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Everything posted by atto
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Yeah, this isn't possible. A much better solution is opening the image (full size) in a new window (like the old chat).
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In lieu of a working history, Db wanted to see Jw's and mine morning conversation. It strongly refers to Hlm's and mine from yesterday, which you guys will probably hear more of soon. ----------- [08:40:26] That One Guy: i was pissed i missed you and hlms conversation [08:40:34] atto: heh, yeah [08:40:41] That One Guy: arguments of the trading elites [08:40:58] atto: Well, I'm digging into the *why* behind his concept. Why a swing vwap would coincide with s/r [08:41:03] atto: Which it appears it does. [08:41:11] That One Guy: yeah [08:41:16] That One Guy: very often [08:41:44] atto: But it's not that the vwap causes s/r, or gives s/r. It coincides, because s/r is only given by traders protecting prices [08:41:56] atto: So the question behind it is why they would value that calculated value. [08:42:04] That One Guy: yeah [08:42:08] atto: The same questions can be applied to any s/r methodology [08:42:15] That One Guy: why does sup and res form anyway [08:42:24] That One Guy: if its done by bigger traders [08:42:28] atto: Which is truely interesting by itself. [08:42:28] That One Guy: why do that value that area? [08:42:43] That One Guy: to i say f**k why [08:42:54] That One Guy: if i can find it consitient [08:42:59] atto: For instance, the Wyckoff form of s/r I use is based on areas traders see value in (which isn't too far from the concept of vwaps) [08:43:13] atto: Prices where sellers and buyers have entered. [08:43:19] That One Guy: yeah [08:43:30] atto: So, it logically follows that those prices are important to some people. Hence horizontal s/r. [08:43:39] That One Guy: i veiw vwap as just the most general area where traders are involved [08:43:41] atto: Which is why Db doesn't like to call trendlines and the such as s/r [08:43:42] That One Guy: dpending on the tf [08:43:59] System: dadacomputers has entered the room Trading Room [08:44:04] That One Guy: im finding things like flips [08:44:20] That One Guy: with horizontal s/r [08:44:21] atto: My real question, regarding vwaps, is why would a lot of traders (sufficient to turn price) be interested in that price. It's the net average, sure. But there isn't a large group of traders that entered at that price anyways. [08:44:28] That One Guy: sometimes we never reach the flip point [08:44:39] That One Guy: and it often coincides with the vwap flip [08:45:06] That One Guy: yeah i see what you are saying [08:45:08] atto: But that's something we'll work through. [08:45:19] atto: Hlm wanted me to detail the truths I believe behind my method. [08:45:59] atto: I'm of the belief that all successful methodologies based on price have some fundamental truth that exists outside of price. Example: the concepts of support/resistance [08:46:02] atto: Protecting prices [08:46:07] atto: "Value" (however you define that) [08:46:22] atto: Etc [08:46:27] That One Guy: yeah [08:46:40] atto: Generally, these truths are the same thing, from different views [08:46:42] System: DbPhoenix has entered the room Trading Room [08:46:52] atto: However, one must understand them before moving on. [08:47:11] atto: Which is why I'm more interested in the *why* than *how*. The *how* becomes trivial if the why is understood. [08:47:18] System: jasont has entered the room Trading Room [08:47:23] atto: Err, possibly not trivial, but much simpler. [08:47:27] DbPhoenix: Hey, atto [08:47:29] That One Guy: yeah i see [08:47:29] atto: Hey [08:47:44] atto: So I'm just digging as to what that is.. what causes it to work. [08:47:48] DbPhoenix: Does the history not exist for those who've just logged on? [08:47:57] atto: Db, unfortunately, history is bugged [08:48:06] That One Guy: i say form your own ideas behind why [08:48:11] atto: I'll copy this mornings, but it's basically just about yesterday afternoons. [08:48:18] That One Guy: if it makes you confident [08:48:21] That One Guy: in what you see [08:48:23] DbPhoenix: Too bad. Sounds like an interesting conversation. But don't repeat it all. [08:48:24] atto: Jw, yeah. He wanted me to detail mine, and he'll relate to it. [08:48:26] That One Guy: who cares how true it is [08:48:32] atto: Db, I'll copy it to a file and send it to you [08:48:43] DbPhoenix: ok [08:48:48] DbPhoenix: Or maybe to the group. [08:48:49] That One Guy: thats what i dont understand about many experience traders are the arguments that happen [08:48:51] atto: Well, truth matters. Else, you run into problems of hoping in something that has no base. [08:48:53] atto: Db, k [08:49:01] That One Guy: people make money in so many different ways
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Predicting Breakouts - Accumulation/Distribution
atto replied to UrmaBlume's topic in Technical Analysis
Okay, so it seems calculating volume of waves isn't how you do it (as that uses price). I asked before, but the post may have been overlooked: Mind sharing what you are looking at for measuring up/down volume (as you said before, it isn't at bid/ask)? I don't think this little bit of information would threaten your trading systems in the least, and would probably help some of us follow what you're doing further. Thanks -
Personally, I wouldn't have, as I give a little more room for retraces. For those kinds of moves, my stops and scale outs are on broken S/R (so just horizontal stepping). I'm absent from chat today due to a hectic schedule, I'll see you guys tomorrow.
