Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
DbPhoenix
-
Content Count
3789 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Everything posted by DbPhoenix
-
-
Why not? The principles are the same, though the volatility on some instruments will kill you.
-
This was updated and posted yesterday, but, given where we are, it bears updating and posting again. And this probably isn't going to be much different from what everybody else is watching, but, again, given where we are, it may be worth posting. And this is a good example from today of what I've mentioned regarding finding unanticipated R in real time. It was not unusual for price to find equilibrium at the midpoint of the opening range at 0950 or so, but for price to turn on a dime an hour later at that exact level may have come as a surprise to those anticipating a test of 50 or 52.
-
"Box" is just another term for trading range, and since Wyckoff developed the concept of trading ranges, support and resistance, and equilibrium, they are central to his approach.
-
What I said was "I'll look to go long if price breaks through." But that doesn't necessarily mean buy the breakout. W didn't like breakouts. If one is going to wait for a breakout, it's better to wait for a retracement or buy any springboard that occurs after the breakout. This minimizes the risk of having one's panties twisted.
-
does Wyckoff recommends buying at R or selling at S if all evidence if buying/selling pressure is manifest there as per price action. No. Say NQ reaches 20 & forms a range with rejection at upper part of range & then a long downbar towards ,a sell would be consistent with W or not. If 20 is R, yes, though the bar is irrelevant. None of which is particularly helpful to you. Or I'd be surprised if it were. Two+ years ago, you were interested in Market Statistics. Then you became involved in VSA. Soon after that, you became interested in Wyckoff and opened a log. But you haven't posted for a year. So what you're posting and asking is only the most superficial level of what you're really asking, and I have no way of providing you with anything that's going to do you any good until I know what's going on in your head. If, for example, you're trying to reconcile and consolidate all that you've read regarding Market Statistics, VSA, and Wyckoff, you're in for a lot of work. If, on the other hand, you're throwing everything out, more or less, and starting over from scratch with Wyckoff, that's something else, though even there you may have a few things to unlearn. If you're truly in the weeds, I suggest you reopen your log, and I will comment on what you're doing if you like. If you feel that you're past that, you're welcome to use the Foresight thread to post your plans for the coming day. Since there are at least a couple of people doing the same thing, you can help each other at a time when the helping might actually do some good (as opposed, that is, to going over it in hindsight, after the opportunities are gone). If I have anything to add, I will. Then, after your trading day is over, review your trades in the CWS thread. Let me know what you want to do.
-
I'll refer you again to the first post of this thread, which includes a link to the explanation of AMT, and to the Trend thread. You will also be interested in the Volume thread. If your questions aren't answered there, or if you have any further questions, please ask them there as the focus of this thread is posting plans for the coming trading day. All the charts that have been posted in response to these questions should be helpful.
-
Thanks for the chart. If you post another, however, please do so in advance of the trading day.
-
Whether or not you should look for trading opportunities at the midpoints is not an easy question to answer. It depends in part on whether you like to trade trend -- or at least swings -- or scalp, how wide a stop you're able to tolerate, how comfortable you are with the whole idea of AMT, and so on. I'm sure you understand first that midpoints represent traders' search for equilibrium. Because of this, the midpoints also represent chop. If you like trading chop, then by all means go for it. But if you get beaten up by it, then avoid it. Trade instead the extremes of the ranges (if you have the patience, wait for the extremes of the larger ranges). If you have not yet read the material linked in the first post of the Foresight thread, that will likely answer whatever questions you may have. But keep in mind in the meantime that ranges are created by moves away from a mode, which is also often a mean. Buyers will attempt to move price away from that mode to the upside. Sellers will attempt to move price away from that mode to the downside. If these efforts fail, price will return to the equilibrium level, i.e., that level where most of the trades are occurring, i.e., the mode, and a range will be created. Eventually, however, price will exit this range for one reason or another (the reason itself is irrelevant) and trend up or down until one side or the other runs out of steam and traders again seek equilibrium. As I explained in the Foresight thread today regarding this particular chart, 20 was dead-on support for this move, and you don't have to have a tick chart to see the rejection down there. If you didn't buy that for whatever reason, there was another opportunity at 30 when price found R there, then S (and, yes, you'd have to go back a month to see how important 30 has been). But this isn't just a matter of buying the "middle" of the "box". There is a clear flip being made here from 30 as R to 30 as S which just happens to look like a range due to traders' sniffing around that level. Once price leaves this range, it finds support at the top of it four bars later. You could also enter here, but doing so might be a bit more nerve-wracking as price marches sideways with little movement up or down until it exits the range on its way to 47 (compare this sideways movement with the up/down/up wave movement of the previous box/range). Remember also that the longer you wait to enter, the more obvious the trend will be and the more other traders will mess with you as you try to get into it. At the very least, those who bought early will be scaling out, and that results in hesitations and mini-pullbacks, any of which might toss you out. And if you wait so long that you're nearing the end of the move, then you may not get even lunch money. The last is a common problem with traders who need multiple confirmations before they enter a trade, creating a conflict between their levels of information risk and price risk (the more information they require, the worse the price they get will be; the less information they require, the better the price). So I can't tell you what you should or shouldn't do. I trust support and resistance, in this case, 20. So I'd buy there or as close to it as possible, at least in part due to the obvious rejection of it. Once in, I'd look to the next level of R, then the next, then the next after that. But if you do not yet sufficiently trust S/R, or at least your ability to locate it in advance, then jumping into a trade at that level would be reckless.
-
Yes? .............
