UrmaBlume

More Debka: "According to debkafile's Iranian sources, Tehran is preparing an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, much like the test carried out by North Korea in 2006. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the noise and fury raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran's fortified, subterranean Fordo site near Qom. All the sanctions imposed so far for halting Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon have had the reverse effect, stimulating rather than cooling its eagerness to acquire a bomb. Yet, according to a scenario prepared by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University for the day after an Iranian nuclear weapons test, Israel was resigned to a nuclear Iran and the US would offer Israel a defense pact while urging Israel not to retaliate. As quoted by the London Times Monday, Jan. 1, INSS experts, headed by Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, deduced from a simulation study they staged last week that. Their conclusion is that neither the US nor Israel will use force to stop Iran's first nuclear test which they predicted would take place in January 2013. Our Iranian sources stress, however, that Tehran does not intend to wait for the next swearing-in of a US president in January 2013, whether Barack Obama is returned for a second term or replaced by a Republican figure, before moving on to a nuclear test. Iran's Islamist rulers have come to the conclusion from the Bush and Obama presidencies that America is a paper tiger and sure to shrink from attacking their nuclear program – especially while the West is sunk in profound economic distress. debkafile's sources stress that both Tehran and the INSS are wrong: The Tel Aviv scenario is the work of a faction of retired Israeli security and intelligence bigwigs who, anxious to pull the Netanyahu government back from direct action against the Islamic Republic, have been lobbying for the proposition that Israel can live with a nuclear-armed Iran. Our Washington sources confirm, however, that President Obama considers the risk of permitting a nuclear-armed Iran to be greater than the risks of military action. Monday, Jan. 9, top administration officials said that developing a nuclear weapon would cross a red line and precipitate a US strike. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta: "If Iran takes the step to develop a nuclear weapon or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to be stopped." He was repeating the warnings of the past month made by himself and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff. Gen. Martin Dempsey. As for Israel, Dennis Ross, until recently senior adviser to President Obama, reiterated in a Bloomberg interview on Jan. 10: "No one should doubt that President Barack Obama is prepared to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon if sanctions and diplomacy fail." As for Israel, Ross said: "I wouldn't discount the possibility that the Israelis would act if they came to the conclusion that basically the world was prepared to live with Iran with nuclear weapons," he said. "They certainly have the capability by themselves to set back the Iranian nuclear program." Israel's media screens and front pages are dominated these days by short-lived, parochial political sensations and devote few words to serious discourse on such weighty issues as Iran's nuclear threat. This is a luxury that the US president cannot afford in an election year. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb and conduct of a nuclear test would hurt his chances of a second term. The race is therefore on for an American strike to beat Iran's nuclear end game before the November 2012 presidential vote. The INSS have also wrongly assessed Russia's response to an Iranian nuclear test as "to seek an alliance with the US to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region." This fails to take into account that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, running himself for a third term as president in March, has already committed Moscow to a new Middle East policy which hinges on support for a nuclear Iran and any other Middle East nation seeking a nuclear program. This is part of Russia's determined plan to trump America's Arab Spring card."

Latest Debka: "Thousands of US troops began descending on Israel this week. Senior US military sources told debkafile Friday, Jan. 6 that many would be staying up to the end of the year as part of the US-IDF deployment in readiness for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict. They will be joined by a US aircraft carrier. The warplanes on its decks will fly missions with Israeli Air Force jets. The 9,000 US servicemen gathering in Israel in the coming weeks are mostly airmen, missile interceptor teams, marines, seamen, technicians and intelligence officers. The incoming American soldiers are officially categorized as participants in Austere Challenge 12, the biggest joint US-Israeli war game ever held. The maneuver was originally designated Juniper Stallion 2012. However, the altered name plus the comment heard from the exercise's commander, US Third Air Force Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, during his visit two weeks ago, that the coming event is more a "deployment" than an "exercise," confirmed that Washington has expanded its mission. The joint force will now be in place ready for a decision to attack Iran's nuclear installations or any war emergency. Our sources disclose that it was decided at the last minute in Washington and Jerusalem to announce the forthcoming Austere Challenge 12 on Thursday night, Jan. 5, ahead of the bulletin released by Tehran about another Iranian naval exercise at the Strait of Hormuz to take place in February, although its 10-day drill in the same arena only ended Monday, Jan. 2. The early release was decided in consultations among US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the two army chiefs, US Gen. Martin Dempsey and Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz. British Defense Minister Phillip Hammond, on a visit to Washington, was brought into the discussion. The handout circulated to US correspondents from Hammond's talks in the US capital affirmed that Britain stands ready to strike Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. However, that phrase was omitted from the British minister's remarks at a news conference, following a last-minute request from Panetta, signifying the Obama administration's interest of keeping a low profile on plans for attacking Iran. Tehran too is walking a taut tightrope. It is staging military's maneuvers every few days to assuring the Iranian people that its leaders are fully prepared to defend the country against an American or Israeli strike on its national nuclear program. By this stratagem, Iran's ground, sea and air forces are maintained constantly at top war readiness to thwart any surprise attack. The joint US-Israeli drill will test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems against incoming missiles and rockets, according to the official communiqué. debkafile's military sources add that they will also practice intercepting missiles and rockets coming in from Syria, Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It will not be the first time a US aircraft carrier docks in Israel for joint operations with the Israeli Air Force. On June 9, 2010, the USS Truman dropped anchor opposite Israel to test a joint deployment against Iran and its allies. The carrier and its air and naval strike force then staged joint firing practices with the Israeli Air Force over the Negev in the South. Washington and Jerusalem are doing their utmost to present a perfectly synchronized military front against Iran: American officers are stationed at IDF command centers and Israeli officers posted at the US European Command-EUCOM. At the same time, debkafile's military sources disclose that full consensus has not been reached on every last particular of shared operation against Iran, should one go forward."

