atto

Agreed. Promising to "fix" the oil markets simply buys easy votes ("oh no, the gas prices!") and ignores many of the larger issues. Plus, high oil boosts the alternative energy markets. Isn't that what he wants? Put a ceiling on oil (or however he wants to do it) only prolongs serious money going to R&D for cheap, safe, clean energy. Whoops... 35% is nothing if nucular power is utilized again. And unfortunately, Presidencies only last 4-8 years, so a 22 year plan may boil down to all talk and no action.

Politics aside, I wish we could get someone who understands economics in the White House. This isn't the first time a basic Economics 101 lesson would help a lot. What's he want to do? Limit/Regulate the US oil futures market? All that would do is shift volume to other (international) exchanges. Speaking of economically minded politicans, check out Ross Perot's new site. There's some really good information there about the current US economic condition.

At times, I'm most interested in (selectively) losing information . If I am able to make effective trading decisions off a 5-minute chart, then the additional information would only cause information overload. In a bigger picture, if you were position trading and planned to hold for months, how much information is gained from the tick data? How does the fact that someone went long 5 contracts affect your position? Check out Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It's not a trading book, but speaks volumes about selective ignorance and information overload.

I haven't read this whole thread yet, but wanted to chime in after what I did see. While "prediction" is a no-no for many traders, if used in the same way as "statistical expectation", I think it's perfectly valid. Case in point: When I enter a trade, I have no idea what direction the markets will go. However, I have a statistical edge in a certain direction (or risk/reward setup), so it is possible for me to exploit that for financial gain. Therefore, I am predicting that the market goes in my direction. If the markets were random, then it would be impossible to profit from the markets exploiting a "bias" over the long term. Likewise, a trader could not make consistant profits using random data (simulating a market) using their bias over the long term.

Almost all of use here use technical analysis, which is based on price action (which is on charts). If you went to a "investment" forum, you'd may hear that charts are a waste of time and fundemental analysis is the way to go. Neither of your statements regarding banks and prop traders have much factual basis. If you catch the news, banks haven't been doing very well, and many "prop" traders I know are doing extremely well. There's little correlation in either direction. Also, to reiterate what's been said, you don't have millions to throw around, so you can't do many of the things big banks do. Learn some market basics first, and you'll get an idea what a retail trader can do. That being said, I would recommend you do some reading first. It sounds like your understanding of the markets is elementry, so any basic finance/investment/trading book will do. As long as you stay away from the efficient market crowd, you'll be fine .

It all depends on the bank and their strategy. Many banks clear for hedge funds, which trade however they want. In general, most use both fundemental and technical analysis. The exact mixture, I have no idea. Many banks hire quants to use mathematical modeling (which is based on price). As for training, most of those traders have a masters or PhD already.