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I'm interested in your approach. How accurate are your "projections"? What kind of trading do you do with them (how big of moves are you trading)?

So, what are the 3 words?

Very interesting. So, how do you trade off this? How much better are your projections than random? I did have a few questions, but I'll start with two. Since all trades are 1 for 1 (a buy and a sell), what are you calculating? I understand the technical lingo, but don't really understand what you're trying to do. Price isn't like a missle, so you can't calculate a trajectory. Could you elaborate?

Yeah, I like the idea of a poker-type forum. I say don't limit it to just poker, but I can't think of a catchy name. Could be inclusive of anything non-trading with an exploitable edge.

Check out Investopedia, specifically, the Investing basics. What type of investing/trading are you interested in? Any basic investing/stock book would probably work for you. Learn the basics of price action, and what causes prices to move. I'd advise you to learn more about trading before you jump into specific systems. This list on Amazon should be plenty to get you started.

Volume doesn't always (or often?) spike before a big move, so unless he's using some sort of magic, I doubt it offers a significant edge.

Here is a correlation chart that you can change depending on your needs: http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/trading/correlation/table/ You also might want to check out volitility figures on the same site, as that could play a part into how you trade it. Remember, though, that during extreme market conditions, correlations can't be trusted. Things unwind in seemingly weird ways, which can put all your positions against you. An applicable case in point would be "correlated" forex pairs for carry trades. As one pair unwinds, people start to take out their entire carry. Also, you'll generally be paying the swap for currencies correlated against what you want to trade, and given the "protection" can be false, you may not end up on top. If you trade 5-20 day swings (or longer), the carry can help your trade. Anything less than that, and comission / spread eats up any carry you'd collect. Entering a carry pair just to collect the swap is like buying a stock just for the dividend.. sometimes it's just a stupid idea.

An option is to swing/position trade pairs with a carry, in the direction of the positive swap. The "goal" is to make pips, and you're collecting swap along the way.

I already trade it, and am constantly working to improve it (adding new biases to test). Just looked him up, and yeah, he's doing a lot of the same stuff. I think I have more biases, but it seems to be working for him. My drawdown (per contract) is less than his, but the method looks similar.

I have 5 min data for 3 years (OHLC + Volume). If you could do better, that would be great.

If I may ask, what are the r/r and win %? How many trades does it make? Those are petty good stats, especially if it's more mechanical than not. I would go ahead and backtest it over as much as you can, and as many different market conditions as you can. Does the system favor certain conditions? Moving from here, you want to pay attention to the maximum drawdown. $1900 is pretty steep, especially if it's making a lot of trades, and that's only 1 year. If you allocated $5k per contract, you'd be looking at an almost 40% drawdown. Could you handle that? Do other years have similar / worse drawdowns?

I used to do a good amount of Elliot Wave analysis, but it's been a while. Those counts look like they were made in early 2008, and I believe price action has pretty much invalidated those. My counts have the 5th wave ending in October 2007, with the first major corrective wave unfinished. We've retraced a good part of Wave 5 already (over 61.8%). If Wave 5 is indeed over, we most likely have a complicated, drawn out corrective path in front of us. I'm looking out for a 1190 target for this down wave, which coincides with several other levels. This is a fun chart. It's the Dow in Euros. (Full disclosure: I don't trade off Elliot Wave, but it's fun to think about. I have the most repect for this guy out of any of the big Elliot traders)

Oil companies are well priced in terms of the price of oil, so it's not like you're getting a wonderful bargan. I don't know much about the European stock market, but make some high volatility earnings plays. Risk is your friend, if you're looking for first place. Small cap companies often have high volatility as well. Are you allowed to short stocks?

I'm seeing signs of at least a short term bottom, but still believe we'll be in a bear market for several more months. The technicals and fundementals are pretty awful for the market (long term).

The "new age" market is filled with snake oil salesmen. That being said, I have used Holosync, and do think it works.

The book itself (not in the package) is here. Never read it, but those are amazing reviews. I think I'll order it as well.

He's the only politican whose intelligence has truly impressed me.

This. Something may have gone wrong, but very profitable traders who follow their rules exactly lose trades. Try to identify if you did mess up, but if not, be glad you followed your rules.

Very few people give freely what they know for the benefit of others. There's good money in selling hopes and dreams to people. Just a general guideline to remember.

I saw you make the same comment on ET when someone asked about a candlestick pattern (and you replied the same). Well played, good sir. (Oh, he's just a Hershey trader, pay no attention )

Thanks for the link. Not sure I'm impressed, though.. I didn't see anything eye catching there, to be honest. Time in the axis just allows us to identify when something happened.. I don't care it's specifically at 10:00 or 11:13. I've never used time that way. I made two trades today, and both were very quick (time wise) and direct. The speed at which it moves means something, which I feel is important. Constant volume bars don't get that (they can just notice how fast it's moving forward, but there's no visual reference). Regarding POC.. that was the point of me identifying volume ratios along the bar. The height of the bar shows the range, while the thickness shows the bar's relative volume at each price. I guess another question comes up: Does the "delta" have any tradable advantage, or does net volume basically say the same thing when used in reference to the bar?

Yeah, I'm not sure if I'm aiming for showing the actual volume on the bar (like the Equivolume bar), but how it's distributed. This isn't clear from my rough example. Possibly a percentage of the total volume. I still intend to have volume plotted separately below, as I do usually. If we used volume for the body modifier, it would be a single bar "volume at price", in relation to each other. For example, let's compare a very common candlestick reversal pattern -- the hammer. It involves price heading down, and ending near the open. However, we have no indication how that happened. Did it spend almost all the time at the top, and a very quick run down (and back)? Did it go down, stay there as buyers and sellers battle it out, and then return? POC helps this, which is the reason it's there in my example. Changing the "body" gives this a new dynamic (while showing a lot of the same information). Another direction is correlating time to the thickness. This would really only make sense on a non-time chart (volume, tick, range, etc), but could put the time element on a non-time chart. Anything else important? I'm thinking about possibly highlighting areas that have a high "relative order size", either bigger than a set limit, or in relation to recent volumes. The tick-volume "wall" is too good to pass up (unless I find a better way of identifying it), and is a kind of pseudo-tape reading.

Very possible. I'm thinking about programming the "relative order size" (the "wall", mentioned earlier) into an entry system for NinjaTrader. Let's brainstorm ideas regarding our new plot (any ideas welcome). I hear from people who use volume charts that time is useless, but I wonder. Doesn't it matter that it took x hours as opposed to y minutes to have certain volume / movement / etc? Human psychology responds to time, so I'm not completely sure that time is a bad thing. For instance, in congestion, the tight range with low volume may barely show up in a P&F or volume chart. What else is important? Here's an idea I had... I am creating a good bit of this as I type, so I may ditch many concepts, add others, and then throw the whole thing away . Instead of using a candle with a body representing the different between open and close (which imho isn't that significant intraday in itself), what if we started with a 1 pixel wide verticle bar that represents the range the the bar (just as almost all charting methods use). Then, we expand the bar horizontally based on time, price or volume (undecided; if we used price, it would be the time elapsed at that price; possibly use it to show relative order size? let me get some real data on that and see what it looks like). In the attached pic, I represented an idea of bid/ask volume on either side. POC could be added with a purple horizontal bar. Thoughts?

No, I haven't. Much of what I have done is automated systems and a few indicators that help automate what I look for. I also heard that in the next version of Ninja, it will be possible to (easily) get data from other timeframes or markets in indicators, which would be very helpful.

I've heard good things about Amp Futures, which offers NinjaTrader with zenfire.