zeon

I'm sorry if this wasn't clear, but the 1342 level comes from the 19th and the previous day low. The fact that the 'selling climax bar' (sorry candle) closes above the line isn't a coincidence for me. It shows that traders are interested in keeping price above this level, hence the buying pressure that comes in. I'm not sure how this relates to VSA but I thought upthrust for example are a typical example of candles that spike outside the range, but close within. Hmm... that must have been very coincidential then? Do you mean the classic pivots levels?

Okay, you're right, there's no knowing whether it is actually thé selling climax, but I was just describing what I felt or thought in real time... obviously it's only 100% sure whether something is a selling climax or not in hindsight. If I don't have much reference to how "high" volume is, then I look to the previous day to compare how "huge" the volume really was. That way I have a means of determining what "the average volume" looks like. Next to that, the first bar at the open is usually pretty high volume because the market just opened. Next to the down bar itself there's an upbar next on comparatively low volume. This is usually confirmation of the selling climax.

No problem, everybody can see my charts I'm just don't know which one you are refering to so I'll post all those I've posted elsewhere today here as well. Ok, each to their own! Nothing wrong with that, but I prefer taking trades of S/R alone. Anything "in the middle of nowhere" has me spooked... I feel like I'm trading without anything to hang on to. Otoh, perhaps I'm clinging too much to S/R, I am indeed pretty lost without it Attached charts: ES_3 = support at 1342 from the previous day and also from overnight around 1344'ish ES_4 = on the 19th, 1342 proved to be resistance. After we broke higher the next couple of days, we have returned to this area. So it should act as support. (R turning into S and the other way around) ES_5 = why I see resistance at 1358-1360 (previous days) ES_6 = my analysis of the selling climax and re-test Feel free to comment.

Forgot to say - when you asked me about resistance - that I posted this earlier on: I wrote "potential" at 1349-1350, because there's an area of consolidation from overnight there. This can be provide resistance, but it doesn't have to. I'm more convinced about 1357-1359 than this area. But by the looks of it (right now) it is offering resistance... so at least I got something right.

About 20 minutes after the open. I've attached another chart where I annotated the bars where I paid most attention to.

Thanks, I see you take resistance as the upper line, I tend to define a zone. On your chart, this means I have support around 1358-1360. So at least I got that right then...

Correct, and since price opened well below resistance, the odds were higher that is going to be drawn to support first. Which is what it did, but then it went 5 points lower than 1342... and the fact that it later got back above 42 but then lower again makes it all the more confusing whether or not there actually is support there.

Yes it's helpful, but two things: (a) I couldn't call it a selling climax if we weren't in a downtrend, so yes I noticed that, but selling climax & re-tests have to occur in a downtrend by definition. (b) My line is about the same as yours around 1342. Indeed from yesterday's low, but that's also the high on the 19th. And when price breaks resistance this usually acts as support, so this was another reason for me to consider 1342 important support. I don't see it illusionary because it looks to me as if you've drawn the same line right? I agree, S/R tend to be magnets. Which I why I take longs off support and shorts of resistance, I don't like trading in mid-air. But 1342 seems to act as support after the open, price bounces off there. And then later on, I thought I noticed a re-test... I'm not quite sure how the fact that we've been in a downtrend invalidates the setup though.

Resistance is in the zone 1358-1360. From yesterday and the day before...

Ok, first of all we have the high of the 19th, this should now act as support. And the low from the previous day. They are both at 1342.50. The upper support line is from the overnight action, but I pay less attention to that. However, a re-test can be higher than the selling climax, and in this case that seemed to be the case.

No, there's no shooting star. I didn't say this was scenario (a) where I'd be looking for a short trade. In fact, this is the opposite. This is scenario (b) where I'm looking to go long off support. Sorry about the charts, it's the only way they fit exactly on my screen. I can't find much chart exporting options in Sierra Charts other than 'copy to bitmap'. Edit: please find attached the same chart with timing on it.

