background. This bar is telling you that the market is not going very high - it can't on no demand. And there is no demand there, despite what others say. That was a nice trade in a liquidating market that made you good money. This is how I analyze the market and how I work a trade. I look to stack stuff up in my favor by using VSA. I hope I've been able to make this clear to you. You don't need anything else if you develop the skills. I've worked very hard at this and it works well for me. If you want something else to float your boat, then do that. As I say, its a personal choice and it doesn't matter to me. If you want to talk about VSA trades and analysis, I'm all for it. But if you all just want to trash it then I won't waste my time.

Hi Winnie, A no demand would be a narrow range up bar (ideally) on low volume that you see after weakness (selling) has appeared. Price does rise on no demand, despite what DDPheonix is saying. The chart is an example of no demand that was a good entry for the sell off this afternoon in ES. It is a 5 minute chart. There was weakness that came in (Ws) and the market rounded over. It failed going higher and made a lower high. Right after that is the no demand where I put the cursor on. BearBull, The examples you gave have no weakness in the background. The light volume down move said it would go up, not down. So those examples don't give a true picture.

I don't know what you mean by "VSA Central," but there is no misstatement. In fact, from the VSA perspective, wide spread up bar are not "created by buyers." Wide spread up bars create buyers. VSA is concerned with looking at the spread and volume to discern the professional interest in the market. What pushes prices higher does, in fact matter to VSA. Prices can be pushed high on strong demand or on no demand, and there is a vast difference. I don't know who you are or what method you trade, but here is a piece of advice: Make sure you know your facts before speaking, and check your arrogance at the door.

It helps to think differently than other traders when trading with VSA. Wide spread up bars attrack buyers. Everyone dog piles into the market. This is when it is easiest for the smart money to unload their holdings that they bought at lower prices. If they tried to sell out when the market is falling, they would be pushing prices lower against themselves. This is why they sell into big up bars and why the market does not like high volume on up bars.

Hi Taz, Technically, I think you are right. Its an up bar on volume less than the previous two. From what I understand, it's not one to read too much into, however. It may knock the market down slightly for a bar or two. That would be expected because of this bar and the fact that QQQQ rose over the last two days but volume isn't rising. But, since QQQQ is in an uptrend and there is no sign of weakness, its not a safe bar to take a short on. Also, the high is higher than the previous bar - it would be a stronger no demand if the high were lower. On that trade from yesterday, I went short on the 10 minute no demand bar and covered on the reversal. I basically got in an out on the close of each bar and made a little over 4 points. It was a nice trade. I didn't really see anything else worth risking money for yesterday.

There was a nice emini trade that set up this morning after the down move started. On the 10 minute chart there was a weak rally and no demand. The 5 minute had a great top reversal to confirm. I like using the different time frames to set up trades like this.

The short trade setup was taken because there was weakness in the background. There was no strength. One trade set up on a 10 minute chart, the other on the 3 minute. During the seminar they turned off the software indicators. They didn't talk about the software and try to sell it. They put out a high quality product with this symposium in my opinion.

Hi Blowfish - The symposium was organized around the 10 principle signs of weakness and 9 principle signs of strength that are discussed in the Tom Williams book and in the TG software. There were very detailed discussions with several examples of each principle, and this was quite good. There was lots of discussion on supply and demand and how this is seen in the principles. It wasn't just about price bars, but what is going on behind the scenes, so to speak. I came away from that portion of the seminar with a good understanding of the different types of strenghts and weaknesses and why they appear when they do - much better than what I thought I knew when I went in. The second day was spent on applying these principles in trades. Tom Williams did a presentation on how and when to combine the principles for high probability trades. This was basically the way has traded as a syndicate trader and for his own account for 35 years. This was excellent. He is an awesome trader. Sebastian Manby seemed to tell everything he knows about trading and presented a highly refined way of trading with VSA that was simply brilliant. The two trades above were based on his refinements, which I didn't know about before. There was also a presentation on psychology and one quite good session on developing a trading plan with lots of important details, which I am completing. There was also a lot of right edge chart analysis, and three different afternoon sessions of live trading in different markets. This was good to see the principles set up, and the actual trades. If anyone needed proof that this works so well and can be traded, there it was. I'm just giving an overview and leaving a lot out, but this was highly professional. It certainly was the most complete and practical seminar I have ever gone to. The stop on the second trade was under the low of the bar previous to the test/entry bar. This was still quite tight and gave enough room for that little dip. Putting it under the swing low would have been more risk than I would have wanted and not really neccessary.

I made two trades today based on what I learned at the VSA Symposium. These are the first trades I made since the event. The first trade was a short on the emini on the 10 minute chart. I entered on the close of the no demand bar and trailed a stop until the volume spiked and I covered. The second was a long trade on the 3 minute chart. I took a test after strength appeared in the background. The spread on the test was maybe a bit wide, but it worked out OK. The trade was closed a couple of ticks below resistance because it was getting late and with the big move down, the resistance traders would be shorting there. I learned a lot at the symposium, as today's trading shows. Plus, the cost of the training was more than covered today.

Great Symposium, Sebastian. I was going through the principles sessions today during the lackluster trading, and getting even more out of the rich content. What an incredible event. I saw the climatic action at the end of the day and wondered "could this really indicate a higher level tomorrow?" Now I know I am seeing it!