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zeon
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Everything posted by zeon
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I'm pretty convinced that no matter how much time I spend in front of the screen, that question will not get solved by studying the relationship between price and volume. :\ You seem to assume that everyone can find their own answers in the chart without help from the outside. I'm glad you managed to do so, but perhaps others don't possess that talent. I didn't realize my posts were disturbing anyone.
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No, but like I said, I focus on the first hour and replay the action slower (or at realtime speed) when price approaches my predetermined price levels. In your blog you mentioned yourself you didn't "care" much what price does in between support and resistance. And like I said, I'm also observing the market closely each and every day. I'm sorry, but what exactly brought this on? I don't recall mentioning anything about my own problems lately, my latest post was nothing more than a general question about dow theory. :\
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For every 5 hours I watch the market "live" I replay 2 days, which takes me about 30-45 minutes per day. I pay more attention to the open (replay slow) and fast forward (replay accelerated several times) when price is around lunchtime because it's usually drifting anyway.
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Not as much as I spend time behind the screen during the market open hours. I also spend considerable time going over the things posted in your blog for a second or third time and reading books Wyckoff wrote (as you can see from my latest post).
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I still have Sierra installed, if that's what your asking. Although to be honest I quite like Bigcharts for saving my EOD annotations. But I don't see how that relates to my previous question?
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Db - not sure where to ask - but how much do you follow Dow, Schabacker and Wyckoff? I mean if DOW theory are the fundamentals to build upon, than why is Wyckoff making fun of it in his articles? I've just come across this piece of text. I thought you said somewhere sometime that the confirmation (or lack of) confirmation from the averages is an important principle. But Wyckoff writes: "the so-called DOW method is as modern as an ice-wagon, and just as cumbersome. It is as clear as mud." and later "it is of no use in actual trading compared with modern ways of judging the market known to many people".... "People who for the first time become attracted to the Dow theory have been known to grin like a boy who was picked up a horsehoe; but the longer they study it, the less they are inclined to grin."
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Yes... but where can I read how the exact calculation is made?
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And what about the strength in the transports? There doesn't seem to be a downtrend here...
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Recognizing it in real time is one thing, actually trading yet another...
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There was an article in TheStreet that mentioned a similar thing: small-caps aren't participating. Next to that, they note that the volume has been below average since the January lows...
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I'm looking at the NQ and ES, mostly all of the day... I might not be trading with real money anymore, but last year I was pretty active on the ES. I'm still comparing both markets to see what makes you prefer the NQ.
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Wow, that 14400 projection was spot on. If you have more where that came from, keep it coming. It's hard to find good information on the web these days. Most trading related stuff is about spread betting and indicators and system sellers crap.
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Good idea. I wonder why nobody who's trading is based on the principles laid out by Wyckoff is using these 'projection methods'. Although I don't find much references to it further in the book I'm reading, it still surprised me because I think he didn't do much "predicting". But if your projection targets than I guess that's exactly what you're doing.
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Been reading some of Wyckoff's articles... I came across this, but I'm not quite sure how to interpret this. I didn't think Wyckoff had targets are made predictions as to how far a move could stretch or where his exits might be. I couldn't find any references to 'projecting' targets in this thread nor in the excellent PDF files dbphoenix provided. Judging distance Another important adjunct in stock trading, known by very few people, is how to judge the number of points the averages or any group of stocks or any individual stock should move in a certain direction, subject to continual confirmation, correction of perhaps contradiction, as indicated by market action.
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I posted this a week or so ago. Bigger timeframe and all. Doesn't it look like we had a double bottom confirmed now? I mean, this week the NQ broke much higher, the ES is back to 1400 and the DOW almost to 13000...
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I hope you don't mind me picking up this post from earlier in this thread. But why materials and energy? I probably don't know enough about fundamentals...
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I agree this sounds all very simple. But most books I read consider scaling out as a less profitable strategy in the long run. This strategy also assumes that you only take one trade a day and try and maximize it's potential. Which I fine I suppose as far as it goes. In trending days, this will keep you in the market with at least a small part of your position till the end. But in ranging days it might mean several stop outs at break-even. Perhaps it's just not possible to find a 'one size fits all' exit strategy.
