UrmaBlume

Christopher, Thanks for the very kind words and your very well thought out analysis. The only caveats I see are that there are still very large pools of uncommited cash and that interest rates are so low that a significant portion of that cash will go to the market no matter what it is doing at the time. The other caveat is that the very few fund managers I am in touch with that run over a billion have ALL learned the perils of longer term and have greatly shortened their trade horizons - turnover can mitigate risk. You will be happy to know that it has finally cooled off here in Vegas - great time for your place at the lakes. cheers

Day Summary WOW While the Dollar may soon be worth a Dime Stocks are headed to Heaven

Almost every day the extreme you would most like to trade is established during overnight trading. Last night at 0400 PST there was strong coordinated selling across all three US Equity Futures as you can see in the chart below. The second chart bleow shows an overlay of the nite session in red and the day session in blue. Notice how on most days the most desirable trade location for the session is shown in red which means it happened BEFORE the open of the day session.

At 0400 there was strong coordinated selling in all 3 US Equity Futures. So far today that high is still holds.

Today's Market Report - ES - 10/14/2009 Archive of Daily Market Reorts Most recent update is on top. Please Scroll Down to See Today's Entire Report *** Today's Numbers 0830 EST Export Prices, Import Prices, Retail Sales 1000 Business Inventories 1400 - FOMC Minutes ************ This is the day that just might tell Whether the markets are going to heaven or straight to hell **** On earnings and the expectation of earnings price has broken out to new highs for the year. At an hour and a half before the open night volume is 172% of average with only an average buy bias and Net New Commercial Trade of +8,234 contracts.

Day Summary Today's price action was bound by the open. Trade today was on less than average volume, less than average range and with a sell bias. Net New Trade by commercials was -42,352 contracts.

What Browns said - In Spades. Another thing about every other forum I have found - The content here is richer and the managment is better. Thanks James.

At almost 3 hours into the session buying around 1,064 has propelled price to new session highs. In the Chart below you can see the spikes of intense commercial buying at 0701 & 0725 PST Volume remains below average and the day bias remains slightly negative

As the maket makes new session lows see the selling reflected by the HUD

No Numbers Today Lots of Numbers Tomorrow Export Prices, Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories FOMC Minutes AT 2 hours before the open Overnight price remained below yesterday's high and was supported at 1,068. Volume was about average with a noted buy bias This shot of the 900,000 contract bar chart shows price finding acceptance in this "zone of selling"

Trading on just over half of average volume and within just over half of average daily range price found good support at the session open of 1,062 and rallied to new local highs at 1,068.50. The 900,000 contract bar chart shown below well locates the longer term sellers and the longer term buyers. Money flow shows an up action. The question from price here among the sellers is will the money strength exceed the strength shown at 1,075.75 on 09/23.

Cory, Thanks for the kind words. When you mentioned "evolution outside of the old concepts/methods" you might be putting concepts and methods in the same bin. The concepts as taught by Peter in the early 80's were about order flow, locating commercial trade, responsive trade, initiating trade, rejection and most important of all the balance of trade. All of these I put in the concept bin. TPO's, Value Area, VAH, VAL and WVAP all go in the method bin. Peter's early seminars were much more about understanding the concepts than implementing the trades. A couple of his early students, namely Jim Dalton and Kevin Koy, declared themselves masters of the concepts and started putting out material more about their idea of methods than Peter's idea of concepts. The whole basis of the market profile graphic is that time at price should approximate volume at price. The basis of TPO counts is responsive vs initiating trade. The idea was that if TPO's accumulate in the upper part of the value area it is the result of the responsive seller being in charge at that area of price. Then there was no online volume not to mention any way to break that volume down into buying and selling volumes or into responsive or initiating trade. The weaknesses of the profile graphic when it comes to practical application/METHOD today are: 1. No accurate way to measure commercail participation until after the close. 2. No way to note/locate locally intense commercial activity within the value area. 3. No precision in the calculation/presentation of total volume, buying volume, selling volume, order flow or the balance of trade. Progress/Evolution for market profile practioners is about tools, technologies and protocols that 1)Do a better job of more accurately measuring commercial activity in real time 2) Precisely locate locally intense commercial activity withing the value area and 3) more precisely calculate/present and locate total volume, buying volume, selling volume, order flow and the balance of trade than does the market profile graphic. Our indicators of Commercial Intensity, Net New Commercial Trade, Harmonic of Trade, etc., are all based on our effort to take the practical application of market profile theory beyond the capabilities of the market profile graphic. As an old man who has seen all of this evolve from the perspectives of a retail trader, commercial trader, brokerage managment, premium arbitrageur, high-tech trader and trade decision support technologies developer over the last 3 decades some observations are that: The Strengths of today's beginning trader are that he is smarter, more well-educated and has access to better data and technologies than in the past. The passion is equal as w/o passion players are quickly eliminated both then and now. One weakness of tody's up and comers is a rush to method without a firm foundation in the basic concepts of how markets work and what drives price. Whether it is on this board, the markets or a poker table, when there is opportunity, fear, greed, risk, reward or personal face involved - everybody gets a little naked. Here my bet is on those who come here to learn, discuss, contribute and grow and not on those who are here as a path to quick and easy money. The tone of the posts is a great classifier - some are positive, responsive, inquisitive, offer help and make contributions and others are negative, personal, never contribute and leech code. Makes it easy to pick the winners. Only a very few will succeed and what separates that very small percentage from the rest of them is not about financial resources it is about attitude and intellectual capital. And Cory, from our phone calls and your notes and posts and while I think you have a bit of a journey in front of you I think you have the attitude and proper capital to be one of those who make the trip. cheers

