atto

As a full disclosure, I generally lean on the side of pacifism and non-interventionalism. It is my opinion that in the majority of time, messing around militarily causes many more problems than good. I've taken a good amount of interest in the conflict/war between Russia and Georgia. Media sources originally called it the "South Ossetia War", but it looks like it's a full on conflict between Russia and Georgia now. For those of you who haven't followed the conflict, it started (subject to opinion) when Georgia militarily entered South Ossetia, an area on the north side of recognized Georgia, in response to alleged bombings in Georgian villages. South Ossetia seceded from Georgia in the 90's, and has been in a cease fire since. However, no members of the UN have recognized South Ossetia as a sovereign state. Russia entered Georgia on Aug 8, playing "big brother". Since then, the two countries have waged military, propaganda, and cyber war. The city of Gori has fallen into Russian control, and Georgian troops have withdrawn towards the capital. Some reports are saying Russia does not intend to take the capital. This is potentially a big deal since the US has historically helped Georgia. Additionally, some reports today indicate that US helped transport Georgian troops from Iraq along with supplies. This could get messy if peace talks don't go well. Russia has maintained that they are only helping South Ossetia, while Georgia has claimed this is an invasion. The death counts vary wildly, and are probably largely inaccurate. Russia's interest may be oil, since there is a large pipeline running through the area. However, this is pure speculation from Georgian sources. Has anyone else been following this? What's your opinion?

Have you tried upgrading to the newest version of NT?

Currently, the chat room has a max message size of 125 characters. Could you bump this up a little? Several of the people in chat Friday agreed with this, as we're frequently breaking up messages because of the limit, and some links won't work because they're longer than 125 chars. As for an exact amount, the higher the better, imho.

We all felt that way. Pretty much everyone who enters trading feels that they will be different, for whatever reason.

She must not hang out with the algo guys much. I think this is off topic, because obviously we're talking about non-automated trading in this thread, but I personally have a couple algos that do well, and I personally know a trader who cleared 8 figured last year, 100% auto. It's not for everyone, and it's not easy at all. Neither of us sell our stuff, and I know how guarded he is about his strategies. Beginners should absolutely not expect to be able to use a "black box" to make good money. However, it's possible (I've only seen it work on custom algos, not bought). edit: I received a PM about this. Here was my response (and let's keep this kind of talk out of this specific thread from now on, because it's not really on topic):

He dropped into the chat room this afternoon. He actually trades off a 30 sec. Answering to that, I don't see a real problem with a newbie using a fast chart as long as they aren't trying to trade every little squiggle. If you view price as continious, it travels at the same speed regardless of the chart timeframe (which are "summaries"). A fast timeframe just gives more "detail" (which could be a bad thing, depending on the trader, method, and setups). We did speak today about using larger timeframes (daily, hourly, 15 min, etc) to set a context for current price action. Identifying S/R levels on a 30 second is very difficult if you can only see an hour (or whatever) on your chart. edit: I know you've resisted forming a very defined trading plan (unless you just haven't posted about it yet). Maybe this post will help motivate you.

I found this post on "Re: Edge VS Mentality" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month August, 2008"

Yeah, I've never found data that beat Zenfire, which you can easily get with Ninja (which is cheap to begin with).

Regardless of the day, if your trading plan does not present trades, don't take any. Simple as that. Today was a pretty solid trend day, which is odd for a FOMC day. I have found that, in general, new traders struggle with trend days, simply because you don't see them very often. Don't worry about it. I took a quick morning trade, and then sat out until FOMC (in general, I don't do as well on FOMC mornings/lunchtimes). FOMC days are generally fairly dull, so don't worry about it. New traders shouldn't trade the actual anouncement either.

Assuming edges are easy to find, and the real difficulty is psychology: couldn't a new trader trivially automate it, thus elliminating the entire need for any psychology? Not saying automation is impossible (I have a few successful algos), but that's not the point. I argue that it's not either-or; it's both-and. Edges are quantifyable, so people discuss them the most (regardless if it's because they have no psychological control or not). Psychology is sticky and messy. You have to analyse yourself, prod your own weaknesses. A very strong root to a lack of psychological strength is a lack of faith in a trader's edge (existant or not). Sure, if you give a very good edge to 10 people, all 10 will behave differently with it. However, it's certainly better than not giving the 10 anything. More importantly, finding an edge is very valuable. To find one, you go through tens and possibly hundreds of things that don't work, make no sense, and do not mesh with you. You have to spend screen time. Once you have found one, you can more easily learn to trust it. There's your psychological trading aspect. Those who do not spend the time to develop an edge will not, with very few exceptions, succeed. It takes time, it takes screen time. I'm glad you are focusing on the psychological aspect of trading, which is very important. That said, psychology with no edge is worthless.

My intent was not to be harsh, apologies for coming across like that.

Yeah, I'm not convinced anyone here would put that much into it to actually do that kind of analysis for the tick count. Regardless, I hope we can put this to rest.

I've used AMP (still do as a backup). I like them, no problems at all.

