TradeRunner

You could try sierra chart's Sierra Chart Historical Intraday Futures Data Service: Sierra Chart Historical Intraday Futures Data Service There is a 15 day free trial but I don't think this data service is included. But with Sierra Charts it is pay as you go so you could just buy a month of usage and download the data you require. I had trouble cancelling iqfeed. TradeRunner

I have never found volume to be very useful, but today I have been rereading some of the most thanked posts including the ones in this thread. Here is some of my analysis for NQ (6th Sept 2012). Is my analysis correct? Unfortunately the analysis is hindsight (I'm not fast enough to do it in real time yet) although I did pick up on the failure to reach the range bottom and was thinking long at that point. (NQ is making new highs in this contract and I haven't had a chance to calculate S&R at these levels)

I'm behind on my replays but here are some thoughts and questions on 4/9/12. My lines drawn before the open: Overnight: Open: Looking at the whole day the lines I drew worked well...

Agreed. I don't think he would agree with you that applying statistics is necessary to successfully trade or providing an edge. KISS is his mantra. Here is a trading secret: Guys even if you had Steve's lines you still wouldn't be able to trade successfully... TradeRunner

Hi Goodoboy If you think that it would help watching someone trade (in this way) then check this out: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9207-don-miller-trading-after-dark.html and there is plenty of information on what and how he trades in his blogs...(fading fast moves is one of his things) Don Miller Trading Journal Don Miller's S&P Trading Tank in a few years time, after you have finished trying to find out how other people trade, you will be back here and ready to figure out how you are going to trade: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/13708-trading-journal-trading-log.html Enjoy the journey! TradeRunner

Excellent question Gringo and excellent answer Db. I have been thorough the S&R threads many times and hadn't pick up on this. Interesting that this is the second question about this chart. You would think that days like the one in post #18 would be more contentious as there were so many more decision points. Do you think that "beginners" should forget about reversals and initially focus on retracement based entries? TradeRunner

Hey Steve I think you once recommend in this book in your first TL thread: Amazon.com: The Mathematics of Technical Analysis: Applying Statistics to Trading Stocks, Options and Futures (9780595012077): Clifford Sherry: Books

Thanks for the reply and the rewrite. I have replayed all the charts you have posted in this thread. I guess my problem with (just) this chart is the switch from short to long. At what point do you start thinking long rather than short? Could you be thinking long even earlier than the entry(sorry):

Is the second long too early?

Steve I'm here to read you not to be helped or expect a trade-able system to be detailed here - that is not your modus operandi. (It's the weekend; do you ever sleep!) TradeRunner

Looks like Negotiator didn't get the memo... But that's ok because he asked Steve nicely so I'm sure an explanation will be forthcoming... You can see all that in candles? Looks like a HH followed by a LH to me and these where happening before "algos" came along. Negotiator wasn't happy with the explanation either... Just to recap. Steve has started a thread to "help" retail traders but 1. He hasn't explained "algo pattern" in this thread or Negotiator's 2. He is not going explain the distribution lines (fair enough) What are you trying to accomplish with this thread Steve? TradeRunner

2 (in less than a minute and I'm a programmer with a degree)

Come across this on the film "Cloudy with a chance of meatballs". The track sounds so familiar but I never heard of the band before: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCR85u9QngQ]The Alan Parsons Project- Sirius - YouTube[/ame]

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There was no filtering. All signals were taken regardless of risk size. Maybe my interpretation of the stop rule is different? My stop is the top of the current pull back and ignores the degree of the swing. Easier to explain with a picture:

Here are the first 100 trades (as defined by me based on the original rules from post #8) on the EURUSD. In this back test I used the 65ema to take profits. I exited on the open of the day after a close below the 65ema. Results: +11500 ticks 37% win rate -1533 ticks draw down Here is the equity curve (in ticks): Here is a scatter graph showing the result of each trade (in ticks): The end result is good and the win rate is roughly what OT said it would be with that take profit strategy. However if I started trading it in 2004 I'm not sure I would have been able to continue for 2 years before seeing a profit. optiontimerproject results.xlsx

No trap to spring then optiontimer? Seems like most would ignore the system rules and pass on it. I was expecting you to show that it was the start of massive up trend.

But it doesn't quantify how far passed the EMAs price can go before an entry is invalid: When the 21 EMA is above the 65 EMA, we do not want to be short, and we may be looking for a long entry signal. Only oversold readings of the stochRSI are relevant, and they are relevant if and only if price has retraced back to a level between the EMA's or even slightly below. A long entry is signaled when stochRSI has turned up on a closing basis, and entry is made the next day if price makes a higher high than the prior day. So until you fully define what slightly means then you do have to second guess.

Here is a sierra chart study and for non sierra chart users a standard excel file that identifies entries based on my interpretation of the rules outlined in this thread. It is still very much work in progress. The excel file includes a sheet that describes what each column means. I plan to use this to back test the strategy with various stop management strategies. If you use sierra chart then the study plots the entry bar as shown here on a daily EURUSD chart: Ignore the long blue arrows that I added by hand for testing. I haven't coded the rule about going slightly above or below the EMA so you will see entries where price has travelled way passed the EMAs. I'm open to any ideas on what "slightly" should mean. The detection of higher highs and lower lows if very static (a dynamic solution is beyond my limited excel skills) so if there hasn't been a HH/LL after 5 days then it gives up looking. I'm not sure that I have understood what invalidates a signal bar. At the moment the signal bar is cancelled if there is a break of the signal bar in the wrong direction. TradeRunner optiontimerproject.xlsx optiontimerprojectsierrachart study.zip

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDTZ7iX4vTQ]Foster The People - Pumped Up Kicks - YouTube[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8uc7c0HZuc]The Pierces - Glorious - YouTube[/ame]

Thanks for the great thread Optiontimer. How long is the signal bar valid for? From the wording above I would say that it is only valid for one day after the signal bar. However some of the examples show trades when the HH or LL come more than 1 day after the signal bar. TradeRunner

I agree with Tams, Steve has made interesting contributions on here and ET. I just ignore the pro/retail attitude and course mentions (a very recent development after years of posting).

Kids today have way to much time on their hands... [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1G6de7MXs0]‪Pool Domination 2010‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]