AgeKay

Have you tried comparing certain days of the week? I am looking at another market where 85% of the time, Monday's range is smaller than that of the previous Friday. If you combine this with your analysis you might increase your confidence interval to 90% or more. Just an idea.

Yes, I used TimeSnapper Classic when there was only the free version available. Don't know what the professional version has to offer but TimeSnapper Classic should be enough for your purposes and its still free. TimeSnapper - make timesheets a snap

no, i have not yet, but i will.

You're right, I mixed those two up when I copied it from their webpage. FESX overnight margin is 3300€ and FDAX overnight margin is 14700€.

Thanks for pointing this out. I will check what the actual returns are. Do you know how I would trade the reduced volatility? I think that might be better than fading it.

You can't use it for stops since you don't know the high and low of the day until the end of the day. All you know is that the range is going to be smaller than the previous trading day. This is why I thought about trading volatility.

Those idiots. You can make the government make anything you want if you cry loud enough.

I found out that in a certain market 85% of the time the range (day's high - day's low) of Monday is lower than the range of Friday. Do you know of any way to trade this observation? Something like VIX does not exist for this market, so my first idea was to short options to profit from decreased volatility, but I am not sure if paying the bid/ask spread would be worth it. What are your opinions on this or do you have a better idea?

Well, I had the exact same error message as the OP and I couldn't visit any web page on this forum before I completed the data in the profile.

I didn't know that. It should be more prominent, maybe an additional button below each post or below the avatar.

I had the same problem. I fixed it by going to http://www.traderslaboratory.com and then click on the menu "User CP" -> "Edit Profile". I then had to reenter my country, birthday and gender information since that was gone and it would not let me save without this information. So I guess, this information might have been accidentally deleted?

I like the idea of voting with thumb up and thumb down buttons where the current "thanks" would equal a thumb up. You could then show the delta (thumbs up - thumbs down) just for information like digg and youtube does. You could then use this information to highlight "best posts" on the front page and review posts where 80% of votes are thumbs down.

I have exactly the same problem.

I actually tried that once in a casino. I was betting on 'red' and it took 16 'black's in a row to blow me out. It actually kept going until there were 21 'black's in a row. I just thought to my self: What the... Anyway, I learned the lesson to never double up again. It's the same when it comes to trading. You might backtest your strategy 10 years but then comes on day you have never seen before and you lose everything. So I would avoid it if you want to do this long term. I have thought a lot about position sizing and also done a lot of analysis on it and came to the conclusion that a big variance in your position size will have a negative effect on your results (due to the unpredictability of your trading results). You don't need varying position size to trade profitably. Sure after you are comfortable with your trading strategy then you might want to tweak it a bit. Regarding Tharp, as far as I know, he is still not trading professionally, he makes his money by selling his "trading education" and coaching (he does coach big professional traders, but he does not teach them how to trade, he helps them with their psychology)...

Sorry for my ignorance and thanks for the clarification!

I just watched the overview video of SnagIt on the website and found it interesting that it says "Created with Camtasia Studio". I guess they don't dogfood their own software. I use OneNote by Microsoft for screen clippings. It's like EverNote but for users who like to use folders and categories. Screen clippings are actually just a small feature and it has a lot of very cool features. For example, while it can't record videos of your screen, it can record videos from your webcam and audio from your microphone and it uses notes that you make during the recording as bookmarks.

Hey BlowFish, I don't know whether this issue is still current with you since you opened this thread some time ago (btw, you were right about the property prices dropping), but you could have a look at Eurex' IPD UK Annual All Property Index Futures (PUKA). Not only is it futures, but the contract size is just £50k which makes it easier to reflect your actual portfolio. Don't have any idea about the actual liquidity though (it says minimum quote size is 20 contract [=£1 million in value] which isn't too bad for hedging). I just heard about it when Eurex announced it some time ago.

I just ran this through Tunatic and it returned "Holding On" from Ferry Corsten feat. Shelley Harland. And then searched this on YouTube and found a 8min version of it: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FqWzJsM_2I]YouTube - Ferry Corsten - Holding On[/ame]

I second that. There is no advantage of MP over volume.

In my opinion, the best way to trade any kind of support/resistance (i.e. tops/bottoms) is to watch the sell market orders vs. buy market orders (also known as "delta") at that point in time at the support/resistance. It makes no sense shorting a top when you see a lot of buy market orders. As someone pointed out earlier, in this case they might take the market a bit higher until everyone who shorted at the resistance pukes and then it will go back down again, but you will see this when you see the sell market orders hitting the market.

Unless you want to connect directly with Eurex (in which case you should just contact them) you will likely need an intermediary platform that feeds your application the data and routes the orders to the exchange. I recommend X_Trader from Trading Technologies, but you'll get access to their API only with X_Trader Pro which will cost you a bit...

Before being disgusted at everyone who receives bonuses even though their bank is being bailed out, have you considered that a few of these people had actually made their bank money? For example, there might have been 10 people in one department doing market making in currencies which made 100 million. Do these people not deserve their bonuses? Of course, it is out of question that the loan department where another 100 people work that lost several hundred million or even billion does not deserve bonuses. Is it fair that bank employees that have nothing to do with all of this get laid off? No! But this is the risk you take being an employee. You let others decide...

There is no "slippage" in trading. You make it sound it's like this magical loss you take when you trade. Learn how the order matching process works. When you use a buy market order, you buy at the ask when it arrives at the exchange. When you use a sell market order, you sell at the bid when it arrives at the exchange Of course, the bid or ask may change in between the time you click the button and the order hits the exchange, but this isn't slippage, this is the market changing. You will generally not experience this when you send your order automatically just when the inside market has changed. It generally trades there for a few seconds unless it's a thin market. So in reality, you just pay the bid-ask spread when using market orders. To get a realistic fill, you would check the bid/ask X ms after you have placed your order where X is the number of ms you think it takes your order to arrive at the exchange.

I would rather look at the ES. I haven't looked at it for some time, but FESX used to follow the ES tick by tick during ES' RTH.

James, is that the reason I just received the newsletter "The Secret to Beating This Bear Market" by Bernie Schaeffer from Traders Laboratory? You can't be serious suggesting this is a valuable service!?? It's obvious they are targeting gullible inexperienced "savvy investors" (quote from the newsletter).