UrmaBlume

There was very strong very well coordinated commercial selling in today's (09/17)equity markets which can be seen here. Today in the ES this indicator gave up 3 really good trades, 2 Sells and a Buy, times are PST:

The same selling noted in the previous post happened again at 1224 PST, and again in all 3 markets: In addition this indicator game up 3 great trades today (09/17) which can be seen here

Chris, Thank you very much for the kind words in your PM. 1. We pay no attention to size. We do pay attention to velocities - both accelerations and decelerations - all in the millisecond time frame. 2. All of our traders have at least six screens. This indicator in ES is most always on a 1k chart - it is on a much smaller chart for NQ & YM. While most of our exectutions are in even shorter time frames we post this indicator to the time frame that works best for the particular market and execute in the time frame where we can best take advantage of the information from all our screens.

Thank you Kiwi - I am sorry for whatever I said that set you off and again - thanks. From the thanks, emails, and PMs I get, I do feel I have made a contribution here and I accept your apology, I guess, lol. Some time ago I was lucky enough to spend a few weeks down under. Spent a week diving off Cairns and a week in the bars in Sydney - loved every minute of it. cheers UrmaBlume

Todays trade saw unusually strong, perfectly coordinated selling by commercials in all major US equity markets. At EXACTLY 0828 PST, 1128 EST there was very strong, computer based technical selling in the S&P Futures, The Dow Future and the NASDAQ 100 future. I can verify that this selling was coordinated down to the millisecond. Here are the 3 screenshots that tell the story:

Today's much stronger than normal selling by commercials in the NASDAQ 100 is noted is a screen shot below. While there is debate about the worth of cumulative market delta, the market delta footprint and pools of liquidity, NONE of them have anything to do with the dynamics that form the local extremes noted by this indicator. This trade is not about someone responding to a liquidity pool it is about a response that simply overwhelms local trade. In the most liquid instruments this is usually a computer driven response to a price trigger.

Attached is 5 yrs daily data for ES in a comma delimited file which can easily be imported into almost any spreadsheet or db. cheers DailyES.txt

MtnDog, We found no really noteworty spikes at the time you mentioned. An hour or so later at 1238 your time and 0938 PST there was a really obvious buy spike that completely nailed the session low (09/11) as shown in the chart below. You can see a report on the whole day's activity here.

Every day we do a market report and in today's (09/11) we posted a couple of quotes from this article posted to CNNMoney: "Corporate officers and directors have been selling shares at a pace last seen just before the onset of the subprime malaise two years ago." "Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys" Insider selling at record levels is noteworthy. Not much use as far as timing goes, but certainly noteworthy.

Taken a half hour before today's close (09/09) this indicator again found the session's extremes. Taken from this report here is the activity on the session low, just after the open Here is the session high (so far) some 4 hours later

Today in reply to this thread a very astute poster noted his feelings about Market Profile as "This is really great stuff, thanks for even posting Urma. I've read every article and book there is relating to Market Profile and knew that it was just the start of being on the right track. The next step was to throw away most of it because it leads to nowheresville. But what's left is the beginning of market understanding. While this thread is about the technical Evolution of Market Profile theory and some of the technologies that have been developed by me and others that are based on Market Profile theory, most of our in-house traders have moved on from the Profile Graphic. We do have at least one die hard who keeps one of his 8 screens on 30 minute profiles. This pic is taken from a recent update to a market report that shows these 30 minute structures as they reflect the strong buying in the first couple of hours of today's (09/09) trade that propelled price to new highs. The structures cover 30 minutes each and the Dots show the net buying or selling in each structure as read from the index on the left. Each structure shown reflects net buying:

clmacdougall, How very astute of you and what great words. My feeling about Market Profile and everything I learned from Peter Steidlmayer is exactly the same as yours. Indeed my study of Market Profile formed the foundation of my market understanding and is the basis of almost all of our technical development. Here is a thread that I started to report on and provoke thoughts on - the technical evolution of Market Profile Theory. Also thank you for the kind words. As to book recommendations, I am in the process of finishing 2 that my publisher is nagging me for and I will be happy to recommend once they are done. "Practical Short Term Trading - Techniques & Technologies" will be out next. My first published book was on the odds, proabilities and practical application of game theory in poker. Several on this thread have already outed me as the author. A couple of our in-house traders are old profile buffs and still leave one of thier 8 screens on this shot of 30 minute profiles. This shot is of the first 2 hours of trade in today's (09/09) trade in ES and shows the buying that has propelled price to new highs. The Blue/Red Dots (Blue - Buying, Red - Selling), these are all Blue, report the Net Buying and Selling inside each of these structures as read from the Index on the Left of the chart. This pic is taken from a market report that is updated throughout the session.

