TradeRunner

I think that day is not too far away. I think I have had a fair bit of luck over the last few days catching the big moves down.

1 trade: +50 I couldn't decide on a target for this trade and originally just put it on a round number 141.00 which would have been +75. I had second thoughts and moved it to +50 but if I was trading 2 contracts then my second target would've have been 141.00 .

Monday: No trades taken Tuesday: 1 trade (+32)

Hi Kiwi How did you get these numbers for expectancy? I can't find expectancy as defined in you post but did find this one... E = Expectancy P(w)= Probability of winners S(w)= Average winner Size P(l)= Probability of losers S(l)= Average loser size E = [P(w)*S(w)]-[P(l)S(l)] So with 35% pf 2 doesn't that give P(w)=0.35 S(w)=130 P(l)=0.65 S(l)=65 E = 3.25 TradeRunner

Hi Thales Yes I was trailing my stops and my initial stop loss was 24 and tp was 52. This would have been a break even trade with my original rules or -15 without the breakeven rule. No regrets regarding the +9 instead of +52. If anything I think I gave it too much slack and should have been a break even after the initial breakout and then reenetered on second breakout. Do you ever enter on second breakouts? TradeRunner

Thursday: 5 Trades:) (-60) Ok Friday: 1 Trade (+9)

Monday: -75 (A bad day) Tuesday: +45 (Lucky to end positive) Wednesday: +30 (Should have been more)

Me to - I'm an expert hindsight trader

Today's trading: 3 trades (-15)

Hi Thales Thanks for your comments. TradeRunner

UK weather chaos has given me a chance to catch up. Here are my results from the 7th: 6 trades (+30)

I'm a day behind these are my trades for the 6th: 5 trades (-51)

Hi Thales Ok I hadn't understood that this was a different entry setup but I can see that now. I guess you would make the same comment for my first trade yesterday where I bought new high out of a chop zone, the 123 entry would have been the high of the breakout candle. TradeRunner

Hi Thales I have a couple of questions... Thanks for pointing out the data differences. I'm currently using SC's free historic data feed so I'm getting what I paid for I guess. I will switch SC to use OEC's data instead. Thanks TradeRunner

I’m still treating this as a learning exercise rather than something that I would end up trading so I wasn’t too discouraged but it still nice to have positive days. However, if it turned out to be profitable then why not? I think the low % of winners would be hard to stomach if I had real money on the line and I would also have to be careful with position sizing. Anyway as you say the sample size is too small to tell whether it would be profitable plus I’m still learning and making mistakes. I think the exercise has the following advantages for me: 1. I can just focus on just reading price action. 2. Focusing on one contract means that I have to deal with whatever that contract gives me for the day – slow, fast, chop, range or trending. 3. It provides a framework that I can introduce other discretionary elements gradually (one at a time if necessary): position sizing, selecting target prices, trailing stops, identifying relevant S&R 4. Its good practice just trading a plan. It is very much like the exercise described in the back of “Trading In The Zone” I will continue with exercise for another week or two and see if I can get rid of the trading errors before making any changes. That’s interesting because my feeling is that I would be more aggressive with my stops if I wasn’t following the mechanical system – quite often I feel the trade isn’t working and I’m just sitting on my hands waiting for -15. I think this is one of the many delicate balancing acts new traders have to become experience in. From my several readings of this thread I think you alter how aggressive you are with your trailing stops depending on the context of the trade. Is that correct? Thanks for your help. TradeRunner

Sorry I rushed to post yesterday and got my results wrong. I have attached an updated picture with some additional comments and corrected entries 9 Trades (+41) 3 Win (+90) 4 Loss (-49) 2 BE Not as good as I first though but a postive day. I have had to move from OEC to Sierra Charts because I just can't get OEC's market replay to work. I have used SC in the past but I've never used its replay feature or chart trading. SC replay feature is very good in that I don't have to record the market like in NT or OEC and it is easy to avoid seeing the days action before replaying (this is almost impossible with OEC as far as I can work out) but its reporting facility is poor and some of the fills /no fills are a bit odd.

A better day today. (Yesterday was a real struggle) 8 Trades: 4 win, 3 loss, 1BE

1) Yes and the dotted lines represent valid trades that I did not see in real time. 2) Yes and no. The exercise said to take every sequence but I have stopped taking sequences that I think are in a chop zone - identifying these areas seems like an important skill. I also move to BE when price moves +16. I'm must admit that I'm starting to struggle with the HL and LH created by two bars because they occur everywhere - I'm feeling less inclined to take these.

7 trades taken today on 6E: 1 winner, 5 losers and 1 in progress

Hi Brownsfan Congratulations on your 2009 success. Out of interest what was your max or average risk per trade? Thanks TradeRunner

Today's trade summary:

Actually maybe I missed the next entry. Added: Second chance? Added 2: SL to break even. Last trade of the day for me today. Going to play in the snow with my kids.

Hi ziebarf Snap and it has started to move... Update: BE. Next!

I feel lucky to come away with another positive day and I'm only $50 away from BE on the week. My third trade was a gamble and is born out of wanting to come away with more than 30 ticks. I could fix this by trading more than one contract but I'll keep it simple for now. However, I need to change my stop loss strategy because I have found it frustrating to watch price almost hit my TP and then watch it reverse and take a full SL. This is causing me to doubt some of my entries - sometimes I just don't feel that it’s going to move 30 ticks and therefore that will mean a 15 tick loss. I don't think I would be able to follow a fixed SL strategy if I had real money on the line. I’m going to change it to the following: 1. Move SL to BE when price ticks past 15 ticks. 2. Stop and reverse if the price action dictates it. So my exit options are -15, 0, +30, -14 to +29. I didn't follow this rule today but I did manage my SL to reduce my losses. Thales thanks for your time and feedback. It's late I'll respond to you last reply tomorrow.