trader273

CL had an uneventful day. Not much movement and unable to take out yesterday's low. Heating oil and Nat Gas took out the lows, so I would suspect that monday the low will be taken out on CL. till then...

How is this even an option? Shouldn't people using VSA come to the same conclusion? I do not see how one person could come up with a short, all the while someone else, using the exact same methodology, come up with a long, then another trader comes up with a stay out of the market. That makes no sense. I guess using this logic, VSA will always be correct. But the problem is that doesn't mean the trader using it will always be correct. If the same methodology can come up with exact opposite answers to the same question, it just shows that there is a major flaw in the methodology.

OK, I'm not going to try and pretend I understood that. Maybe if I spent some time on it I could figure this VSA stuff out, but what is the point? Make something complicated when it needs not to be?? That makes sense. I'll just stick to simple candle analysis since it works and many, including me, have shown trades before the move occurred. Why add all this other "information"? Markets are simple, it's the traders that feel the need to complicate things.

I dont think its possible to tell if the long shadow after a move is either buyers drying up or sellers coming in. I think that is what the guys over in the VSA thread are trying to do, but they post everything in hindsight and some see entirely different things on the same bar. Many have shown time after time in the CC that simple analysis is all that is needed.

James, Do you use those moving averages for trade ideas? I used to use (read: attempt to use ) moving averages but could never get profitable with them.

I dont think I even want to know how you figured this one out.

Well I said earlier that if these new highs were rejected I would be looking for a short, and here we are: Heating oil also developed the same type of price action: And Natural Gas also showed the same: I think that all the markets are showing that the new highs, as of right now, are not sustainable.

Here is an intra-day look at crude after the all time high was made. As seen on the daily chart the daily candle finished with a large upper shadow, representing sellers coming in. The all-time could resistance.

Beautiful trade. Anyone wanna argue if the volume on bar 3 was greater than that of bar 2 but not greater then that of bar 5?? yeah, didn't think so. Keep it simple is the name of this game.

I guess it all comes down to how you are viewing the Support and Resistance. If viewing only on a daily it would appear that there are not many upper shadows, but if you view it in a context of daily and weekly, you will see that sellers are apparently at this level.

That is one ugly looking daily chart. I do not think traditional CSA ( candlestick analysis- hey, everyone has abbreviations for their stuff, why not us. I hope the VSA dont get too mad though:hmmmm:) works well on market like that.

Something that I have come across is to use the signal opposite of what it was intended to do. For example, instead of going short when stochastics enters oversold, look for a long. Just an idea, haven't tested it at all.

Not a bad trade. Heating oil had the same kind of price action. One thing to watch here is that HO has not gotten above the most recent resistance level. It has the potential to hold up CL.

This support was right on today.

In this thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/104/crude-oil-march-20-a-3631-3.html#post33729 I showed that after the move up in crude, a trader should not be surprised to see a move back to the middle of the candle. That level was 107.70. Plotting that level and going to a 15 min chart, you get the following: Just some simple analysis can yield some nice profits. Of course there is much more to consider. Such as: Where and How to Enter Where to put a protective stop Where to take profits How close to Support/Resistance does price need to come

CL looking strong:

Update CL analysis.

What the hell do you think you are doing HERE DB:confused:. This is for people who only, and I repeat, only use candlesticks. I have seen your charts and you use bar charts, how dare you!?!?! This is the "Candlestick Corner". First you are out to destroy the VSA thread, but luckily Eiger is there to keep you in check. Now I see you over here? I know what you are up to :security:. Don't try to derail this thread either. We do not need anyone's view point but our own. We don't want to share ideas with other people unless they have the same ideas we do. What do you think this is, an open forum where people are free to express there opinions and thoughts?? I don't think so. DB, I hope you see the sarcasm in this reply. It is in no way serious. We welcome everyone over hear that the candlestick corner. I just find it amazing that some people feel it is there job to try and control a thread or topic for whatever reason. So hopefully you'll enjoy your stay and feel free to post whatver you want. God forbid, we might learn something new.

Looks good so far:

Well if something like that works for you that is great. However, whenever I have run a test of piecing out vs all out, the scaling out has never come out ahead. It always seemed that I would take less on the winners ( since scaling out lowers your average when compared to getting all out). Like your example here. Your average profit is 1.5 instead of 2 if you got all out at 12. But when stops occurred, it was for my full lot. Just doesnt make sense to me that I would be willing to take a full loss on my full lot, all the while taking less on my winners. Maybe it was just me though. Every trader has their own way.

If you scale out of winners, you better be scaling out of losers also.

I think that there needs to be a "Realism" factor in this ratio. Anyone can say they want to risk 1 to make 10, but how realistic is that you are going to make ten before losing 1? If you can consistently stay about 1, and depending on your trading costs, you can go around 50% and break-even. Being more realistic, you would probably have to go around 55-60%. Then the question becomes how do you quantify this throughout the day. Do you keep a constant 1:1.5 ratio? So either you have a fixed profit in mind and your stop will be based on that, or your profit objective will be based of your stop. Either way, you will be hard pressed to remain consistent. What I mean is, some trades will require smaller stops which means smaller profit objectives ( if you are staying at a constant 1:1.5). Now a problem will arise if you take your profitable trades on the smaller profit objectives, but take your losses on the larger stop/profit objective trades. Some trades might say, well no matter what I'll have a 2 point stop and a 4 point target. This might work for some, but without using market structure to figure profit objectives and stops, I believe you will find yourself frustrated with the amount of stop outs. I am not suggesting that money and risk management isn't key in successful day trading, I just do not believe the risk-reward ratio is as important as everyone makes it out to be. It looks good on paper, but in practice it can be hard to maintain.

my take on oil:

No it does not look to pretty for longs right now. However, that monthly high, looks like 110 could become a very important level. I could see a test up to those highs, now what its going to do there is left to people with a crystal ball. So I would wait to see if they take up to test the highs or bring it back down to the previous support level.