ZDO, We have had very good luck in moving our work to different markets. While we haven't yet moved these indices to other markets (Certain ETF's are next), our Intensity indicator transfers well to every market we have tried. Here are four spikes taken from trade in yesterday's (09/08) trade in the 10yr Notes and an older pic of SoyBeans:

I think it is because there are less cross currents in trading in the financials as compared to the equities that cause our intensity spikes to stand out so well. Here are four spikes from today's (09/08) trading in the Notes:

Today's trade was completely confined by Nite Session Support and Nite Session Resistance. A complete report is here. And here is a shot of today's low - prefectly foretold by commercial intensity

Thank you very much for the query. None of our indicators are available to the public. What you see here are the tools we use to train our in-house traders. Our trading tools are based on intelligent agents and you will never see their charts posted anywhere. Success in this arena is about one thing. Goldman pays hundreds of millions for it, we seek more of it, and everybody here shoud aspire to develop it and that is -INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL. We post here for 2 reasons 1) to try and get new, smart, beginning traders to think outside the box and to 2) try and spot startling new talent and other resourses. cheers

Today's abbreviated holiday trading may have revealed something about commercial sentiment for the rest of the week. Here is a cut and past of our Daily Market Report for today's holiday trading: Today's Market Report - ES - 09/07/2009 Archive of Daily Market Reorts (Please Scroll Down to See Today's Entire Report) Today's Numbers Labor Day - No Secheduled Releases ****** At 0430 PST Price, in Holiday Trading, found buying at 1,013.00 and just under 1,015.00 Price continued UP and endountered Resistance at the 1,019.75 level as shown in the chart below. The HUD reflects this buying and the much lower than normal Holiday Volume HUD reflects some buying and very low volume There was continued Buying throughout this abbreviated Holiday Session This next chart shows the buying and also a zone of consolidation and NNT which gave an EARLY signal of the breakout up This show shows the period of consolidation shown above as well as 2 small Intensity Sell Spikes that signaled a couple of local highs

John, While it's true Las Columbianas son sabrosas, in Panama Las Nicaraguensas son mejor. Oh how I miss the AnchonInn in Panama City and in Colon the Bar at the Washington and the Flamingo. cheers

"Perhaps I might have misread some of your previous posts then. So is trader commitment usually discovered during these intensity spikes and if it is, are you looking for orders or groups of orders that appear to be of a large size? intensity and commitment are not registered the same and for us, transaction size is not a consideration What would help constitute that a trade is considered long term vs non long term? Based on what you have said your roots started with MP, so does some of this tie into initiative and responsive traders who are making their movies inside our outside specific value areas? whether it is intensity or balance of trade one of the issues with the profile graphic has always been that it can not be seen when it is inside the value area - no so with our gear" I would have to assume, that the portion of the right of the HUD would represent some sort of buying/selling pressure for a given time period (i.e. overnight) based on the cumulative pressure that occurred during these different time frames. it is a bit more than that - it is the percentage of normal commitment for the period noted above and normalized for both bias and time of day

Dave, Thanks for the query. We pay no attention to ticks. We pay attention to buy and sell volumes and classify them in several different ways. All of the trade in an intensity spike does not necessarily get added into what we call "longer term commitments by commercials." cheers

I have known Mark for more than a decade. His site is Jurik Research and posted on that site is his phone of 719-686-0074. He has always been very giving of his time. As I mentioned before we have found no better utility to smooth data than his JMA. The JMA can be also used to build such indicators as RSI, MACD, Stochastic, etc., that are much smoother and with less lag. cheers

Great shot of down locking. Obviously you are a powerboat (stinkpot) guy. For me, I am a rag man:

Christopher, Thank you very much for the kind words. FYI another week and summer heat in Vegas will be well on its way. Should be very nice at your place by the water. While we still remain between nite support and nite resistance as shown in the chart below I would not preclude a late sell-off. The second chart shows the intensity spikes that occurred around the low at 0720 PST/Vegas time. Updates to these charts are posted regularly you know where.

Because we feel that an indication of the direction of the next 20 - 50 points in ES is forming now we posted a report on this mornings activity. Here is an excerpt from that report: Today's number of filings for state jobless benefits was 570,000 - bigger than the expected 550k A measure of the services industry, ISM Services, will be released at 1000 EST The Institute for Supply Management reported at 1000 a greater than expected improvement in the US services sector ***** The Nite Session found support at 993.00 and selling slightly above 1003.00 This screen capture of our HUD was taken 30 minutes before today's Open This chart shows Trade in ES 45 minutes after the open. Prices are down from the open but still between Nite Suppor and Nite Resistance The ISM announcement enhances downward bias

Today's (09/02) trade in ES was very slow indeed - Considerably less than average volume and less than half of the normal range. In spite of that these spikes still pointed to the 2 best trades of the day. The first occurred on the session low at 0731+ PST and the second a sell near session highs at 1219 PST. Both are shown below: