DbPhoenix

Depends on what you mean by "analysis". If you mean following price from transaction to transaction in order to detect imbalances in buying pressure and selling pressure that will move price one way or another, then yes. However, you need not follow price tick by tick in order to detect these imbalances (though you'll be ahead of everybody else if you do). You can also detect them on a daily chart or a weekly chart. The principles are the same.

Could be five years. Could be never. Depends in large part on how many detours the wannabe takes, how many dead-ends he winds up in, how susceptible he is to the con. If he's blessed with common sense, a finely-tuned bullshit detector, and a basic understanding of what an auction is, shouldn't take more than a couple of months.

I found this post on "Re: Chart Patterns: Reliable?" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month May, 2009"

Never mind. Found a way around the problem.

The original course is available from the Library of Congress (it was never put into book form, as was common back then with regard to courses, which is why so many of them are lost to us) and has been uploaded here. The basics of the basics are provided here in the stickies. The core of the course, to me, is Section 7 (below). Therefore, regardless of what you decide to do with regard to the entire course, I suggest you read the first stickie, Wyckoff Lite, to become at least acquainted with the underlying concepts. A great deal of what has been written about Wyckoff, particularly during the resurgence of interest in the "classics" over the past decade or so, is at best inaccurate and at worst blatantly untrue. Many traders will tell you, for example, that they are "Wyckoff traders" simply because they've decided to incorporate "volume" into their trading, and that by doing so they are employing the "Wyckoff Method". Volume, however, as you will learn, is only a part of the approach and isn't even necessary to applying it. You will also come across a wide range of approaches that claim to be "based on Wyckoff". However, since nearly all of what's been written with regard to technical analysis over the past hundred years is based on either Wyckoff or Schabacker, this claim doesn't mean a great deal. If you want to know what is legitimately Wyckoff, it makes sense for you to study Wyckoff himself, not what I nor anybody else says about him. In this way, you can build a conceptual framework for trading and investing that is uniquely yours. Wyckoff Analysis 1930-31.pdf

Let's bring the weeklies into this: Trend, Support and Resistance, Volume . . .

Since you've reached what you've pegged as the "lower limit" of the range of interest, don't forget to check on the group of which AAPL is a part, as well as the major market of which it is a part (i.e., the Nasdaq). This is a step commonly left out by those who believe -- or who have been led to believe -- they're following the "Wyckoff Method". As a result, the wrong conclusions are drawn and the trade often ends up a loser, leading the trader to conclude that this approach "doesn't work". As for the Nasdaq, assessing the strength or weakness of a major market average is a process that consists of several components. Which component one begins with is not especially important as long as they are all eventually included. Determining the trend, of course, is essential, but one must remember that it's timeframe-dependent, that is, we have -- or have had -- an "uptrend" since March, but the trend over a longer timeframe is still down. If, however, we are interested in this particular time segment and this particular uptrend, we must at some point find support and resistance, and the sooner the better. First we look for the important trading ranges. Here I've highlighted one because it is the most influential for this purpose. It finds support at the last swing low before the November low, and the top of the range which precedes the upthrust in January acts as resistance to the rally attempt in February. Finally, it is this resistance level which acts to alter the course of the March rally to a more "north-westerly" direction at the end of March/early April. Now we look at this short-term trend and the channel that it forms: Since the trend is up, the demand or support line is drawn first. Then a parallel line is created in order to act as an "overbought position" line, i.e., a line which shows when price has wandered too far from the trend. This can also act as a supply line (Wyckoff didn't much care what the trader called these things as long as he understood what they were and what they were for). Note that as price approaches the November swing high, trading activity increases but price doesn't make a great deal of progress. In other words, buyers are trying to push price higher, but sellers are throwing supply at them (hence the increase in trading activity, i.e., higher volume). Buyers can't absorb all of this and price rolls over, eventually falling out of the channel. Wyckoff cautions, however, to focus not just on the break of a trendline (or demand line or whatever) but also on how it is broken. Here the line is broken on unremarkable volume. Not only that, it appears to be finding tentative and possibly fragile support at the January swing high. Granted this is pretty soft, and price may have turned here for no particular reason, but noting these potentials enables one to be better prepared for whatever happens next. The SPX is behaving in a similar fashion, though the trading ranges, support and resistance levels, and channel are somewhat different. For example, the SPX remains in its channel while the Naz is showing -- or appears to show -- greater weakness. It's up to you, then, to weigh the probabilities and decide which way you want to go. If you want to go long AAPL, now's the time, with a stop below the "danger point", i.e., 119. You can wait for further confirmation if you like and chase the price, but the stop remains below the danger point, and the longer you wait, the farther you are from the stop. Or, if you see weakness that you can't ignore, you're welcome to go short. Keep in mind, however, that Wyckoff counseled shorting within the apex, in this case around 130, and managing a short this far away from that apex may be problematic. Better, therefore, to wait on a short until there is a rally attempt which looks to fail, short within that apex, and set the stop above the lower danger point (above the apex of the rally attempt rather than the apex at 133. Regardless of what you decide to do, continue following the major market average (Nasdaq) and major group (XLK) of which AAPL is a part. Their action, as well perhaps as the action of "sister" stocks, will help you decide on an appropriate course of action, whereas following only the stock may result in unnecessary guesswork and an outcome which is based largely on luck. Note: You might also want to track the Computer Hardware Index for a group that is not as all-encompassing as XLK.