Seems like the situation in the Middle East just keeps on getting hotter and hotter. Again from Debka: "The armies of Saudi Arabia and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council states stood ready Thursday Jan. 5, for Washington to stand up to Iranian threats and send an aircraft carrier or several warships through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. Riyadh has been leaning hard on the Obama administration not to let Tehran get away with its warning to react with "full force" if the USS Stennis aircraft carrier tried to reenter the Gulf or Iran's pretensions to control the traffic transiting the world's most important oil route. Wednesday night, the Iranian parliament began drafting a bill prohibiting foreign warships from entering the Gulf without Tehran's permission. debkafile's Washington sources report that Saudi Arabia has warned the Obama administration that Iranian leaders mean what they say; their leaders are bent on provoking a military clash with the United States at a time and place of their choosing, rather than leaving the initiative to Washington. To this end, Iranian officials are ratcheting up their belligerence day after day. Notwithstanding their military inferiority, the Iranians believe they can snatch a measure of success from a military confrontation, just as the Lebanese Hizballah did in the 2006 war against Israel. In any case, they expect any clash to be limited – at least at first. The two sides will begin by feeling for the opposite side's weaknesses while endeavoring to hold the line against a full-blown war. America's failure to rise to Iran's challenge will confirm its rulers in the conviction that the US is a paper tiger and encourage them to press their advantage for new gains. The assessment of British military experts Thursday, Jan. 5, was that the question now is: Who will blink first? Will the US follow through on the Pentagon's assertion that the deployment of US military assets in the Persian Gulf will continue as it has for decades? Or will Iran act on its warnings and block those waters to the entry of American warships? President Barack Obama can't afford to cave in to Iran, especially while campaigning for reelection in Nov. 2012; Tehran, for its part, has made too many threats to easily back down. The entire region is now on tenterhooks for the next move, with US, Iranian and Gulf armies on the highest war alert. American and Iranian war planners both accept that their advantage lies in surprising the enemy – without, however, catapulting the Persian Gulf into a full-dress war. US Navy publications as of Wednesday, Jan. 4 showed a sign of the times: One ran a series of photos of F-18 Super Hornet fighter-bombers standing on the runways of the USS Stennis aircraft carrier ready for takeoff at any moment. Another depicted for the first time ever row upon row of huge bombs in the carrier's hold to show the Iranians what they are taking on. In the view of debkafile’s military sources, the fact that the US has deployed only one large aircraft carrier in the region does not signify any reluctance on Washington's part to preserve the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. There is no longer a need to rush more carriers to a flashpoint in these strategic waters. The US maintains five huge air bases in the Gulf region – two, the Ali Al Salem and Ahmed Al Jaber bases, in Kuwait; the Al Dhafra base in the UAE; and the largest air bases outside the US – Al Adid in Qatar and the Thumrait in Oman. The concentration of aircraft carriers at any given location is no longer treated as the marker of an imminent US military operation."