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Depending on what you're looking at, I don't think that would be overkill, but it certainly would never show up on my 1m chart. Think of it this way: if that chart was a daily, those "stalking" lines could possibly be trend lines for the intraday traders. It all depends on what you care to pay attention to. The purpose of trend and s/d lines (imho) is to keep you on the right side of a trend (however big or small it is, you pick). If you're trading the squiggle, your "stalking" lines may help, and once broken, may provide a countertrend long. However, if you're not looking for those kinds of moves, then you wouldn't benefit that much from using those tight lines.
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Hm, is the chat stored in a the database? If so, you could make a rather simple interface that simply dumps the recent messages. It would be a history like the old one (downloadable, scrollable, text based, etc), and wouldn't be all that complicated.
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For anyone who's interested in chatting tomorrow, the direct link to the new platform is: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/flashcoms/videochat/server/php/videochat.php?roomId=RoomID&uid=UID&langId=LanguageID
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For some reason, it seems as though replies (not sure about new threads, I guess we'll see when I submit this) are forwarding the user back to the posting screen, as if the post wasn't submitted. The page gives an error that replies must wait 15 seconds, so somewhere in the code, it's trying to reply twice. The original post is submitted, however, but this could become very confusing to someone who didn't realize what's going on (and they could end up waiting 15 seconds, and submitting again). Is this just me? edit: It did not do it for new threads.
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If the chat link is still down at market open, I plan on still using the new chat platform using the direct link (given that it's up and working). http://www.traderslaboratory.com/flashcoms/videochat/server/php/videochat.php?roomId=RoomID&uid=UID&langId=LanguageID If this is down, the link to the old platform is here. See you guys tomorrow.
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How about just making it a normal link for now, as that seems to work just fine? http://www.traderslaboratory.com/flashcoms/videochat/server/php/videochat.php?roomId=RoomID&uid=UID&langId=LanguageID
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Predicting Breakouts - Accumulation/Distribution
atto replied to UrmaBlume's topic in Technical Analysis
Okay, so let's dig here, as this seems to be the base of most of your developments. How are you measuring buying vs selling pressure? This is important, because it is quite obviously not bid/ask differences, so must be a different angle. The number of contracts sold is the exact same as bought in all situations, so you're obviously measuring pressure using something similar to bid/ask. Possibly price movement (buying pressure = on uptick, selling pressure = on downtick)? -
I think that's what he meant. Very low time bars (seen through a small "time" indication) would indicate very fast orders coming in. Something else to look in would be the derivative of that, as you'd get the change as it develops.
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Excellent thread. mat and Db have done a very good job at annotating the chart, so I don't think I can add much there. Think of price as a flowing river. Bars simple summarize what the river did during a time interval (or tick/volume/range/etc), so don't try to give further significance to them than that. The only bar who's open and close may matter are daily charts, because there is an actual open/close of trading. Db's suggestion of a line chart helps to minimize focus of "bars", and focus on how price moves (and how it responds to different volume).
