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zeon
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Everything posted by zeon
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I take it a smaller bar interval helps you pinpoint entries and exits more precisely? Traders (like myself) that sometimes wait for a bar to close have the disadvantage of never making that perfect entry. Are you saying that - if price does something other than what you'd expect it to do - you've misread the chart? I mean, that's what I want to believe. Others have said that I shouldn't try so hard in getting it right. It's just not possible. Or is it (except for these unanticipated news events which can't be foreseen)?
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and the difficulty...
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Hmm, the chart you posted makes my symmetrical triangle look more like a descending one. *sigh* it's so easy to see different things in the market...
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Thanks primavera. I realize that news or other unexpected events may cause something to happen which couldn't be anticipated or wasn't in the chart. That's why I always check my news calendar and adjust my stops if I'm in a position. If I'm in a trade, I'll see what happens, there's a 50:50 chance it'll go my way but I like to lighten my position. But as for technical and non-technical days, I don't know... dbphoenix said he doesn't believe there is noise in the markets, even on a 1-min timeframe. So if there is something "non-technical" occuring, I always get the sense that it's the trader who's reading the chart wrong. The markets are always right. It's whatever belief you had based on what you see or thought you had seen, that is incorrect. Today, everything went according to plan but despite that I didn't make a profit. The plan was to short but as early as a couple of minutes before the session opened price already started to move lower and I had missed my entry. Didn't feel like chasing price, so I stood aside. Then I went long when the hinge formation I posted earlier on broke. False break apparently so I got stopped out. That's it for me today. As you say primavera, regaining confidence will be important because right now it's at a low point.
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Hinge in the works? Volume is also dropping off (although perhaps this is normal for Friday's?). I see Bernanke speaking within one hour, looks like that will slow down. I've often noticed triangles forming before news. Gambling on a breakout is another thing tho.
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Yes, I second that. And heretodaygone..., I've found your two sites together less interesting than any single post dbphoenix has made.
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I believe I switched it on though. If somebody has trouble posting to it, please PM me. As for errors... I make them a lot and not taking a long today was indeed one of them. But if you weren't long - like I - isn't it normal you would expect to take a short at each resistance level on the way up? At least that's what I did, figuring this is a bear market and shorting on rallies is the thing to do right? Final question: how does all this pan out with the hinge formation you posted couple of days ago. You said the break lower wasn't a good sign. But since that 'break' we've seen nothing but massive buying, on Tuesday and again today.
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I don't think I quite understand your chart though. If I am understanding this right, there is no support below 1720? I took a trade on the ES today, but because your chart was the NQ so I'll post the setup here too. The same thing occurred on the NQ anyway so it's all the same. Your last rectangle was 1700-1710. I had support around 1707 actually, so around the mid of that. Then almost exactly one hour into the session price went down on heavy volume (see qqqq chart) and broke that support. The next bars were all small and on low volume, a retracement right? So why does price rise then? I fear I am losing touch with reality here.
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I thought of taking profits quicker, but I don't want to be a scalper and the purpose of trading is to cut your losses short, not your profits right? I mean I had no exit signal on this particular trade... no volume peak to indicate buyers were coming in, I had no support in the vicinity and everything looked okay to continue selling. Still don't know what happened back there, but it sure swept me of my feet.
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I don't know what else to feel. I can't think of anything else I've ever speant so much time in, with so little in return. Sorry if I'm sounding like a whiner. I suppose the markets are different now than a year ago. I've given back a whole lot in the last two months, and not just because I have been long. In fact, most of my trades have been shorts.
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Ok guys, I've opened a blog, for anybody who likes to participate they are more then welcome to do so... I could use some help Today I was short and things were looking good but totally out of nowhere came an upmove, I had a trade nicely in profit and was about to trail price, but then it happened. My stops were still at their original place. Instead of a profit I'm now sitting on a loss. Not to mention how I feel :bang head:
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Yes guys I'm aware of this. But I had always assumed this to be more valid of the mechnical approach. Not that I'm striving for 80-90% win rate or so, but I thought that by correctly learning to analyze the market, I'd be in better shape to understand these things. So everybody agrees that on what I observed? Perhaps I can take comfort in that, but sometimes these things just sweep my off my feet and I'm like "eh, how could this happen?!"
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Question here, one of the last posts before I open a blog - promise. Support drawn = pink line. Price is breaking below support, volume retraces on the way back up and forms an upthrust. I shorted (bar in yellow rectangle)! The volume seemed okay and the bar closed off the highs, suggesting supply is coming into the market. This is kind of my problem, despite how much time I spend analyzing the market in real time I'm often confronted with something that happens that's not "according to plan". Sorry for the crappy chart, Bigcharts doesn't show premarket data. A similar situation is visible on the Nasdaq. Got me here:confused:
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I'm not that familiar with TICK or TRIN, but I believe understand what they represent (advance & decline issues right?). Unfortunately there's no such equivalent for the S&P, only for NYSE and NASD. Any idea why this is?