You are probably right Tams - except sooner than 90 days and not just in the Gulf. Don't forget that since the 1950's Turkey has been a US surrogate in certain covert areas (U2 Flights and the missles that settled the Cuban Crisis) and Syria is Iran's most significant surrogate. From Debka: "Military tensions are building up on Syria's borders. Wednesday, Jan. 4, Turkish military sources reported sighting an Israeli Eitan (Heron) drone in the sky above the Turkish Hawk Brigade 14 stationed on the northern Syrian border at Kirikhan in the Hatay district of southern Turkey. The Israeli drone was said to have hovered over the encampment for four hours. A request by local Turkish officers to fire anti-air missiles to down the Israeli Eitan went unanswered by the Turkish general staff until the drone was gone. According to the Turkish sources, two Turkish F-16 fighter jets were scrambled from the Diyarbakir 2nd Air Force Command Strike Center and stayed overhead as long as the Israeli drone was present. debkafile reports this is the first time Israeli UAV's have been reported monitoring events on the Turkish-Syrian border. On Dec. 16, our sources disclosed 21 Syrian Scud missile launchers had been stationed opposite Hatay province as a warning to Turkey, NATO and Arab forces to stay out of the Syrian uprising. Then, on Dec. 27, our military sources reported that Qatar had organized and funded an airlift to Hatay of Libyan militia fighters under the command of former Abdelhakim Belhaj, ex-al Qaeda and commander of Islamic Fighting Group in Libya-IFG which seized control of Tripoli. He has established a command post in the Turkish town of Antakya (Antioch). The Libyan and Free Syrian Army-FASA fighters are training together in Turkish military camps, the main one being the Hawk Brigade 14 over which the Israeli drone hovered. It is expected to be the main jumping off base for any foreign military intervention in Syria. Across the border meanwhile, Syria continues its military buildup. At the opposite end of Syria, the southern Horan province, fierce battles raged Tuesday, Jan. 4 between Syrian troops and mutineers of the 38th Mechanized Brigade, the bulk of which has gone over to the anti-Assad opposition. Both sides fighting with heavy T-72 tanks and artillery around Sida, a village in the Syrian-Jordanian-Israeli border triangle, suffered dozens of casualties. The 38th Brigade belongs to the 7th Division which is stationed on the Syrian-Israeli border which cuts through the Golan. Sounds of gunfire were clearly heard in Israel. The brigade was the largest military unit to have deserted Bashar Assad's army in the ten-month popular uprising against his regime."

Please sign me up for your room. 172 points in 31 trades with 100% hit rate is remarkable on any day but to have done it on 11/24 which was the Thanksgiving Holiday and the market only traded an abbreviated holiday session makes it even more noteworthy. UrmaBlume

Thanks for noticing and the kind word. Just about 30 minutes after the positive divergence shown above a Negative Price/Net Trade divergence triggered a bot I am testing and you can see the divergence and the 3 entries performed by the bot in the chart below. The topic here is divergence trading, right? Please Click to enlarge image cheers pat

If this Thread is about divergence trading then here is an expample of divergence from just a few minutes ago in today's ES. Regardless of anything else it is a recent chart and it certainly shows a prime example of a divergence setup. Please click to enlarge image

While we trade in much faster time frames than most of the references here, this morning, in ES, there was a classic double positive divergece in both the 8k & 5k volume bar charts. As everybody here knows we believe that divergences between price and the buying and selling forces that propels price can often indicate change. In the middle of the chart below you can see that as price (top window) makes a Lower Low, both the indicator of net trade and the indicator of the moving window of the balance of trade made Higher Lows which is referenced as a double positive divergence. This divergence was verified and duplicated in the 8k chart: Please click to enlarge image UrmaBlume

Here is a chart from this morning's trade in ES. Divergences between price and the buying and selling forces that propels price can often indicate change. In the middle of the chart below you can see that as price (top window) makes a Lower Low, both the indicator of net trade and the indicator of the moving window of the balance of trade made Higher Lows which is referenced as a Double Positive Divergence. Please click to enlarge image UrmaBlume

The chart is a volume bar chart of ES with 8000 contract bars. The top chart contains standard TradeStation Pivots, dots of smoothed price and some special reference dots. The subgraph displays a histogram of a moving window of the balance of trade.The platform is TradeStation. UrmaBlume

For the regulatory, compliance and liability issues already mentioned I can't imagine any software vendor who would do as you ask. If you ever find one please post the links here. Why keep stalking and knocking mine - why not just put me away by posting something better that you wrote/created yourself. Unless of course your price/RSI is the best you can come up with. Again I have, however, provided you with quick and easy access to people who use this software every day, understand it and they would be happy to answer any of your questions and show you how it is traded in real time. But then again it is still easier for you to blah, blah, blah with absolutely no understanding of the subject at hand, just like your price/RSI approach. UrmaBlume

Thanks for the kind words. Certainly you are correct in saying that price, raw price, is different from the treand of raw price but still the trend is calculated from raw price while the calculation of the motivator of price does not include price in any form as part of its inputs. Thus a difference between an object and a force instead of a difference between an object and one of its derivatives. cheers pat

Check out the forum - you will see the calls in real time and maybe, just maybe you will learn something beyond price/RSI divergences.