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I'll post my thoughts later on this, as it is potentially an interesting idea. Besides the motivations question (since you aren't selling), I think you have misread Hlm. He's contributed quite a lot to TL, both in the forums and especially in live chat. Let's try to keep this civil, and about your concept of trade intensity, rather than launch personal attacks. I can vouch that he knows his stuff and very frequently is helping other traders. Speaking of live chat, we'd love if you could drop in during market hours (the TL chat link is on the navigation bar at the top). While we couldn't see exactly what you're talking about, as you use very expensive and fast data feeds, you could show examples of your premise and discuss with other traders (we usually have 15-16 in the morning US session).
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It's an addiction, and I'm not camping
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Incredibly interesting. Looks like all sectors except for financials found S where it might be expected (and financials moving opposite may be largely news based).
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Anyone Having Problem Viewing Picture?
atto replied to JeremyGoh's topic in Announcements and Support
Whoa, I missed that TL got hacked (you must have handled it well ). Sorry about that, I know that can be a giant headache. -
Here's what I just said in chat, for anyone who likes to follow along: [09:13:44] atto: mat, I haven't finished it, but you might catch some flak for "bar" type analysis. The market doesn't care what's a bar to you (because it's different due to different timeframes, time differences, etc). [09:14:04] atto: So, you might be able to apply this more successfully to price movements [09:14:13] atto: So a large movement on smaller volume (no matter how many bars) [09:14:20] atto: Or vice versa
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Yeah, if people approach trading like this, even if they learn to manage risk and make better decisions, that's where we get our edge. And getting hedge fund trading ideas from the news paper for swing positions? Also, getting pissed at traders for not hedging their financial positions... wouldn't that kill most of their profits (if they were right and had an actual edge)? I can see why everyone shouldn't have been short, but shorting US banks long UK banks probably won't do what you want... just use a smaller position size if the downside is too big. Maybe the second week, they'll go "Okay, so now you know how hard it is to try this without a plan. Here's mine, you better follow it, or you'll be like you were." Edit: Someone posted on YouTube: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVcMCrwc9UE]YouTube - Million Dollar Traders- Teach Me To Trade BBC2 1 of 6[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvZAM0pHf6M&feature=channel_page]YouTube - Million Dollar Traders - Make Me A Trader BBC2 2 of 6[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dKBeP_Q14E&feature=channel_page]YouTube - Million Dollar Traders - Make Me A Trader BBC2 3 of 6[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uldTdECfQFs&feature=channel_page]YouTube - Million Dollar Traders - Make Me A Trader BBC2 4 of 6[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW94G6J2XJ8&feature=channel_page]YouTube - Million Dollar Traders - Make Me A Trader BBC2 5 of 6[/ame] [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubv8G1KZ0Po&feature=channel_page]YouTube - Million Dollar Traders - Make Me A Trader BBC2 6 of 6[/ame]
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I wonder what kind of training these people actually got. It seems they have below typical retail trading knowledge, and are hooked trading after the fact news. I see a few trendlines on their screen, but they seem pretty clueless. Also, I wonder what they're doing all day. Going nearly a week with no positions, and planning to hold positions for "weeks" (on a very limited total time limit)... hm. If this guy was trying to make some Turtles, he's not doing it in the right way. Then again, this was just the first episode, so they could blow everyone out of the water by the end.
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Damn, get corrected correcting someone
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Actually, the number of people buying and selling was equal. That's how it works.
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My favorite entry is at the second. I was talking about an unlabeled area, in between the 1st and 2nd (but I wouldn't take the 1st either). Third isn't bad, just late, so not as good.
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Yep, okay so we were looking at the same thing (just had a slight time difference). I agree with fw in that the entry was on the second dot (breakout of prev high). While a stop loss would have been easier to place on the drift down to 04 (a test), you had R up above, and that would be trading hope. I would have entered (hindsight BS... I missed it) at 6.75-7.00, with an initial stop at 5.25 (below the swing is too wide, so it has to be at any sign of demand).
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firewalker, here's my entry from yesterday, shown on a 10m for a little context, and a 10s. Since the resistance was established much earlier, a fast interval chart didn't give a huge advantage, besides the extra test right after open.