Yes, brownsfan is absolutely correct. We are pretty much completely technical analysis, but I do want to reply to a few things in your post. While it's great you're doing your own research, I wouldn't rely on random internet postings to pick your stocks for you (assuming that's what you want to do). In general, the big analysis firms do not have an outstanding track record. To be dead honest, these ratings do have a history of manipulation. If they did work well, you could just do what they say and make easy money. Most analysis you may do based on pure numbers (P/E's, ROA's, etc) has little significant benefit, simply because (in general) the market has already priced in the value of the company. With fundemental analysis (and to an extent, technical analysis), you're banking on the fact that you can price a company better than the market (a very challenging feat). Never assume in this game. As I mentioned above, they have very little edge (if any). In the future, if a edge you use and stick to has you buying or selling an instrument, don't listen to the chit-chat. That assumes you have an edge, but that's a different story. To be fair, I know very little about this company, and I do not primarily trade stocks. That said, I took a look, here's what I see (and please don't trade off this, I'm just showing you an alternative perspective). The stock has been hit fairly hard recently, and can't be considered in an uptrend yet. Furthermore, it's nearing some potential resistance above. There is very little volume above this (by price), which could also resist upward movement. However, if it does break upwards, it should move pretty well. A potential upside target would be 4.20-4.40 due to previous value and possible resistance. There seems to be a decent sized area of value around where it is now (with a slight bearish bent, currently). There also seems to be some steady buyers at 3.10-3.20, so if it breaks below this, you may have problems. I would personally wait for more signs of accumulation before considering a buy (this is only the opinion of a random internet poster, remember ).

I'm no forex export (I trade futures, and still am no "expert"). That said, thank you Gamma for sharing. This is a very common misconception of forex "volume", and needs to be put to rest. You're not seeing volume, or anything close. As for how it (the count of price changes) may "work", I first recommend you to Dbphoenix wonderful story, which has applications outside of just indicators. It may be a giant coincidence that what it's counting happens to help with VSA, it may be a random cloud (where you see what you want to see), or it may simply not "work". I'm not exactly sure how you're testing if it "works", but if VSA needs volume, this isn't it. Regardless, don't fool yourself into thinking you're using something you're not. edit: Replying to walterw's comments below: I don't even think it's a good measure of market activity. Read Gamma's previous posts; it can increment without any trades taking place. Likewise, it could not budge when volume is slammed, due to a close match of buying and selling pressure. It also could move a good deal under moderate volume. The point is, it's not a proxy for volume, because it's not specifically correlated in any way (positive or negative). If what it is measuring is helpful, use it (no one's saying not to). However, it's not volume, or even a proxy (which should share a positive correlation).

Well said forsearch. So no, more contracts won't help your situation at all (until you start throwing around a lot of volume, and can re-negotiate comissions, but that's far off in the future). A lesson I've learned the hard way is that you always get filled on bad trades, and not always on good ones. Makes sense, but if you do use limits, that potentially could effect your P/L more than you figure. On top of that, as much as you hate it, emotions will be in play. You will have money on the line, and fear and greed are little bastards. This is even more reason to develop a solid plan. Make it as systematic as possible. Define everything, know exactly what you're looking for. As I mentioned before, start with one setup. The longer you just trust your "feel" of flow, the longer it will take (in my opinion). There's a few good Wyckoff style setups here that are great starts.

No, he sells well. Do your due diligence; this guy isn't someone you want to learn from.

If I'm understanding you right, it's per contract, so it's all the same (and from your trading style, all "expensive"). $50-$60/month, depending on how much you prepay. You can also buy a lifetime license. Don't plan on using the Dynamic DOM unless you want to pay more, as well. Also, do you use limit or market orders? If you use limit orders, you may not always get filled. If you use market orders, there *will* be slippage you probably aren't considering.

While that helps when everything's good, what happens when your system goes down or your connection dies? I think it's a big enough deal having to deal with 1 live order when that happens, but a bunch?

That takes screen time, to be honest. It's also based on what kinds of moves you're targeting. However, let me give you an example: If you're trading a breakout, you need to see both price and volume confirming. If price is just slowly messing around, even in your direction, it's not really "breaking", is it? If you don't see new volume helping it out, do you think it has gas to keep moving? Don't be afraid to get out for a couple ticks, and wait for what you want. I frequently enter a breakout, exit for a couple ticks, price pulls back to old res (now support), and I re-enter. Net to net, risking less and gaining a few free ticks.

Re-read Phantom's rules #1 and #2. Get out when you're not proved right, not when you're proved wrong.

Wonderful (I bolded what I especially liked). Miss one, oh well, wait for another. I'm also seeing that you're holding on for longer. Good stuff, keep practicing.

You'll need a SWF player. This one may do nicely.

To elaborate on BlowFish, fractals are repeating patterns. In trading, they can allow you to take the risk of a short term trade, and parlaying that into a longer term trade. For a very simple example, if you entered long at the start of an uptrend, which was a wave inside of a larger uptrend, you are using fractals. Most people who do analysis on different timeframes are using fractals in one way or another.

From a few of your posts, it seems like you are trading to be right: catch the most of a move (and every move), have only winning days, have only winning trades, etc. Not saying you expect these, but that your ultimate goal is those things. To be bluntly honest (which I assume you want), this is the mark of a newbie. While that sounds good, there are no trading awards for being right. Instead, your job is to optimize your P/L. You may say that the above is simply a means to this result, but I don't see the correlation as directly. Making profits is your only goal. Re-read the last sentence. It doesn't ultimately matter if you miss a move, if you get out too soon, if you have losing days, if you take a bunch of losing trades, etc. In the end, all that matters is your P/L. Be willing to be wrong; let the market tell you what's right. While you need to look at the above issues, you need to purely focus on P/L. I personally struggled (and still do at times) with missing moves. I see a perfect hindsight setup, missed it (for whatever reason), and create excuses to get in ASAP. The underlying cause is the same that drives you to overtrade and chase losses. You have to learn to let those go, and wait patiently for the next entry signal. Some periods/days are good, some aren't. In line with the Phantom of the Pits, I challenge you to avoid hitting your full stop loss. If the market is not proving you correct, get out. You'll miss a few eventual winners, but will avoid many more full losers. I'm not a scalper, but I think you should re-evaluate what types of moves you are targeting. Commissions will eat you alive as is, even if you have a moderately profitable day. I count 24 trades, which will likely be over $100 in comissions per contract (5 NQ pts), which almost doubled your losses for the day.