DannyBly

Gold back at 6-month highs after Bank of Japan stimulus - Looking at the daily chart we can see that Spot Gold (XAU/USD) is trading right at resistance of the major downtrend line and also that MACD is close to the zero line. Chart courtesy of Oanda

An Inside Bar is a bar which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, indicating a period of indecision or consolidation. If an Inside Bar is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can signal a possible reversal in trend. The Japanese Candlestick pattern called Harami is very similar, with a large candlestick followed by a smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger body. The Bullish Harami occurs after a downtrend, with a red candlestick engulfing a small green candlestick, giving a sign of a possible bullish reversal in trend. So in this case of Alcoa (AA) on the daily chart we have both an Inside Bar and Bullish Harami. Let's see how it plays out next week, within the context of the broader recent selloff in stocks. Chart courtesy of Worden the logic of the set up in more detail; Chart courtesy of Worden Technically the bullish breakout case is stronger I think, but it is dampened of course looking at the broader context of the market we are in (S&P 500 has worst Thanksgiving week since 1932!)

Pressure building up in the USD/CHF horizontal channel between the near support of 1.1710 and the multiple top resistance level of 1.1804. Recent upmove is also contained within the larger upward sloping channel displayed in the chart. Momentum still in bullish territory as reflected by RSI - above 50 but flatish. I'm looking for significant follow through to the upside if the 1.1804 level can be violated -

In the midst of the global economic crisis, the US Dollar and the Yen gained the most against the Euro since it's inception in 1999 - as investors made a flight to safety. The dramatic turnaround comes of the heels of the Euro reaching it's record high against the dollar of 1.6036 only this July. The Yen strengthened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as global economic weakness led investors to unwind carry trades. The weakness in commodities, which constitute over half of their exports, also weighed on the AUD and NZD. Global Rate Cuts The Federal Reserve lowered it's target lending rate by a half percentage point to 1% - the lowest since June 2004 and equal to the level of the Eisenhower administration of the 1950's. With the benchmark fed funds rate at 1% it is second only to Japan's key rate of 0.3% as the lowest among industrial nations. The BOJ lowered it's target lending rate from 0.5 to 0.3% on Friday. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to 4% on November 6th when it announces it's decision. Sterling dropped 9.7% in October - the largest decline since George Soros drove the currency out of Europe's system of linked exchange rates in 1992. ECB president Trichet said policy makers may announce a rate cut this week - putting further pressure on the Euro. Employment Report The Employment Report set to be released this Friday is widely expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs in October. Economists are also expecting an unemployment rate of 6.3%, the highest since 2003. While the Dow rallied 11% last week, it lost 14% for the month. The S&P declined 16.9% for the month - it's largest loss since 1987. The strength in the USD is a double edged sword - it usually means lower long term interest rates and cheaper prices for goods imported to the US. However the appreciation in the USD makes exported American goods more expensive in markets outside the US. Unfortunately, the USD strength reflects a flight to safety rather than a robust US economy.

Looking at the daily NZD/USD we can see pressure building along the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle -beneath we have support at the double bottom in the 0.7369 area - adding to the bear case we are trading below the 200 period SMA and selling momentum is strong as reflected in RSI. Analysis By TradersLog.com

GBP/USD has broken the major downtrendline and rallied to the 50% level of the recent downmove. RSI remains bullish. The next major 50% retracement level is at 202.61. Analysis By TradersLog.com

Thanks folks - I have heard other reports of the Oanda SMA's not being accurate also

Price having broken out from the trend channel as shown on the daily chart continues to make higher highs. Meanwhile RSI has been making lower highs, suggesting a possible trend reversal. Support should exist along the upper trend channel line (formerly resistance). Analysis By TradersLog.com

Looking at the daily GBP/JPY we can see that we are trading close to support at the 38% fibonacci level and Senkou Span Line. We are bullishly trading above the Kumo (cloud) and we received a normal strenth buy signal when the Tenkan-Sen crossed above the Kijun-Sen from below within the Kumo. The signal would have been stronger if the crossover had taken place above the Kumo. To the upside we have major resistance at the 50% retracement level, 216.63. Analysis By TradersLog.com

Regular divergence between price and a momentum oscillator such as RSI indicate a possible trend reversal. The scenario of price making lower lows along with the oscillator is making higher lows is described as regular bullish divergence - suggesting a bullish trend reversal. The daily charts of EUR/AUD and USD/MXN have recently exhibited regular bullish divergence: and Analysis By TradersLog.com

I worked briefly at the interbank desk at ABN AMRO and the traders did look at charts and take technicals such as fibonacci levels into account.

Although momentum has slowed down on the daily chart, the 50 and 200 SMA's appear poised to cross over with further movement to the upside (golden cross). We have resistance to the upside at 108.58 and support rising underneath with the up trendline that forms the bottom of the channel as shown on the chart. Looking for bullish follow through if the recent resistance at 108.58 can be violated and the 50 and 200 SMA's cross. Analysis By TradersLog.com

It's an attractive technical chart as I type this - GBP/USD pressed against resistance of the major down trendline and 200 SMA. On the daily chart the oscillators are bullish across the board and we are trading above the daily pivot of 1.9684. If the aforementioned downtrendline/SMA resistance can be violated I would expect the 50% retracement level of 1.9872 to come into play. Analysis By TradersLog.com

Looking at the USD/JPY daily chart we can see a nice channel guiding price upwards: Price currently trading around the pivot, contained within S1 and R1: Ichimoku chart looks bullish -trading above the Kumo and following the bullish Tenkan/Kijun crossover:

Looking at the daily USD/JPY we are right up against the down trendline and the 61.8% fibonacci level: