Alcoeus

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but the impression I got was that between his contributions on this board/chatroom, his ebook, and finally the link he posted to the rare original Wyckoff course (public domain), he felt he didn't have much more he could contribute. I've learned alot from him and my thanks go out to him.

Sorry if my pointed wasn't clear. I was trying to point out that the low of the 9th is a test of the weekly open only if you're using the 12-10 contract price for the weekly open and the 3-11 contract price for the low on the 9th (that was also rollover week). When two prices are compared between an instrument of different expiry dates, an adjustment value is usually applied to account for the calender spread - in this case 5pt. With this adjustment, the low of the 9th no longer corresponds to the weekly open (if you start using the new contract that Thursday). I was wondering if you disregard adjusting for calendar spread when comparing contracts with different expiry dates. Because if you do, the difference will add up especially when looking at price values from much earlier in the year. With SPX and SPY I meant to say that the low of the 9th did not correspond to the weekly open respective to their own instrument. Rather with SPX it was more or less identical (minus the cash vs futures price difference) to ES with the 5pt adjustment when using the 03-11 contract starting that Thursday (or merely just looking at the same contract the whole week). BTW I do find your thread interesting, thanks for posting.

FYI, my data shows: Weekly open of the 6th for the 12-10 ES contract - 1221.25 Low of the 9th for the 03-11 contract - 1221.25 Both $SPX and SPY the low of the 9th does not touch the weekly open.

I don't scalp, but I've always been interested in it and have read about it in a number of forums. I can't remember which ET thread, but there were a few that went into detail trying to explain the seemingly counter-intuitiveness of the large lot trades right before reversing. I remember one of the more interesting theories was based on the fact that the big players need to sell or cover large amounts of contracts without moving the market against them. This relates to another related phenomenon where price moves to size (moves to large bid/asks on the DOM). The big players want to see if they are real which gives them an opportunity to dump their lots. So they move the price up to the large bids or asks to test them. If they are real they take them resulting in the large lot prints. They are done now, and the pressure is done so the market reverses. That's what I got out of it. Dougr, I'd be interested in your blog if you could send me the url. Thanks!

Hi All, The COTW video of Sebastian's explanation seems to of been replaced with a newer COTW video. Does anyone have the old video, or know where it is? Thanks!