Cory, Thanks for the kind words. When you mentioned "evolution outside of the old concepts/methods" you might be putting concepts and methods in the same bin. The concepts as taught by Peter in the early 80's were about order flow, locating commercial trade, responsive trade, initiating trade, rejection and most important of all the balance of trade. All of these I put in the concept bin. TPO's, Value Area, VAH, VAL and WVAP all go in the method bin. Peter's early seminars were much more about understanding the concepts than implementing the trades. A couple of his early students, namely Jim Dalton and Kevin Koy, declared themselves masters of the concepts and started putting out material more about their idea of methods than Peter's idea of concepts. Kevin and Peter were once partners, the stories about their breakup have caused some to hold Kevin in perpetual disrespect. The whole basis of the market profile graphic is that time at price should approximate volume at price. The basis of TPO counts is responsive vs initiating trade. The idea was that if TPO's accumulate in the upper part of the value area it is the result of the responsive seller being in charge at that area of price. Then there was no online volume not to mention any way to break that volume down into buying and selling volumes or into responsive or initiating trade. The weaknesses of the profile graphic when it comes to practical application/METHOD today are: 1. No accurate way to measure commercail participation until after the close.

At three hours into the session this chart shows the negative divergence between price and Net Money Flow that occurred as price made new highs.

Certainly something - but not the house. The house looks entirely different from anything I have or will ever post here. cheers

Browns, As I mentioned before the indicators we post here are not the tools we use for our in-house trading. They are some of the tools we use for in-house training. All of my partners are pissed that I post as much as I do. cheers

At an hour and a half into the day session price remains between nite session support and resistance. This shot of the Market HUD reflects much lower than average volume, mixed commitment and a slight negative bias.

Today's Numbers: 0830 EST International Trade Balance. At 3 hours before the open the market trades between yesterday's seller at 1,067 and tests the late support seen at yesterday's opening price of 1,061. This shot of the Market HUD shows slightly above average volume and a sell bias:

Several here have come very close and have working indicators. They report that their versions have really helped their trading. Also the graphs you see are but one of 3 ways, that we know of, to present that same information. The algorithm is in this description - ""When taken in combination, the acceleration and deceleration of buying and selling volumes, total volume and the velocity/rate of change in the balance of trade reveal a certain dynamic that we find present at many, if not most, intra-session extremes." Another clue is that there is more than one data feed involved. Some of what makes this game of ours truely great is that one needs no license, no permisision or approval from anybody and there are infinite ways to be hugely successful. You don't even need huge capital - all you have to be is right and if you are right you wont be little for long. This kind of trading is very leveraged and there is unlimited capital available for those with practical working protocols. The challenge is that very few ever get there. The limiting factor is not money or equipment it is intellectual capital. cheers

Cory, Slow down a bit mate. I value everything I have learned about market profile and market profile theory. It is just that we have found it to be a better market theory than it is a method of trading. We believe that today's data streams, data processing and certain intelligent agents now make it possible to more precisely define such values as the location of intense commercial beyond the day time-frame trade, the balance of order flow and the velocity of trade, rejection and everything else Peter taught was important to predicting price as far back as 1980. Everybody here is familiar with the "public" version of our measure of the location and intensity of commercial trade. The balance of trade is demonstrated in our NetMoneyKG, Net New Commercial Trade, MoneyHarmonicKG and the pie charts on the HUD. The velocity of trade is demonstrated on the HUD and calculated with millisecond granularity. The next step you ask about is to be better able to more precisely calculate the variables that Peter so rightly taught us are valuable in predicting future price and define a trading protocol based on those inputs that is operative in the widest possible range of markets, instruments and time frames. cheers cheers

Day Summary Today's action located selling at 1,066 - 1,067, Support at 1,061 and a Strong Buyer at 1,057 Today's summary is the technical anatomy of the session. The first graph shows 3 technically significant points in price and time Point #1 is the session low, #2 is the session high and Point #3 demonstrates late support on the opening pirce. The following 3 charts demonstrate the buying or selling that defined that particular point Point #1 is the session low. Strong commercial buying at 0700 nad 0707 PST combined to form the low. Point #2 is the Session High which was formed between 0927 - 0931 PST by the stong comercial selling as shown below. Point #3 deomonstrates the stronger than expected buying that formed late support at the opening price.

At 2 hours into the session price tests the Nite Session Selling. At 0700 & 0707 PST there was intense commercial buying that has established an area of strong support.

We like it. The more granular the data the better. We have several different indicators of the intensity of commercial trade. We don't think the changes will have meaningful impact on any of them. The net result is that the data is more granular and time stamps are still in the millisceond time frame - should be a +. cheers

Today's Numbers 0830 EST Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1000 EST Wholesale Inventories ************ An earnings release on the close yesterday drove price up to 1,065.75 where price found a seller. At 0659 PST on 09/29 at exactly 1,065.75 the market found selling that drove price down over 50 pts. Double Top?

From this report and as the market makes new lows in the nite session: "1 hour before the Open this shot of the Market Heads Up Display HUD shows Net Selling of -6,357 contracts on average volume with a sell bias. Trade remains between nite support at 1,048 and resistance of 1,054. Longer term resisntance is at yesterday's high of just above4 1,056, we think that will hold with new session lows in the forecast for today." This shot of the HUD reflects average volume and a selling bias: