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Interesting, I've heard that elsewhere too. I keep finding internal after internal that doesn't quite buy this rally yet. When people get to their senses is another matter. During Friday's chat, I posted something for NinjaTrader that plots Volume at Price OR Price at price (TPO style) better than anything else I've seen, so I thought I'd post it here as well. If finding value / balance by staring at price seems challenging, this may help. The price at price was Jw's idea, and behaves differently depending on your chart style. For time charts, it produces a TPO style histogram, based on time at different prices. For range bars, it shows a histogram of the number of times price traded to/from different prices. A sample picture is in order. Play around with it. If you think of anything else that would make it better, let me know. TL! File Share - Traders 1-Click Webhoster

It's fixed, I can read it. Looks great

Your blog says I don't have sufficient permission to access the page?

Hah, not only was the YouTube copy pulled, Paul Tudor Jones himself was the one who got the filmmaker to pull it. I wonder why he's so **** about it.. besides it showing him yelling into phones to get an order in .

I have also watched the 1t chart, and often have one open, but I always fall back to the 5s. It doesn't summarize too much, in my opinion, and shows the smallest price waves. Additionally, if you have true tick data, you do run into the problem of displaying it. Zooming out as far as I can (i, the 1t chart shows roughly 2-4 minutes during high active times. This gives tends to give me tunnel vision, and shows very little TICKQ (causing it to be quite blocky). If you like the idea of seeing ticks instead of bounding price to time, you might like a 10t chart. You end up with around 7000 bars in the day on the NQ. The purpose of the "fast" chart is to pay attention to price (the ebb and flow), not bars. How you prefer to do that is up to you.

For those who didn't catch it, someone posted Traders the Documentary, which follows Paul Tudor Jones in 1986-1987, on YouTube. It's fairly interesting, and is very hard to find (because he got it off the air, and bought all the remaining copies). I've combined the parts into one video, and reuploaded it. Keep these to yourself (it's not a copyright issue, it was on PBS, but it'll die quick if it gets posted publicly). Same thing, uploaded to two sites. MEGAUPLOAD - The leading online storage and file delivery service zSHARE - TRADER The Documentary.wmv

A few thoughts.. Two cars is too much for a $5k account, especially while you're learning. A learning trader doesn't want high leverage, as you want to make your mistakes as cheaply as possible. I recommend that new traders start by trading ETFs (even on a swing basis), so they can formulate a strategy and get to real money as soon as possible. That way, you can make a whole lot more mistakes, and learn a lot more, for less money. Also, a lack of a plan is the greatest downfall of a trader. Until you have a set plan that can be followed, trades are based on your whims. You end up chasing, averaging down, etc. Find a methodology that suites you, discover an edge (and verify that the edge actually exists), and practice it. When you're trading based on probabilities of success (any bona fide edge), you're playing a game that I've told several newer traders. Pretend I have a 6 sided fair dice. If 1, 2, 3, or 4 rolls, you pay me $10. Otherwise, if a 5 or 6 rolls, I pay you $40. You're allowed to play as much as you want. Do you play the game? I would in a heart beat: the expected value per roll is +$6.67. However, on any one roll, I'll likely lose. Further, the outcome of any one roll doesn't matter at all. Trading is the same. With an edge, you're playing a probabilities game. The outcome of any one trade doesn't matter. You'll have streaks where you lose several in a row, and you did nothing wrong. A losing trade shouldn't bother you at all, just as a losing throw of the dice wouldn't bother you. But you'll never know until you form a solid plan.

We'll miss you. About damn time . And yes, great call on the blog. You doing it here or elsewhere? The blog format (with comments enabled) would probably suit you better than a thread, but either works. Now go write that plan.

Most definitely. For example, I had no consistent and prolonged success with indicators. Is that to say that someone else cannot? Of course not. Through trial and error, instruction, and dumb luck I have formed a methodology that (1) makes sense and (2) beats the pants off of anything else I have tried. The issue that many people have is that while a specific methodology is "free", it requires the investment of hundreds (and at times, thousands) of hours, with no bona fide end. Since you're compelled to share the insights you have gained, I think we'd all benefit from some hard right, real time action. No, you're not obligated to do anything. But offering some real time analysis would greatly influence many of our perceptions, as well as offer newbies something tangible to hold on to. I personally would never invest an incredible amount of time into a method that had unsure real time results. The TL chat room is an excellent place to share this kind of stuff. I have nothing to prove, but I do enjoy hanging out there and sharing many of my own trades. And as the regulars will tell you, I'm not always "right" (and that's perfectly okay). We'd love if you (and your friends) would drop by and share what volume's saying. Or, if the chat room would be too much of a distraction, do some longer term analysis of an index (since your method works on any timeframe, provided sufficient liquidity and volume).

As you obviously agree with this quote, I encourage you to explore price outside of these confines you have put it in ("vendor induced fad", "not possible to get results"). These qualities are inherently false, as myself and many others have discovered the practical and structural elements of trading price. The Wyckoff forum is completely free and contains the structure and process to understand price and the auction, and how to trade successfully with this understanding. No fancy software to buy, no products to vend. Additionally, and probably more importantly, people are doing it. Real money, live trades, actual results. If Wyckoff doesn't resonate with you (which is fine), there are other price methodologies here. Thales has posted many live trades of simply buying and selling support/resistance breaks. It can be quite simple -- even a kid could do it.