Okay, so we open today around 1348 and immediately start to move lower. The selling increased on the way down and candle just before A has the highest volume of all. This candle also closes off the lows, with the low exactly on support at 1342.50 (lower pink line). The candle at 'A' has slightly less volume (but it's still huge), and this time buyers price price above the support line after it dropped below it to 1341.50. The next candle moves us up back to 1344 on lower volume than the two previous bars. So selling looks exhausted, as we apparently manage to go higher without the need of much volume. Notice how all of the upbars - there are three of those - have lower volume than the previous candle. So this is what I'd identify as 'the technical rally'. At 'B' we have news, so the huge volume here is a bit out of context and we ignore it. After that price waffles around 1345-1347 before touching the upper line of the support area at 1344.50. The two previous candles all closed near the low but at 'C' volume is enough to make price bounce a bit off 1344.50. With the next candle being an upbar closing at the high, on very low volume (actually the lowest we've seen all day since the open), this makes 'C' a succesful re-test. Selling pressure evaporated and the candle after C is the long signal. I've gone over this chart three times now, and despite how I look at it, I still am convinced about what I felt and what I saw in realtime. Even looking at it in hindsight, I would still see the same. I can't get my get around looking at it differently, because all that I've said here, is in line with the definitions I've made for myself.

If you still consider all these to be general, then I'm not quite sure what you mean. Perhaps you could give me a definition of something to illustrate how specific one can be. I'll go over the chart again, although I don't think there's much I can add...

Not exactly... the lower line is the important support for me. But I figured 'C' to be a retest because sometimes re-tests do occur at a somewhat higher level than before. Like the chart Eiger posted yesterday or the day before I think... So, if you're looking in real-time and you're observing the candle at C, volume is less than at the selling climax AND price manages to close higher. My question is, in this given situation, why not go long here?

Here we are... Shooting star: a type of candlestick forms where the upper shadow is much longer than the real body and the lower Shadow is small or non-existent. The kind of shooting star I'm looking for appears at a resistance level and not in mid-air and after a directional upmove has occurred. The upper shadow is a sign that there are a lot of sellers above that level that manage to push price lower. The best shooting stars occur when price pierces resistance, but then moves back below it. Resistance: this is an area or zone where sellers previously managed to overcome buyers and turn price around. It can be seen as something as a ceiling that prevents price from going higher. However, there's no such thing as guarantuees because resistance can be "breached" temporarily only to come back lower some time later. So you need to see what price does when it approaches resistance. Bar: I don't know what more to say, than that a bar is part of what a chart is composed of. Bars like candles or like line charts are all means of representing price. Down: when price is going down, it's moving lower than what is was in the previous timeperiod. So in scenario (a), if the previous bar closed at 1350, then we short when we see the next bar going down 1 point. This is the entry with a market order. Re-test: this occurs after a selling climax has taken place. A successful re-test means that what was previously identified as preliminary support is now confirmed to be support. This might not mean price will go up straight away, it might go sideways for some time, but eventually it should start to move higher. Lower: volume is lower when it is relative to the volume on the bar or candle that you are comparing it with, at least 1k lower Selling climax: when after a prolonged (this depends on the timeframe one is observing, selling climaxes occur on every timeframe) downmove, buyers manage to sweep sellers and the selling abruptly comes to an end. This usually is only temporarily, as then a "technical rally" follows: this means that there are momentarily no sellers left to push price lower. The selling climax doesn't need to be the low of the move or it doesn't even mean that price is going to reverse straight away. It also depends on whether there's support in the vicinity or not. That's why going long on a selling climax on support has higher probability of succeeding than just going long randomly. A selling climax usually occurs when the selling accelerates and the sharpness of the downmove increases. The price level where the selling climax takes place, can be identified as preliminary support. Huge: volume is 'huge' when it's in comparison to the normal average volume on the choosen timeframe at least 1.5 times as high. Support: an area, zone where previously buyers managed to overcome sellers and turn price area. Support is where I'm looking to buy, and usually has been a previous swing point. Support can be seen on various timeframes and there's major/minor support, etc. The support I'm looking for to trade off is usually from the previous days. I feel these levels are more reliable than others. Nonetheless, I always note important support levels if they are outside the last couple of days range. These are the definitions I've come up with after all the time I spent reading books and studying charts. They may not be the same for everyone, but they work for me. Well, at least they used to work... :\

Okay, just give me some time and I'll write down my definitions.

Eiger and jjtrader, could you guys perhaps have a look at the chart I posted in the Real Time Price Action thread. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/real-time-price-action-clue-to-3494.html It seems like you both have support around the same level where I had it. So perhaps I'm not completely wrong after all, but I'm still having issues (cleary)...

Ehm... I think I understand what I'm seeing. But if I'm wrong about what I'm seeing, than I guess I either don't understand it or it's just one of these trades that go wrong nomatter how good the analysis is. Let's say I didn't take trades (even if they aren't real), I'd still be looking for the pattern. For example, I have several 'setups', two of them are the following: (a) shooting star at resistance, short on the next bar if price goes down (b) re-test on lower volume after a selling climax (on huge vol) on support Today, I saw (b) in real time. So either it wasn't a selling climax, or it wasn't a re-test, or my support was incorrect. I'm not sure what else there is to understand to be honest...

Thank you guys for posting your numbers, I'll try to do the same each day. Perhaps this might help to find out where I'm going wrong. Apparently, I'm seeing support at levels where others aren't :doh:

Thanks for your advice, but I did that three years ago, then I came up with something where I managed to have reasonable success with for some time, but the 'profits' become thin since +/- August last year and then basically since December I'm losing money. I've gone over everything and I can't seem to find anything that I'm doing wrong. Okay, I have taken trades that weren't part of the plan occasionally. But that's another thing, the discipline. At least I know where the failures are coming from. But when suddenly more than half of your 'plan-trades' turn into losers, ... Take today's example, I'm sure this would've been a profitable trade last year. Have the markets changed? Have I stopped following my rules? Has my system stopped working? I don't know, but I know I need something to hold on to and I can't imagine going back to square zero, when I put so much time and effort in all of this in the past. I am posting charts and trades here and in my blog, so other people might help pinpoint the origin of why the trade is failing. Because to be honest, I can't see what I'm doing wrong.

The S/R point comes from the low from the previous day, and the high on the 19th. My prepost levels were (and are) these: support 1342-1344 resistance 1357-1359 potential resistance 1349-1350 Pre-market plan was to go long on a re-test on support.

I'm only taking papertrades. And I have pretty much defined what I am looking for in real time... but nomatter how much time I put into these things, in realtime I seem to be wrong a whole lot of the time.

As this is the real time price action thread, I'm going to ask this straight away! Looking at the ES, this is what I am currently observing: The pink lines are where I consider support to be. It looks like the lines were drawn around the right place, because there is some action going on there. (A) selling climax on support on high volume! (B) there's the news about the housing market © a re-test of the selling climax on lower volume AND the bar closes well off the lows... this is THE long entry, right?! And then price goes lower. I believe it was Eiger who posted a very similar analysis yesterday. I'd really like to know where I'm going wrong this time. Because no matter how much time I study charts, and do my analysis, in real time I'm always taking losing trades.

Thanks, but what I meant to say was that VSA seems to focus a lot on entries and not on exits. Although in my experience they are as important as entries, if not more important. You can have a perfect entry but if you don't know how to manage the trade it can still turn out into a loss. Exiting on 'the first sign of weakness' usually means you're exiting too early. I was curious about how other traders manage their position. This is just a suggestion, but perhaps those who post these excellent analyses regularly, also add some information about what happened AFTER the entry, and how what kind of signals they would consider valid to take profits. Having predetermined profit targets is something I stopped believing in. The market is too dynamic for something like that to work imho.

Thanks, but I read all that. It also states "If you have joined together different futures contract delivery months and want the prices at the time of rollover to match, then the usual method is to adjust the prior data, that exists before the rollover, by the difference between the prices. To determine the amount to adjust by, look at the settlement prices on the rollover day for both the new and the old contracts. Calculate the difference between these and round it off to the nearest tick. This is the amount you should Add to the old contract data in the file." Unfortunately, this is where the problem comes in. I'm observing a 25 point offset in the NQH8 and the NQM8. So the amount that should be added is 25. But in the NQM8 the offset is in January 25, but in March 50. I've never experienced this before, could something be wrong with my feed? If I look on the ES chart, is perfectly normal. There's about a 6 point offset, but it's the same on all days of the last couple of months. However on my NQ chart is doesn't add up properly. I've contacted my broker and they are unaware of any issues.