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Everything posted by wasp
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nice makes me feel better anyhow....... thought we'd never bounce!
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Right now I have finished ruining my good reputation in T2W as hedgehogs and banana fiends, back to business......... Who would have thought a break would have dropped so easily... Once upon a time I would have shorted this, added and added then given it all back when it retraced sharp and hard! As it is...... could this level be a bottom for some bounces now?
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Rooskies?!?
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Sorry, just realised this was the poker board. Could someone move this to the correct forum, thanks.
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I was thinking about this recently and wondered what others thought........ On one hand you could have manipulation and stop running, yet on the other hand, does that really mean someone really has that much control or are they all trying to decipher direction like the rest of us? .............the 'big boys'... Something I have always had 2 minds about. Weak hands and strong hands........ I can understand from a large TF, the big boys bias say, on the GBP of late has been short. What gets me though is the short term. Lets say price is sat at 200 on the GBPJPY. Its an important psych level, there is support there a couple of times prior and its the middle of the UK trading session. As far as I am aware, there is no 'tier 1' of traders who can guarantee they ca move such a liquid market so where some may say, a pinbar down to 199.60 was stop hunting and for catching weak hands into the shorts to provide more money, who is to say it was not say, HSBC traders really wanting to short but there is far too much interest in going long from RBS, and citibank and The Norinchukin bank and they push price back up to a previous Resistance level to get a better price to continue the short? I am sure someone knows where this is from as I only read it in a post on these boards and think it came from a book............. A broker is watching the market, he sees price at level X and tells his staff to sell 5000... The market absorbs it and pushes down then retraces immediately, so he puts in a nother 20'000 to convince more people to join in the shorts, once he saw they played ball, he, knowing their was too much interest in the rise of the market, then dumps the lot and goes long 50'000........ My point there being, is not everyone trying to gauge what everyone else is doing and where the larger bias is, and have little time, money or indeed confidence to just shake out the shorts/longs as they do not know for sure what is happening next. Obviously in the example, it was based on a particular stock and it was years ago and thus, the only competition/others were in the same floor exchange but nowadays, with the access to markets around the globe from so many avenues, this is no way near as easy to decipher?
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You pick one based on the overall trend / gut / trendline / coin toss and accept in these circumstances, you just can't win em all!
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No not really, just waiting for a solid entry wit the rejection of support circa 195.75 and looking to go long. Basically just login when the market re opens and await the first setup, be it at the open or (hopefully) in an hours time.
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Can anyone recommend chart providers for fx futures?
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Through these guy I guess would be a good choice? http://www.fxmarketspace.com/
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I fear you may be sorely disappointed! :rofl:
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Interesting.......... As I was reading elsewhere, the liquidity was dire and the pairs available low, but, they were older threads so if the above is the case, my interest may be re kindled. I obviously want the the best of both worlds so would like to see the same sort of price action, equal or more liquidity, access to many pairs but predominately Yens, low costs, spreads and commissions and the same hours available. All that with volume and regulation would make me a happy man!
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Well as you asked so nicely..... 1. Less liquidity 2. Only a few currency pairs are actually available. 3. less position size flexibility since futures lot sizes are fixed and larger than what can be had in the spot market. 4. Also, total transactions costs could be higher given commission + spread
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http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f24/thoughts-on-forex-volume-4227.html I'll pass on the tic volume. As for the rest, along with the other threads on another forum I have read, it seems futures are not the way forward. Cheers anyhow
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Hi, I have come to the conclusion that the final missing peg in my trading is volume. As a spot FX trader, I do not have it so my question is......... Anyone tried spot and futures and can tell me if there are any major differences between the two? (that may hindrance my trading rather than enhance with volume)... ie liquidity, size, brokers, spreads, hours etc.... Cheers
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IMO, dump all but the 4hour, if you want confirmation, use the 1hr and no smaller. Bank boys NEVER look under 1 hour. Dump the indicators, remember supply and demand is what the smart money watches and the hardest thing of all, is when you place a trade, if you are trading the 4hr only, WALK AWAY for 4 hours.... For over trading, this will eliminate your excess trades. Of course, you have to prove this to yourself, don't just listen to me!
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Okay, it carried on going back down. I'll let it off now!
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wow, nothing like a 100 pip retrace to ruin your weekend!
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It bounced along the previous one for 11 hours before breaking though... Not overtly confident this one will hold... we'll see. It would be nice to have a trend with some vengeance mind, none of this bouncing about for a brief 100 pip pop then bounce all day again.............
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Damn you insomnia! (it will probably break support now but..............!)
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Where is that firewalker bloke then?
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http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/British_Pound_Speculative_Shorts__COT__1219681227093.html Part of the problem as I see it is no one wants the damn pound but, no one particularly wants the Yen either. We are still in a down trend/spiral which needs something to kick it out.
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damn spikes and retraces are doing my head in!
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Primarily, only on the 4hour. Only atm am I looking at hourlies but yes, discretion through experience too. That's kinda why I have trouble putting my 'plan' in words sometimes!
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I close all Friday afternoon so as not suffer Monday gaps. It opened below Support and had the weekend not been there, I would have taken the long on the prior candle, got stopped out, the SAR when it printed below instead. It sounds to me like you have no faith in your convictions and need to pick a trade and stick with it. Easier said than done I know. As for adding of my trendlines, I will run it till the end of week and if no better, I'm going back to knife juggling!
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Hi guys, Well I have been trying things out with the trendlines on the hourly charts to compliment the 4hour S/R. It was a vain attempt to stop 'catching falling knives' and whilst that reassurance was, well, reassuring, theory and practise are two different things. Backtested the last 6 weeks, paper traded it Monday to test and had family over and went live Tuesday. As you see, Monday was great, Tuesday, the spikes meant the signals were all too late and today, well, with the quick reversal, I just watched 100+ pips reverse back to zero when the total tally old school, would have been 200! Don't worry, we all have shit weeks!