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We just reached resistance from prior in the day... I guess it wasn't wishful thinking after all. Sure wish I'd taken the long though :doh:
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I think I did the right thing by closing out my short on the ES earlier. However, I was contemplating taking a long there on the re-test but I was too late and the right signal didn't occur. I wanted to see a hammer-like formation form but price jumped up and by the time I felt like pressing the buy button price had already gone up and I didn't feel like chasing it. But suppose I did take the long entry... how could I determine my target? Surely the next R would be wishful thinking? You never know ofcourse, but if you say S and R are your targets, do you mean only when you are trading with the longer term trend, are regardless of that? Because in going against the trend I've experienced on several occasions that price does follow the path towards the next S/R level but usually fails to reach it and then reverses before breaking down in the other direction.
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If that was the selling climax, then it looks like we just had a re-test on lower volume. But the nasdaq made lower low while the ES just stopped at about exactly the same level. This is my problem, realizing this is a re-test in real time... I can only do so after price starts to move up, so I'm always chasing price. I noticed price trying to go lower... a downbar. The next upbar closed off the highs, so no buying yet. However the next bar volume comes in big time and there she goes! Other than (a) taking a gamble that price won't break through or (b) waiting for price to rise and chasing price with a worse entry, how can you pin-point the exact entry? As I'm typing this, the ES just went up 5 points in one bar! So you need to have very triggerhappy fingers, or you needed to be prepared to take the risk...
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Yes exactly, sometimes the next S/R is pretty close and price reacts of that. But I think today I did the sensible thing by closing my short position. Around the time ES touched support the NQ did too as you say. I appreciate the input you've already given me and I'm sure others have benefit from the discussion too. Great idea about the blog, I'll think it over. Will have a look around the other blogs to see if they get some attention or not.
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By "see what happens" do you mean that you never have a target in mind? I closed out my short now although there wasn't really a selling climax in place. I normally exit on volume spikes or when price is bouncing off support. And it looks like it's reacting off support now. I believe I followed my plan and executed it properly. But in the end, by doing so and despite all the profitable trades, the net profit isn't that big because my losers are in comparison to my winners about half as big. You could say at least I'm making profits but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers, but somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect. Apart from some textbooks that claim your winners should always be twice as big as your losers, I wonder how it is for other trades in real life.
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I meant that people who didn't have a stop in place or so, must have been pretty pissed right now. Otoh, those who were long from yesterday evening had a bit of luck... Anyway, I faded and shorted the ES from 1306. There was an upthrust according to my chart just before the open and I just closed out at 1297 for 9 points.
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Apparently at a very high level compared to yesterday's close:shocked:. That must have caught a few people out.
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I like the analyses and the time you put in them is well worth it imo. Thanks for your contributions. One remark though, don't you mean a buying climax at J?
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Habi's chart defines R at that level indeed, but mine didn't. In fact, I only had support drawn around 130... so absent of any resistance lines I considered that 'rejection' on high volume actually to be a positive signal that selling was over and that buyers were going to take control. I'm starting to see where I was wrong know. But the origin of my incorrect analysis seem to come from drawing support at 128.50. If I had taken that short, I would have closed it when price failed to break 128.50 straight away. There is some sort of consolidation there and because price doesn't "act" the way I want it, I'd have closed the trade. Probably just before the break. But isn't that what you've been advocating too? That if the trade doesn't do what you expect from it, close it and re-enter perhaps later. I would've wanted to see a break of 128.50; instead we kept above that level for a reasonable amount of time. Considering this is my support level I'd have looked at that and said "aaah another test on even lower volume: sellers must be done!". You must wonder how I manage to get these things completely the other way around :doh:
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Sorry wrong chart! Attached the correct one now... Probably not. Perhaps I need to get my head around this and think "what would I do if I was already in a position now?". Having said that, if I was short I'd still have closed out. Which in turn, opens the possibility for a re-entry... ehm... but are you saying you would've stuck with the same one and only trade from '3' till the markets close? How could you have known after '5' that price was not going to go back all the way up to 130? Yes, volume was declining on the way up, but if you wait to see that happen each time, you'll always exit too late. Somehow, exiting too late feels worse then exiting too early.
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True, this all clinges to the fact where you see support. But even if I didn't have my line drawn from before around 128.5, I'd still take '5' as a failure to make a new low. There is in comparison to '4' lesser volume. On a 1-minute chart this is clearly visible. So what I see is an attempt to break support around 128.50. Twice that is rejected and than on 'X' we have a 'test' after price climbed back up above support. There you have the long signal. All of this hinges on the line I've drawn and perhaps that is what's causing me so much confusion.