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Perhaps we could also do the same for exits? I've had a go at it myself, but I can't see a reason to hold on till the close. I'm assuming we went long either at "1": break of the supplyline after a selling climax on support or at "2": after a re-test on lower volume. After price makes a little swing low we can connect the low of the re-test with this low (the bar right next to "2") and draw a demandline. "3": first exit, very cautious because there's only a break of the demandline (which was quite steep in the first place), and we're not even at resistance "3a": a new demandline can be drawn, there's again demand coming in (high volume) and price continues upwards "4": price is at resistance but fails to break through, this is a nice target to exit or lighten your position "5": break of the second demandline after a failure to breach and two bars later price falls on decent volume with the bars closing on the lows. Exit the rest of your long position. Because of the high volume at "5" and because it drops back a couple of points, I can see no reason to stay in. Though some people might trade by leaving one contract on till the close with their stop at breakeven I'll continue with this assumption: After "5" there's a congestion on decreasing volume. I would think this means lack of demand, because prices fail to rise. However there's no continuation to the downside and prices rise back to resistance and break higher at "6" (confirmation by volume and bar closes at the highs). "7": looks like a test of resistance now turned into support "8": break of the demandline, high volume: a lot of supply "9": back at support and end of the day.
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db, would you classify this as a springboard or is the volume pattern not right? It doesn't exactly seem to lead to much of an advance... if I understood correctly it should lead to an energy release. In this however, I can only see an attempt to go lower which is rejected immediately (high volume) but going higher fails as well... not much potential then in this pattern
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Aren't the first two green dots more like a (calculated) gamble? The trend is still down and there hasn't been a higher high, let alone a failure to make a lower low (at least on the first green dot). That and the supplylines...
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Hmm, I must admit I previously had support around there but removed it as of last Friday :doh: since price just went through it like a knife through butter and I figured my assumption that it would provide resistance on the way up was wrong.
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Thanks for answering my question. If I understand correctly I should have waited, or if I insisted on taking the early entry, my stop should be below the low of the '3'. As for aggressiveness, I thought entering on the re-test is waiting for more confirmation... entering early would be at the selling climax itself. One final question though, all of this is happening 'in the middle of nowhere'. I have my support drawn around 1376. I didn't want to mention it myself, because I thought that might be the reaction of some members, but I couldn't find much of this in Wyckoffs texts. This is why I'm wondering if this is a good trade. When price failed to break through resistance decisively, perhaps my bias should've been towards the down side...
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I'm sorry to be skeptical about this 'spinning top' business but this is a 2-min chart. I'm used to 5-min charts but dbphoenix suggested I go to 1-minute bars. I had some problem with that so for the time being I'm watching 2 and 5-min charts next to eachother. The fact is that this kind of candle can appear anywhere and if that would be a reason to get out I'm sure I could find loads of examples where this 'spinning top' is nothing more than a pause. It reminds me of the VSA people that said I should get out of a long position after two downbars/candles... Thanks for the answer though, it's always interesting to see how other people think.
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For the last couple of weeks I've been trying really hard to get a better understanding of the market through price and volume, and the concepts laid out by Wyckoff and dbphoenix. In real time, somehow something always bites me in the tail though. This is a chart of the ES of today. I had my focus on 1387 because that was the low of Friday and as price opened below that level I was looking for resistance there. 'x' looks like a break above support from the previous day, and if I were to trade breakouts this might have been a long. I don't, but anyway my focus was then on potential longs. However at 1000 price fell back below support and after it made a swing high around 1030 I drew a supplyline (blue). My focus now switched to determining when the downmove would end. So the first thing one would look for is a potential selling climax. If I'm correct this occurred at '1': high volume and demand is coming in, which can be seen not only because the bar closes off the lows but also because price manages to move up 2 points. However the demandline is not broken and at '2' we make a lower low and the volume is huge this time with again some demand. At '3' we have a failure to make a lower low and this bar closes noticeably on the highs. The volume is also lower and with a selling climax in the background this looks like the re-test. The next bar breaks the supplyline and gives us a first potential long entry ('A'). After that volume dries up but price stays horizontally. At 'B' the downtrend is decisively broken as price moves up and volume confirms. If you're not in at 'A', then 'B' is another long entry. So far so good... ... but then we plunge down on high volume and a bar that closes near the lows around 1230. Here I am again, thinking 'what the hell just happened here?' :\ Feedback as always greatly appreciated...
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As for the talk about the buying climax recently... I was wondering what the enormous volume peak yesterday near the close could mean. I had actually closed my papertrade long 1 minute before the sudden jump that moved us from 1847 to 1867 and higher :doh: Could this be a buying climax or has this more to do with news or the fact that people are closing their position near the end of the day? The chart is from BigCharts, but my data feed gives me a similar volume rise, which is in the context of intraday trading really extraordinary...