I was going to wait until this weekend to post updates to these charts, but today's action prompts me to do it now for the reasons offered below the charts: AA has dropped below its trendline (using the 20p as a proxy for the trendline, since a moving average is a moving trendline). However, it appears to have found support in the middle of the trading range it created during the second half of April, 8 to 9.25 +/-. It could, of course, reverse and plummet. But today, it reversed course, if only for today. CAT appears to be seeking support at its trendline and at its last swing high, both at or about 35. Since there's nothing remarkable about the volume (ditto AA), it could reverse here, so be prepared (Wyckoff believed in anticipation). DD has dropped below its trendline but may find support at the lower end of the trading range it created, like AA, during the second half of April, at or about 26 to 28.5 (I emphasize the "about" part). DIS remains well above its trendline, and though it's been weak, it has also filled its gap. Having done so, buyers may regroup and work price higher (note how low the volume has been). Again, be prepared. GE has been as weak as AA and CAT, but, like CAT, it appears to be finding support at its trendline and at the top of the trading range created during the last half of April, at or about 12.5. Whether GE's weakness has anything or a lot to do with its financing arm I'll leave to those who just have to know why. For now, again, it appears to be finding support, and, again, nothing remarkable about the volume. MMM is behaving well, finding support at its trendline and at the top of the healthy volume upsurge on 4/24. If it fails here, it could drop all the way to 55, but within the context of the Canaries as a group, don't be surprised by a rally. If there is a rally of any kind, it could be brief since there is now that much more resistance to plow through. Therefore, one must be especially alert for whatever clues big money traders provide us with in order to avoid being caught in a pinch. As for these two, those big volume-no progress waves appear to have been distribution after all, and both are hanging onto their trendlines by their fingernails. Don't underestimate the bulls, This could be a real fight. Two others, XLK and XLY, took big hits by way of "active" distribution, i.e., selling on the way down, and they are both below their trendlines. One could surmise that the rise in XLY was purely speculative and that the dismal consumer spending numbers prompted longs to head for the exits without waiting for their change. I'll leave that to the Whys. As for now, these two bear watching.

I caution those who would report these posts, however, not immediately to assume that a new poster who brings something to the table is here for no other reason than to pick the pockets of TL members. Even Steidlmayer would have to make a first post, and for him to pretend that he had no connection to a website, had never written a book, nor was connected in any way to software would be at best unreasonable. Those who are here solely to fleece the unwary betray themselves quickly enough. I suggest that they be given at least some rope. Otherwise those who have something valuable to contribute might feel as though it's just not worth the trouble.

A true Wyckoff analysis, however, would already have prompted the trader to go short, though waiting for a retracement is perfectly acceptable.

Not so much a matter of trickery, though the "longs established weeks ago" are irrelevant to a solicitation which is based on a demonstration of real-time performance. More important, while this may be a fine Evans interpretation of the market, it has little to do with Wyckoff, and those who think it does would be wise to do their own investigations.

A sad day: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30727123/

Guess I don't need that 12pt bold purple hotlink after all Just click my name, below, or click the "blog" under my name. Since it does not incorporate indicators, though, it may not be up your alley. Therefore, I suggest you read the preview before spending any money.

I'm looking primarily for clarification. In the case of Richard Todd, I believe it was swansjr who first posted the link to Todd's website and referred to Todd himself, and those links are still there. It seemed only natural for Todd to drop in and address the posts. However, he was reported for having done so. Should these links have been posted? If not, are all commercial links of any kind to be deleted? If commercial links of any kind are allowed, what kind, and who may post them? I don't mean to sound picky, but this issue has arisen several times before, and there's probably no need to bring up the names again. But, as far as I know, it has not been resolved. For example, someone recently initiated a thread in the Wyckoff Forum for the sole purpose of soliciting subscribers for a newsletter and everyone seemed to think this was perfectly okay. I didn't want to become involved in this and closed the thread. There was a lot of drama about this, but since no one reported any of the posts, and the thread reopened in another forum, I assumed that some sort of change had been made in the rules. If no such change has been made, then there clearly is some confusion over exactly what is allowed and what is not. Before we assume that every member with a website or a book or whatever is a spammer and report him as such (which is not exactly a welcoming gesture if he's new), we should have generally understood and accepted standards. This, to me, is not a desired outcome.