-
If you have no clear-cut, well-thought-out plan for the coming day, then suspend trading for the time being, read the linked threads in the first post to this thread, post your plans here, then review. This isn't about therapy; it's about putting together a plan, implementing it, then reviewing what went right and what went wrong. This takes longer in the short run, but saves enormous amounts of time -- and stress -- in the long run.
-
Some interesting interplays here as ranges begin to play with each other, with searches for equilibrium adding depth to the stew. This morning, a range from R at 52 and S at 42 was established, after which traders sought equilibrium at the midpoint: 47. Then price dropped to 20 and traders sought eq at the midpoint, 35, first finding R, then S, at 30 (remember how much fun 30 was from mid-September to mid-October?). Price then bumps up against the bottom of that long range from 38 to 55, then works its way toward the middle of that mess between 38 and 52. The point being that all of these moves can make good trades, though they will more likely make good trades if you know why price is doing what it's doing where it's doing it. You can then assign some probabilities regarding whether price will rise or fall or do little but drift at a certain level. And since a wider stop will be necessary, you can arrive at a more reasoned judgement regarding the amount of risk involved and whether or not you want to take it. And if you don't, so what? It's your money.
-
It's not a stupid question, though it has been asked before. Trendlines don't provide support and resistance, so you are less likely to find success with them as entry triggers than you are lateral price levels of support and resistance (see posted charts, particularly the one just above). What you may want to do instead is use demand and supply lines in order to provide yourself with a measure of momentum. See the Glossary.
-
Entering these old ranges is like visiting old friends. Remember 20, the bottom of the range on the 12th and the midpoint of the range on the 8th and 9th (see NAVEEVIa's chart)? Price dropped down to it like a stone after a WTF.
-
I believe you have an hour. After that, the Edit button probably disappears. However, if it's a post in the Wyckoff Forum, just let me know what you want to edit and I'll do it for you.
-
About this morning. Though I mentioned 52, I neglected to point out that 52 was also the top of that larger, older range that we discussed last week, the one reaching all the way back to 9/23. Being the top of that range may have given it a bit more fuel today (God knows something did), but even though we've addressed all this several times, I should have mentioned it yet again. Edit: Here's an update on that chart. And I'm sure that at least some of you have noticed that a couple of important sectors have double-topped, as have the transports. This isn't the first time they've double-topped this year, but it's still worth noting.
-
Those of you who have worked on application appear to understand the strategy. You understand the AMT behind it and you're able to locate what are most likely to be the important levels. But understanding it and trusting it are two different things, and, as I said to wj, the trust may take a while. Even so, it now comes down to a matter of tactics: exactly where you enter and how and where your stop is and how you manage the trade and so forth. And developing a set of tactics that you're comfortable with may take even longer than learning to trust the strategy. The first entry is the "Wyckoff" entry, your #1. Here the supply line is broken followed by a lower high on lower volume. Short that and place your stop behind the danger point, i.e., above 77. Do all that and you're home free. But boy does that take a lot of trust. More likely you'd tighten your stop at a level that seemed reasonable to you (placed for reasons other than fear). And you'd get shaken out. The next opportunity, your #2, is the one Wyckoff liked least, and you can see why. It still works if you place your stop behind the danger point. But that's a pretty wide stop. The third opportunity is almost a gift since you also have a TQ divergence. However, if you don't take it for some reason, there are two WTFs following, one at 1116 and one at 1131. But don't feel bad about not taking these trades. Feel good instead about not just jumping into something that seemed like a good idea but wasn't thought through. As I told wj, think about all those who tried to go short all the way up and go long all the way down. You knew what to do; you just weren't quite confident enough to do it. All that will come.
-
It takes a while to trust a strategy. Once you do, trading it will become easier. In the meantime, if you're frustrated, think of all those who tried to short all the way up and go long all the way back down.
-
How's that?.........
-
-
The persistent trading range between 38 and 55 (midpoint 47) may also be of unanticipated importance. Edit: There is also a tighter range from 47 to 57 extending back to last Monday. This may be why the market is settling in around 52 this morning. This may act as a trading range of its own or as a midpoint "zone" for the broader range. Unfortunately, these overlaps will continue until we get out of here, one way or the other.
-
A couple of Beginners' Forum threads that might be useful: How Do You Start Trading? Baby Steps
-
I saw the CWS post. Thanks for reviewing the trade from another perspective. When using the TQ to spot divergences, it's easy to overlook the classic Wyckoff setups, whether the test after a climax, a breakout from a springboard, or an ordinary test of support or resistance (or the higher low or lower high thereafter). But the TQ is the icing, not the cake.
-
Today has provided two more examples of trading price action, profitably, for the first, and avoiding a loss, for the second. Both of these come up repeatedly. First, after the housing report, price hits 74 on climactic volume. It then tests 74 just a couple of minutes later. No TQ divergence, but a test on lower volume and a lower high (one therefore has permission to take it whether there's a TQ div or not). Price then finds support at 60, which has popped up on the 20th and yesterday afternoon. This could be the lower limit of a new, higher range, or it could be the midpoint of a 40-80 range (or 45-75; whatever). If the latter, it could be choppy. Either way, price rebounds to the midpoint of the the last wave from 74 to 61, i.e., chop (or double chop, if 60 acts as a midpoint), and going either long or short is pretty much 50/50. Whatever one does will likely be sloppy and require a wider stop than is comfortable.
-
Here's an example of what I was talking about above. Price finds R at 78, as anticipated, and even tests it five minutes later. But you may not want to enter a trade before the open. So you watch, and you see that price, for whatever reason, finds support at 75. When it then drops below that level at the open, you wait for a test, which you get five minutes later, with a TQ div, and enter somewhere around 74.5.