Alrighty, here's the product of today. Jon wanted to overlay TICK like Db in Ninja, which isn't supported in NT6.5 (but will be in NT7!), so I programmed something that does just that. Please keep this to yourself for now. It's guaranteed to be buggy. Import the attached zip. To use it, attach the "Price" strategy to your chart (note: turn off chart trader first). Since indicators cannot access other instruments, I made a strategy that feeds the data to ChartOverlay, which displays it. You could technically use this to overlay any data stream. There might be a bug when you select which instrument (default is "^TICK"). If you can't change it to something else (like "^TICKQ"), edit the source code for "Price", and under the Variables section, change it. By the way Db, I compared IB tick data to real tick data. It isn't even close ChartOverlay.zip

It doesn't always, but that shouldn't matter. Your job is to make money. If you find that TICK keeps you on the right side of the market, while causing you to miss out on a few trades, I'd say it's still great to use. Spend some time watching the TICK so you get a feel for it. You might also find different setups for when the TICK doesn't diverge at S/R (a breakout, possibly?).

If they are giving you a "fair degree of success", and you're happy with them, stick with it. I personally don't know of any MA cross traders, but if you're making it work for you, good for you.

Drummond Geometry aside, if someone loses all of their money following a strategy, it's their fault. Everyone needs to find what makes sense and resonates with them and their own style, be it Drummond, Market Profile, Wyckoff, candles, technical indicators, etc. Testing/validating, analysis, money management, and actual trade decisions are up to them.

Excellent work forrestang. You've nailed this concept. As you noticed, don't discount swing points, as they serve as possible areas of S/R. However, you want to keep your eyes on spots that have been traded many times. Why? More people interested. As you see, after you learn how to identify support and resistance as you did, trading them becomes much easier.

Another measure of breadth I watch is the Bullish Percent Index, which is simply the percent of stocks in a index or sector that are on PnF buy signals. Something to note: the way this is calculated, a stock is always in a Buy or Sell signal. This neglects times that a stock is congesting, or makes a quick reversal. The signals also lag, as it takes a couple waves to make a buy or sell signal. However, I've found that it is a great measure of market breadth and participation. StockCharts does an excellent job of calculating EOD values for this index for all major US indexes and sectors. Here is NDX and SPX, showing some divergences and notable weakness (however, as expected, NDX is quite stronger in general).

Newbies typically gravitate to two things that are quite counterproductive: leverage and action. However, during the learning process -- which never stops, but at least during the beginning stages -- you want to have little leverage, and more time to think about what's going on. Day trading appeals to so many people, but it promotes quick and often hurried decisions. Rather, I truly believe it's better to start at a slower pace, and with as little leverage as possible. Your money will last longer, and you can even trade live while carrying on a full time job. You do not need much money to begin trading a few shares of an ETF, and the analysis is identical. Set aside a few thousand as your tuition / learning money, and trade it slow. Once you've established an edge, understand market action, and have gained confidence in your trading, then you might want to consider moving up. Also, swing trading ETFs is a great way to practice your understanding live, while you record the intraday session (with free software like the NinjaTrader demo) to trade in the evenings. With NinjaTrader, you can speed up the replay for when you're less interested in price (in between support/resistance, perhaps), and slow it to normal speed when you're considering a trade.

They quotes Thales too, on a random post about his daughter. Is it bad that when I saw the link "The Quotable DbPhoenix", I was hoping it was one of your old indicator posts from ET? :rofl:

Good one. The replies are even better.

Db, perhaps this is what you were looking for. It's the A/D ratio, but at least isn't cumulative. I can do intraday as well if you want, but I thought you'd rather the daily.

I don't use indicators in my own trading, but come from a Math background, so this stuff is interesting. What was your sample size of the data you optimized for? Mind posting today's as well? As you know, it's quite easy to cherry pick any technical indicator/setup so it looks amazing (not saying you did). Thanks.

No, it's quite liquid during regular market hours. It's not really spikey, but it often does move more than ES. 30 day average daily range is about 30pts. One thing to note, though, that per move, it's usually cheaper than ES. For example, since open, NQ has ranged about 13 pts (= $260/car) while ES has ranged about 6 pts (= $300/car), even though NQ has actually moved more % wise today. S/R principles work regardless of the instrument, however. Find one that fits your personality, and study it.

Slippage shouldn't be an issue during normal market hours. Specifically, you can pretty much always get in ~50 cars at market without moving it more than a tick.

You're correct, I just didn't see it getting that high. A few things I watch on a larger tf are getting quite weak (such as the Up Dn vol div), and the Wyckoff Wave charts have been weaker than the general market. It was more me thinking the bulls didn't have it in them. Today will be fun.

Db, mind posting the stock and sector Wyckoff Wave charts? I was a bit surprised at the outcome today. However, there is quite the divergence in the Up Dn volume. Also today, Up vol backed off, Dn vol increased. GOOG missed earnings, and it's off ~4% from the highs today. Think this might be the needle that pops the Balloon of Hope?