I'd appreciate some clarification on this. Members are allowed to post links to their websites, so what exactly distinguishes a vendor from a member? When does one become the other?

Wyckoff suggested that the trader keep an eye on the leading stocks in order to gain insight into potential strength (at the bottom) or weakness (at the top) in advance of those who look only at the major averages. Using the Dow as a proxy for the market as a whole, the first set of charts consists of those which have been the leaders since the most recent upturn. It includes financials. The second set consists of the leaders over the same period but without the financials. Also worth noting is the possible distribution which occurred a couple of days ago in the Industrials and Materials. The market will tell you by its own action what you should do about all this.

There was distribution in the Materials and Industrials ETFs yesterday but I didn't bother to look at them until today. That would help explain today's action.

I wasted about four years trying to decipher the intent behind every move and disappeared down a number of fruitless though mildly interesting bunny tunnels. It's a natural thing to do, as the basic mechanics of trading ultimately become tedious and unfulfilling, at the very least in an intellectual sense, so of course one tries to go deeper and deeper to squeeze more meaning from the motion, indeed the profession as a whole. Or hole. Now I'm down to one free web-based chart and have let it all go, it's such a relief. Four monitors, 85 charts with various pointless divisions of time, range and volume, bid/ask order book overlaid with pit noise, TICK, VIX, put/call open interest, A/D and TRIN. WTF? Muddies the waters innit. Anything to avoid seeing the simplicity that was always there. I suppose it's kinda hard to accept that an innocent child with the proverbial crayon would probably do the job better, especially for the inquisitive male ego "But... but ... you mean that's all I have to do? Can't be right. So let's misovercomplexify it" as Bush might say. Notwithstanding I think basics still need to be grasped: the formations and background levels of commitment and emotion that manifest as, for instance, an even-handed fierce fight; a non-commital can't be bothered to fight; whoa that hurt and I grimly held on but now it really hurts capitulation; directional grind, whippy uncertainty etc. ... vague levels of view (or lack of it) and positioning. but beyond that I no longer care why anything is happening outside of the nebulous bigger picture. Perhaps it gets more exciting when you can see the less obvious coming, but you don't need to. Pursue another (parallel) career if you want creative rewards, enlightening explanations or a sense of having produced something whether physically or in the mysterious carapace at the top of our bodies. Accept that for the market to work it needs to occasionally misdirect -- savagely -- often during a dull moment (biggest moves often come out of these) but that it is, yes, generally quite obvious. Draw a few simple lines, exercise patience and hit those small areas of high probability again and again. That's all we can do. Thus it must follow that battles will indeed be fought in these obvious areas, as that's where the seasoned money will always be. It cannot be any other way. Our money, playing the waiting selective game. Not their money, cause they're impulsive, impatient, clueless, adrenaline diet disciples, or so rumour has it. --frugi

I sometimes forget that many of those who read the occasional "new post" have not necessarily read any other posts here or even know what this forum is all about. Therefore, I should point out that even though the sectors charted above have shown considerable strength, nearly all of them have serious resistance levels to get through, and they may have considerable difficulty in doing so. A failure to do so may in fact result in another test of the March lows. Don't assume, then, that long is the only way to go. Short may be the better option, but there should be volume clues before we begin a new leg down, if and when we do so.

A more detailed explanation of how I use the TICKQ is now included in my blog.

Posted these to the Trading Daily Charts thread, but not everybody reads that, so...

I posted a few charts for Gringo to the WF a few minutes ago that address both the Naz and the SPX. Channels, swing points, resistance. Just makes you go all wet.

Just so I don't ignite a stampede of people rushing to go long, I should point out that we are perilously close to resistance from two quarters: the channel in which the Naz finds itself and the swing high in November. Volume of advancers has also been weak. So anyone wanting to go long should consider waiting for the pullback (it's the Wyckoff thing to do:)). All of this can be plotted for the other major averages as well, of course. Edit: What the hell, as long as I'm at it . . . Volume of advancers has been better for the NYSE than for the Naz, tho that doesn't necessarily apply directly to the SPX.

Don't forget also to monitor the other sectors and the major averages, at least. Anyone having done so would have seen the strength prior to today's action. StockCharts makes it easy to do this with their "CandleGlance Groups". I've posted these before, but it won't hurt to post them again. Just try to ignore the MAs and the color-coding. Doesn't seem to be much weakness here, does there?

Given that your purpose in initiating the thread was and is to solicit contributors to your newsletter, and given that you and Eiger are on the same wavelength with regards to Evans, Williams et al, I suggest that you set up shop in the VSA forum. Or if you prefer to focus on making calls and logging your P&L, you may want to investigate brownsfan's thread. Either way, I'm closing the thread rather than deleting it so that you will have access to your charts and posts in the event that you want to repost them elsewhere.