None of it is for sale it is for lease and the first leases where granted in June of this year. The early posts that you reference were over 3 years ago and after hundreds of requests from this forum alone - I decided to make some bits and pieces of my technical base available to the public. Again for the form over substance bashers - you can find many references for both me and my technologies on this forum. But that assumes you would like to have the sligtest understanding of what you are talking about. They have a very, very inexpensive week long trial and you can ask either the moderator or any of the 80 -120 people in the room their thoughts on me and my gear and even watch the indicators in action, in real time and hear the moderator call trades in real time. Mindless bashing of a threat is always easier than understanding and for some that is their only modus operandi. UrMaBlume

Under the topic, "The Physics of Price," consider that price is an object propelled by a force. With that as a given then a more optimal divergence would be a divergence between the path of the object and the magnitude of the force. What you are talking about is a difference between the object and its path with no consideration of motivation. UrmaBlume

Mysterious? Maybe to you. The algorithms behind Cumuliative Market Delta and moving windows of order flow have been out there for some time. Of course if the total depth of your research has left you with the idea that price/price divergence trading is a "...Trading Strategy - Advanced" then maybe you missed them. Such readily available formulae are only mysterious to "shallow drillers." UrmaBlume

Freddy, Wow, logic, perception and understanding of the facts, the topic and the issues at hand. Plain simple truth is a plus in any discourse - welcome to Trader's Lab. Thanks for the note and the PM with your phone number. If it is convenient with you, I will call you a couple of hours after the open Monday and try and answer your questions. I welcome all honest queries and look forward to speaking with you. cheers Pat

Onesmith, thanks, welcome. That (price - average price) is indeed a reasonable measure of force/volatility - I dispute its efficacy when compared to price vs non price inputs at points of divergence or change. Certainly you are correct when you point out that "Divergence from price based indicators is a statiscally valid measurement of change in trend" The point I am trying to make here is that it is not the divegence of optimal efficacy. Hey Do or Adriana - this is where the discussion should be. Thanks again Onesmith cheers pat

If you check the Terms of Service, Disclosure Statements, Statements of Risk on my sites and the licenses to my products you will find that all of that and more is included. But since your coments are based on zero knowledge of me, my sites or my products you wouldn't already know that. If you check the post you will see that I mentioned that I was managing other traders not other peoples money and if those traders are trading my money there is no regulatory requirement especially if the amount in each account is under a certain threshold but here again if you knew anything about relevant regulations you would already know that. The subject here is supposed to be Divergence trading and from the sum of your posts you seem to know as little about that as you do the other topics you raise. UrMaBlume

Since we believe that it is an imbalance between buying and selling volumes that propels price - when we want to trade currencies we trade either futures and/or etfs and, indeed, our tools are not suited to forex trading. Some of my cusomters have, however, used reads from balance of trade indications from futures contracts to trade forex. The traders I manage do not trade forex at all ever and not just because you can't see volume or any other balance of trade or money flow. Some here know about the "other issues" I am talking about with reference to forex, and some here have no idea. UrmaBlume

Because of liability, SEC and CFTC compliance issues I can't imagine any sensible vendor who would make such claims and know of none who do. Does CQG, TradeStation, Ninja, Market Delta, Think or Swim make such claims? No and they take great care to avoid making any statements that even sound like what your are looking for. I have offered references from those using my tools and offered a site where you can see them in action. My customers are my best reference and, so far, none have complained or asked for refunds. There are 10 indicators in our indicator pack and they are described here and here. I started posting in this thread to discuss different kinds of divergence trading other than sameO, sameO Price/Price divergences and made no mention of my site or my products until Do made it an issue. cheers UrmaBlume

There is a very easy way to find out about me or my indicators. There is a trading room called Trading Addicts. There are usually about 100 members in attendance. While I have no equity or interest in the room, it is operated on my indicators and my indicators alone. Many of the members also use my tools and Eric Utely, the moderator, calls trades in real times and the last time I talked to members of the room Eric had suffered 3 losing days in seven weeks. They have a very inexpensive week long trial, they make money and anybody can ask anybody in the room about me, my indicators or the services I provide. Before you bash me or my products which you know nothing about I ask that you ask the whole room and the moderator about what they think of my character, my service and my products. The reason this thread is about Price/RSI is because the OP knows nothing better. The above text suggests something better and offers a way to verify it in real time by a hundred people with deep experience with me and my tools. I make no apologies for being in the software business or for its success. I have received no complaints or requests for refunds from my customers and here is a way you can talk to some of them who either see or use my gear every day. Not all sofrtware vendors are charlatans and certainly some packages offer more value than others. The fact is that everybody here, including both me and you, buy/lease market related sofrtware products of one kind or another. I say there are much stronger approaches to divergence trading than price/price and above is a way you can get a handful of opinions from profitable traders that see it everyday. UrmaBlume

Anybody with any understanding already knows the code just like they already know the code for Delta Bars. Your "Advanced" strategy isn't and neither is the anti-intellectual nature of your off topic rants. The topic is "Divergence Trading Strategy - Advanced." Why keep the discussion to a decades old approach that has long fallen out of favor and is laughed at by the 3%.

Delta Bars and a moving window of order flow are mysterious black boxes?